🚨Fed rate cut bets are now the lowest since February 2025. The consensus after today's CPI is that the boost on inflation from tariffs will start appearing in the data soon:

➡️Boston Fed Collins: tariffs will boost inflation over the second half of this year in the vicinity of 3% by year's end. Surveys show businesses intend to pass on some of the tariff costs to consumers
➡️Bank of America on CPI: Today's report provided ample evidence that tariffs are being passed onto consumers.
➡️Kay Haigh (Goldman Sachs AM): Price pressures are expected to strengthen over the summer; July and August CPI reports will be important hurdles to clear
➡️Seema Shah (Principal Asset Management): Tariffs take several months to feed through inflation data. With higher tariffs it would be wise for the Fed to remain on the sidelines
➡️Skyler Weinand (Regan Capital): We are now even further from the Fed's 2% target, which means the Fed is in no position to cut until at least September.

[Crypto is an inflation hedge, BTFD!]

🚨ICYMI:

*Genius Act re-vote today. Trump says he has secured the necessary votes after yesterday's halt [expect to see more stablecoin put narrative in a MSM outlet near you soon]

*More rumours of Powell getting fired for cause or resigning are circulating [Trump needs to get this done before tariff inflation bubbles up in the data or it will be too late]

🚨ETH/BTC technical break out confirmed after coiling under resistance for 8 weeks. The next leg up is indeed ETH led, just like the chart seemed to anticipate in May!

➡️ ETH/BTC up +6% this week
➡️ break above 200DMA for the first time in 1 year

BTC.D has topped, this is where battered down alts start outperforming BTC and smart crypto money starts rotating slowly into alts while Big Money rotates from stocks into BTC & Eth.

[Stocks 🔄 BTC & Eth 🔄 alts]

🚨Trump: I am more conservative than GOP'ers on firing Powell. Hassett is someone we'd consider for Fed chaur [The time window to fire Powell is closing, he must do it soon and he knows it]

🚨Stablecoin single vault APYs are starting to pop. Top movers in the top 5 by volume (prev = 6 days ago):

SUSDE 5.01%; prev 4.05%; 30DM 4.19%
USD0++ 9.1%; prev 6.8%; 30DM 6.82%
USDS 6.3%; prev 5.85%; 30DM 5.4%
USDC (fluid) 7.22%; prev 5.89%; 30DM 6.32%

Liquidity seems to support this rally, which is a strong sign of strength. [BTFD, we're just getting started!]

Bitcoin/Ethereum Spot ETF flows 16 July 2025:

🟢 Bitcoin ETFs: $799.5M net inflows

🟢 Ethereum ETFs: $716.63M net inflows

🚨WHY PCE WILL COME IN HOT AND CRYPTO WILL PUMP (exclusive analysis by @bullcase)

June's core PCE will be reported on July 31.

➡️ BoA just revised its core PCE estimate upward yesterday: we are tracking core PCE to rise by 0.3% m/m (0.31% unrounded) in June. If our forecast proves correct, then the y/y rate should still increase from 2.7% to 2.8%, and it could be on track to hit 3.0% as soon as July. [Fed's target is 2%]
➡️ In response to PPI, Goldman revised its core PCE estimate slightly lower from 2.77% to 2.74%, but still higher than May's 2.7%. [PPI excludes imports and inflation this time is driven by tariffs]
➡️ Core CPI YoY came in warm this week, 2.7 vs 2.6 forecast. [CPI includes imports]
➡️ Cleveland Fed's model didn't react to PPI and still projects 2.66% for June and 2.71% for July

Many hints that PCE is going to come in higher, but the Fed is still in dovish patience mode.

Trump's bullying on Powell has put hawks on the backfoot. A Fed that hesitates to hike rates as tariff inflation bubbles to the surface is another form of jet fuel for the bulls, because it's effectively a cut (negative real interest rates!).

An actual cut would be even better, but that can only happen in summer while the data are mixed. Also, Trump would need to fire Powell quickly.

A September cut is looking less and less likely. But nobody is talking of a September hike, which is bullish!

Crypto is an inflation hedge and the inflation hedge trade, which started with Powell's press conference on May 7 that defined dovish patience, is about to get a boost. A core PCE that starts to warm up while the Fed is scared to mention hikes is even more bullish than a rate cut. That would pave the way to a bullish August.

🚨We're moving past Bitcoin season based on the following parameters:

Alt season = 75% or more of the top 50 coins outperform Bitcoin over the last 90 days.
Bitcoin season = 25% or fewer of the top 50 coins outperform Bitcoin over the last 90 days.

CURRENT LEVEL: 39

We're still far from alt season mania (level 75), but the rotation out of BTC has started. [Slowly first, then all at once]

🚨Jim Bianco (starting to notice something's wrong with inflation): The 10-year TIPS Inflation breakeven rate has continued its uptrend over the last year. Not what you want to see if your demand is a 300 bps Fed rate cut. Or is this the fear of what a 300 bps cut will do to the economy? [Look away Jim, nothing to see here]

Fed dove/hawk score: 2.8 [dovish patience innit]

🚨WHAT IF WALLER JUST GAVE US THE INFLATION DENIAL NARRATIVE THAT WILL PUMP EVERYTHING FOR LONGER? (exclusive analysis by @bullcase)

Fed's Christopher Waller's remarks yesterday suggest this bull market may last even longer than we all thought.

This not so much for his support of a 25 bp cut at July’s FOMC, that was already known.

It's his statement on inflation being near target excluding tariffs that opens the doors of Valhalla for bulls. Excluding tariffs sounds like a great inflation denial narrative that may prevail at the Fed, especially if Waller replaces Powell.

In 2021 the inflation denial narrative was that inflation is transitory.

In 2025-26 the denial narrative will likely be that inflation is near target excluding tariffs. For this narrative to expire we need confirmation that inflation is sticky.

Each inflation print takes 1 month and tariff inflation is just now starting to show in the data (weakly). With so many prints still needed for confirmation, the bulls have plenty of runway left to charge ahead.

BTFD!

Jeremy Siegel on CNBC: Bitcoin itself is a threat to the dollar as a reserve currency

🚨Over the past 7 days, Ethereum and memecoins have led other sectors in terms of performance. Bitcoin and privacy coins are behind with the weakest returns so far. [altseason is here baby]

🚨Coinbase's App Store ranking has climbed from over 350 in June to 116 today. [We're early, BTFD!]

🚨Fed Chair Jerome Powell hit with criminal referral by House GOP, accusing him of lying under oath about the $2.5B Eccles Building renovation. [bet moar]

🚨The MOVE Index continues to make new lows (83 today).

As noted ten days ago (86), this index has historically served as a reliable early indicator of shifts in Federal Reserve rhetoric.

Its current trend suggests that despite tariff inflation, the Fed is likely to get more dovish before turning hawkish. [High inflation with a dovish Fed is a dream scenario for the bulls, BTFD!]

🚨The probability that the Fed will not cut rates by September has risen from below 10% at the end of June, to nearly 50% today.

WHY NO CUT IN SEPTEMBER IS BULLISH THANKS TO FED INDEPENDENCE RISK (exclusive analysis by @bullcase) Truflation, TIPS, Core CPI have been ticking higher which means we don't have to wait for September, the rate cut is happening as we speak (real rates are declining).

1) IORB is the interest rate the Fed pays commercial banks for balances held at the Fed.

Real IORB = Nominal IORB (no change) — Inflation Rate (⬆️)

If inflation runs hot but the nominal IORB doesn't change, then the real IORB decreases which creates an incentive for this liquidity ($3tn) to be withdrawn and invested elsewhere (risk-on).

2) EFFR is the rate at which banks loan money.

Real EFFR = Nominal EFFR (no change) — Inflation Rate (⬆️)

If inflation runs hot, but the EFFR stays the same, then banks are incentivized to loan more of their balances ($18tn). Higher inflation means $21tn go more risk-on.

➡️ We’re seeing an inflation market pricing a premium around the Fed independence risk (BofA Rates Strategist Meghan Swiber)

➡️The nightmare scenario is the Fed loses its independence, tariff inflation is big and the fiscal policy turns out to be more simulative ahead of mid-term election, and it's all happening at the same time (Columbia Threadneedle Rates strategist Ed Al-Hussainy)

➡️If the FOMC actually follows Waller’s advice, a backdrop of rising market-based measures of inflation expectations means higher long-term yields are more likely. Ironically, those outcomes would put the Fed under even more pressure from Trump to cut borrowing costs. (Bloomberg macro strategist Edward Harrison)

Fed independence risk is another name for inflation denial. For as long as the Fed is scared to hike because of political pressure ('Fed Independence Risk'), the market will stay in risk-on mode.

We're back to 2021, when inflation was running hot but the Fed downplayed it as temporary for 1 full year.

BTFD and ignore the rate FUD. Everything will rip.