🚨US bankruptcies hit decade high recession levels in 2025, driven by poor corporate liquidity, inflation and tariffs. Industrials and Consumer Discretionary (non-essential goods and services) led filings through June. -S&P Market intelligence
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Bitcoin/Ethereum Spot ETF Flows: 24 July 2025
🟢Bitcoin ETFs: $226.7M net inflows
🟢Ethereum ETFs: $231.2M net inflows
This is ETH's 15th consecutive day of net inflows. Of the total $8.8bn net inflows since Eth's ETF listing, $4.1bn came in over the last 15 days. [Buy the crypto dip!]
🟢Bitcoin ETFs: $226.7M net inflows
🟢Ethereum ETFs: $231.2M net inflows
This is ETH's 15th consecutive day of net inflows. Of the total $8.8bn net inflows since Eth's ETF listing, $4.1bn came in over the last 15 days. [Buy the crypto dip!]
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🚨WHY AUGUST IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CRYPTO MELT-UP MONTH (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) The strong ETF flows are just a small taste of what's coming. The rotation from stocks into crypto is about to get more decisive.
1️⃣Goldman's high-vs-low short interest pair (shown above) just had its best 1-month performance since the 2021 meme craze. This measures the relative performance of high short interest stocks vs low short interest stocks.
2️⃣GS most shorted stocks index reached its highest level since June 2022
3️⃣NAAIM exposure: 81.07
Forced liquidations in meme stocks (1️⃣, 2️⃣) and extreme positioning (3️⃣) suggest a local top in equities.
Once the top is confirmed and becomes obvious to everyone, a tsunami of liquidity will begin rotating into crypto in search of more returns, following the early wave of $4bn added to the ETH spot ETF.
BUY THE CRYPTO DIP!
1️⃣Goldman's high-vs-low short interest pair (shown above) just had its best 1-month performance since the 2021 meme craze. This measures the relative performance of high short interest stocks vs low short interest stocks.
2️⃣GS most shorted stocks index reached its highest level since June 2022
3️⃣NAAIM exposure: 81.07
Forced liquidations in meme stocks (1️⃣, 2️⃣) and extreme positioning (3️⃣) suggest a local top in equities.
Once the top is confirmed and becomes obvious to everyone, a tsunami of liquidity will begin rotating into crypto in search of more returns, following the early wave of $4bn added to the ETH spot ETF.
BUY THE CRYPTO DIP!
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Bull Case
Total stablecoin market cap: $255.39bn [new ATH]
Total stablecoin market cap: $265bn [+10bn in 2 weeks]
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🚨WHY STABLECOIN ISSUERS HAVE EFFECTIVELY BECOME SIFIs (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) The GENIUS act makes holding a regulated stablecoin safer than keeping dollars in a bank through the following provisions:
1) Requires stablecoin issuers to hold an official license from the US government
2) Imposes monthly audits
3) Mandates strict 1:1 backing for every token, either in cash or US Treasury securities
4) Requires issuers to redeem stablecoins at par value upon request
Unlike traditional banks, stablecoin issuers are not authorized to lend out the money deposited by investors. As a result, their reserves are not fractional.
Stablecoin issuers provide critical infrastructure in the US Treasury market and GENIUS now defines them as even less risky than some systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs).
The GENIUS Act not only confirms our bull thesis that stablecoins will act as an unprecedented liquidity flywheel, but expands it by establishing a systemic incentive for liquidity to be displaced from banks into stables (and therefore crypto) by effectively redefining them as an emergent regulatory class of SIFIs.
1) Requires stablecoin issuers to hold an official license from the US government
2) Imposes monthly audits
3) Mandates strict 1:1 backing for every token, either in cash or US Treasury securities
4) Requires issuers to redeem stablecoins at par value upon request
Unlike traditional banks, stablecoin issuers are not authorized to lend out the money deposited by investors. As a result, their reserves are not fractional.
Stablecoin issuers provide critical infrastructure in the US Treasury market and GENIUS now defines them as even less risky than some systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs).
The GENIUS Act not only confirms our bull thesis that stablecoins will act as an unprecedented liquidity flywheel, but expands it by establishing a systemic incentive for liquidity to be displaced from banks into stables (and therefore crypto) by effectively redefining them as an emergent regulatory class of SIFIs.
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Bull Case
🚨WHY AUGUST IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CRYPTO MELT-UP MONTH (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) The strong ETF flows are just a small taste of what's coming. The rotation from stocks into crypto is about to get more decisive. 1️⃣Goldman's high-vs-low short interest…
🚨Global equities SELL SIGNAL: In July institutional investors' cash level as a share of assets fell to 3.9% from 4.8% in April. Cash allocations under 4% are a sell signal.
➡️SPX500 median 4 week loss (since 2011) after sell signal is 2% [A lot of profits are about to rotate into crypto from stocks, BTFD!]
➡️SPX500 median 4 week loss (since 2011) after sell signal is 2% [A lot of profits are about to rotate into crypto from stocks, BTFD!]
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Bull Case
🚨WHY AUGUST IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE CRYPTO MELT-UP MONTH (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) The strong ETF flows are just a small taste of what's coming. The rotation from stocks into crypto is about to get more decisive. 1️⃣Goldman's high-vs-low short interest…
Goldman's speculative trading indicator has seen one of the sharpest increases on record.
➡️Signal: short term consolidation followed by a longer term rally [Based on this indicator there is around one year of bull left from here]
➡️Signal: short term consolidation followed by a longer term rally [Based on this indicator there is around one year of bull left from here]
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Bull Case
🚨Financial conditions are back to as loose as they were prior to the Fed tightening cycle [They're about to get looser too. BTFD!]
The inflation hedge signal (pictured in our post from 23 July) should trigger next week when June's core PCE officially crosses over the Financial Conditions Index (assuming projections are correct).
Because Trump has successfully cornered the Fed, supported by recessionary signals in bankruptcy and labor market data, our base case has shifted from expecting a bullish outlook over the next 3 months (driven by dovish patience) to a bullish outlook over the next 12 months (in anticipation of a dovish pivot).
This puts us on the same trajectory as the '99 Dot Com bull market, with which there has already been a strong correlation since early 2023.
Because Trump has successfully cornered the Fed, supported by recessionary signals in bankruptcy and labor market data, our base case has shifted from expecting a bullish outlook over the next 3 months (driven by dovish patience) to a bullish outlook over the next 12 months (in anticipation of a dovish pivot).
This puts us on the same trajectory as the '99 Dot Com bull market, with which there has already been a strong correlation since early 2023.
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🚨Trump: We have reached an agreement with the EU
*EU to enable tariff-free trade with multiple countries
*EU to buy $750B worth of U.S. energy
*EU to invest $600B more in the U.S. economy
*15% flat auto tariff agreed with EU
*EU to enable tariff-free trade with multiple countries
*EU to buy $750B worth of U.S. energy
*EU to invest $600B more in the U.S. economy
*15% flat auto tariff agreed with EU
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🚨JPM: Hedge Fund short covering last week was a 3 standard deviation event. That means higher than 99,7% of weekly short covering in JPM's history.
[who will buy meme stocks now that shorts have been rekt? Profits will rotate to crypto, BTFD!]
[who will buy meme stocks now that shorts have been rekt? Profits will rotate to crypto, BTFD!]
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🚨Trump: Powell has to cut interest rates this week [a surprise cut is more likely than people seem think]
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Bull Case
CNBC's Kelly Evans: Can I just say I find it highly amusing that crypto stablecoins are now being cited as helpful source of demand of government debt? [article] The stablecoin put narrative has now officially been picked up by the mainstream media. [BTFD!…
🚨Another very strong $77bn US 6-Month Bill Auction today (3 more left for July)
⚪High rate 4.12% (prev 4.115)
🟢Bid-to-cover ratio 3.36 (prev 3.06)
[The stablecoin put is here to stay, BTFD!]
⚪High rate 4.12% (prev 4.115)
🟢Bid-to-cover ratio 3.36 (prev 3.06)
[The stablecoin put is here to stay, BTFD!]
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Bull Case
🚨JPM: Hedge Fund short covering last week was a 3 standard deviation event. That means higher than 99,7% of weekly short covering in JPM's history. [who will buy meme stocks now that shorts have been rekt? Profits will rotate to crypto, BTFD!]
The meme stocks rally that started in July has outperformed the S&P500 by a factor of 3.3x. [All profits will rotate into crypto in August. BTFD before it's too late!]
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Bull Case
🚨WHY STABLECOIN ISSUERS HAVE EFFECTIVELY BECOME SIFIs (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) The GENIUS act makes holding a regulated stablecoin safer than keeping dollars in a bank through the following provisions: 1) Requires stablecoin issuers to hold an official…
🚨US Treasury to borrow $1.007 trln in September quarter, sees end-cash balance of $850 bln [A lot of stablecoins will be printed this year to soak up all that debt, that's why GENIUS made keeping money in stablecoins safer than keeping them in a bank. BTFD!]
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Bull Case
🚨WHY THE NEXT TWO MONTHS FAVOR THE BULLS (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Last week UBS introduced a proprietary AI tracking system which assesses the policy tone of three major central banks and measures them on a hawkish/dovish scale. The UBS Fed sentiment…
Nick Timiraos: Trump may get what he wants, but not this week.
➡️ Fed is divided in 3 camps over whether to resume lowering interest rates. Waller and Bowman could dissent this week demanding rate cuts right away.
➡️ The internal debate is unfolding amid intense and unusual political pressure from the White House.
➡️ Tariff inflation, labour market data will influence the decision
[The Fed won't get hawkish any time soon, the inflation hedge trade has never been stronger. Buy the crypto dip!]
➡️ Fed is divided in 3 camps over whether to resume lowering interest rates. Waller and Bowman could dissent this week demanding rate cuts right away.
➡️ The internal debate is unfolding amid intense and unusual political pressure from the White House.
➡️ Tariff inflation, labour market data will influence the decision
[The Fed won't get hawkish any time soon, the inflation hedge trade has never been stronger. Buy the crypto dip!]
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