Bitcoin/Ethereum Spot ETF Flows: 9th July 2025
🟢 Bitcoin ETFs: $215.7M net inflows
🟢 Ethereum ETFs: $211.3M net inflows
🟢 Bitcoin ETFs: $215.7M net inflows
🟢 Ethereum ETFs: $211.3M net inflows
🤯2🔥1
Bull Case
3 month volatility trending lower but still higher than 30 day vol. Soon systematic strategies and vol control funds, which are created to minimize volatility impact, can start buying again. [Vol control funds are top buyers, rotation into crypto imminent.]
Nomura's Charlie McElligott: Hedge if you can [confirms stocks near exhaustion as upside has been front run. Crypto melt up imminent, BTFD!]
*McElligott: The realized Vol melt [down] is facilitating a substantial reallocation back into equities from the Vol Control-universe.
*McElliggot: These dynamics have then contributed to an ever-present and passive bid which has been well socialized, ie front-run by retail & discretionary [independent investors]
*McElliggott: Vol Control funds could buy $42 billion in equities over 2 weeks if we get 1.5% average daily moves, and $82 billion if daily moves average just 0.5% [professional managers buy the top, hot money will be rotating into crypto]
Thank you Charlie for confirming our thesis of imminent crypto melt up due to the stock market top. @bullcase
*McElligott: The realized Vol melt [down] is facilitating a substantial reallocation back into equities from the Vol Control-universe.
*McElliggot: These dynamics have then contributed to an ever-present and passive bid which has been well socialized, ie front-run by retail & discretionary [independent investors]
*McElliggott: Vol Control funds could buy $42 billion in equities over 2 weeks if we get 1.5% average daily moves, and $82 billion if daily moves average just 0.5% [professional managers buy the top, hot money will be rotating into crypto]
Thank you Charlie for confirming our thesis of imminent crypto melt up due to the stock market top. @bullcase
🍾4😈3❤1
🚨QQQ massive bearish divergence. Bloomberg flashed strong demand yesterday. [Stocks rally is on its final legs, crypto melt up imminent]
🔥7😈2
Stablecoin single vault APYs are hovering around 30-day averages indicating most liquidity is still sidelined.
Still no hot money in sight, still very early in the move. [Ignore FUD, BTFD every time!]
Still no hot money in sight, still very early in the move. [Ignore FUD, BTFD every time!]
🍾6🤯2❤1😈1
🚨WHY THE NEXT TWO MONTHS FAVOR THE BULLS (exclusive analysis by @bullcase)
Last week UBS introduced a proprietary AI tracking system which assesses the policy tone of three major central banks and measures them on a hawkish/dovish scale.
The UBS Fed sentiment score shows that since 2020 the MOVE index (which tracks bond market volatility) has anticipated Fed tone shifts by approximately 1 month (the early 2023 spike was caused by the SVB collapse and reinforced Fed's dovishness). These shifts are shown by the violet areas in the MOVE chart.
Today UBS's sentiment score shows that the Fed remains neutral ("wait and see"). However, speaker dispersion has increased, with Bowman and Waller leaning dovish but Powell and Kugler increasingly hawkish.
The MOVE index, which did a lower low this week, gives a strong hint that the Fed is at least 2 months away from shifting to a more hawkish tone and therefore the sentiment score is likely to gravitate downward (more dovishness).
Last week UBS introduced a proprietary AI tracking system which assesses the policy tone of three major central banks and measures them on a hawkish/dovish scale.
The UBS Fed sentiment score shows that since 2020 the MOVE index (which tracks bond market volatility) has anticipated Fed tone shifts by approximately 1 month (the early 2023 spike was caused by the SVB collapse and reinforced Fed's dovishness). These shifts are shown by the violet areas in the MOVE chart.
Today UBS's sentiment score shows that the Fed remains neutral ("wait and see"). However, speaker dispersion has increased, with Bowman and Waller leaning dovish but Powell and Kugler increasingly hawkish.
The MOVE index, which did a lower low this week, gives a strong hint that the Fed is at least 2 months away from shifting to a more hawkish tone and therefore the sentiment score is likely to gravitate downward (more dovishness).
🔥5🍾3🤯1
🚨July 14-18 the U.S. Congress will host "Crypto Week":
🟢 CLARITY Act (clear the rules for crypto)
🟢 Anti-CBDC Act (blocking digital controlled gov money)
🟢 GENIUS Act (greenlight web3 companies as stablecoin issuers) will be discussed this week.
Pro crypto regulatory events tend to favor altcoin market share. [One more tailwind for alt season. BTFD and hold!]
🟢 CLARITY Act (clear the rules for crypto)
🟢 Anti-CBDC Act (blocking digital controlled gov money)
🟢 GENIUS Act (greenlight web3 companies as stablecoin issuers) will be discussed this week.
Pro crypto regulatory events tend to favor altcoin market share. [One more tailwind for alt season. BTFD and hold!]
🔥4🍾2🤯1
🚨WHY WE'RE WATCHING WRESBAL CLOSELY (exclusive analysis by @bullcase)
We're treating WRESBAL as an early top indicator for this cycle.
Assuming no change in rates, WRESBAL should stay flat until at least October (base case). If WRESBAL decisively dips under $3tn (with short term Bill auctions) then that would signal that stablecoin money has run out (highly unlikely scenario until at least October).
WRESBAL is the money commercial banks keep at the Fed. For short term bill purchases, banks shouldn't touch WRESBAL reserves as bills will be bought by stablecoin issuers with their reserves.
When commercial banks start decreasing WRESBAL to buy short term bills that would be a strong indicator of tight liquidity, recession and market top. [Our bull thesis is based on data, not hopium. BTFD!]
We're treating WRESBAL as an early top indicator for this cycle.
Assuming no change in rates, WRESBAL should stay flat until at least October (base case). If WRESBAL decisively dips under $3tn (with short term Bill auctions) then that would signal that stablecoin money has run out (highly unlikely scenario until at least October).
WRESBAL is the money commercial banks keep at the Fed. For short term bill purchases, banks shouldn't touch WRESBAL reserves as bills will be bought by stablecoin issuers with their reserves.
When commercial banks start decreasing WRESBAL to buy short term bills that would be a strong indicator of tight liquidity, recession and market top. [Our bull thesis is based on data, not hopium. BTFD!]
🍾9👍1
Bull Case
Nomura's Charlie McElligott: Hedge if you can [confirms stocks near exhaustion as upside has been front run. Crypto melt up imminent, BTFD!] *McElligott: The realized Vol melt [down] is facilitating a substantial reallocation back into equities from the Vol…
🚨The sharp cooldown in 1M & 3M realized volatility continues as of July 11. Volatility control & CTAs (trend chasing funds) will keep increasing their stock exposure this week marking a local top for stocks (there is nobody else left to buy).
Rotation into crypto has only just began. Vol control buys support SP500 at these highs, when the top becomes obvious in the chart a mass rotation will start that will energize crypto's bull. [BTFD, ignore FUD]
Rotation into crypto has only just began. Vol control buys support SP500 at these highs, when the top becomes obvious in the chart a mass rotation will start that will energize crypto's bull. [BTFD, ignore FUD]
🔥6🤝2