Bull Case
🚨The Nasdaq is in a strong V-shaped rally, similar to the one we saw during Covid. This type of rally reflects sharp reversals in financial policy. Back then, the reversal was the massive injection of liquidity to support the economy during Covid. Today's…
🚨🚨US Department of Treasury PR: Initial increases in bill issuance will be focused on shorter-tenor benchmark securities: specifically, the 4-, 6-, and 8-week bills.
*Treasury does not anticipate issuing cash management bills (CMBs) to rebuild its cash balance, preferring to rely on increases in benchmark bill issuance. [This is the bullish policy shift we've talking about: massive and sustained issuance of short term debt is now policy. Stablecoin issuers will be buying.]
*Treasury expects that its cash balance will reach approximately $500 billion at the end of July. [Covid-era liquidity flooding incoming.]
Ignore macro FUD, BTFD. @bullcase
*Treasury does not anticipate issuing cash management bills (CMBs) to rebuild its cash balance, preferring to rely on increases in benchmark bill issuance. [This is the bullish policy shift we've talking about: massive and sustained issuance of short term debt is now policy. Stablecoin issuers will be buying.]
*Treasury expects that its cash balance will reach approximately $500 billion at the end of July. [Covid-era liquidity flooding incoming.]
Ignore macro FUD, BTFD. @bullcase
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🚨Bloomberg's Torsten Slok on inconsistent markets:
*Slok: The bond market continues to price the next Fed move to be a cut, with the expectation that growth is slowing down.
*Slok: Cyclicals trading higher relative to defensives, with the expectation that growth is about to accelerate
*Slok: This is not consistent. Either the bond market is wrong, and rates must move highe, or equity markets are wrong, and stocks have to move lower because of slowing growth.
The market is consistent, Slok is behind the curve. The Treasury is flooding the market with short term bills, which flattens the yield curve.
The falling OIS forward swap is following the yield curve and creating a false recession signal.
🌊 QE, Covid style liquidity flooding is back. BTFD and hold spot. Biggest bull is upon us.
@bullcase
*Slok: The bond market continues to price the next Fed move to be a cut, with the expectation that growth is slowing down.
*Slok: Cyclicals trading higher relative to defensives, with the expectation that growth is about to accelerate
*Slok: This is not consistent. Either the bond market is wrong, and rates must move highe, or equity markets are wrong, and stocks have to move lower because of slowing growth.
The market is consistent, Slok is behind the curve. The Treasury is flooding the market with short term bills, which flattens the yield curve.
The falling OIS forward swap is following the yield curve and creating a false recession signal.
🌊 QE, Covid style liquidity flooding is back. BTFD and hold spot. Biggest bull is upon us.
@bullcase
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Bitcoin/Ethereum Spot ETF Flows: 9th July 2025
🟢 Bitcoin ETFs: $215.7M net inflows
🟢 Ethereum ETFs: $211.3M net inflows
🟢 Bitcoin ETFs: $215.7M net inflows
🟢 Ethereum ETFs: $211.3M net inflows
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Bull Case
3 month volatility trending lower but still higher than 30 day vol. Soon systematic strategies and vol control funds, which are created to minimize volatility impact, can start buying again. [Vol control funds are top buyers, rotation into crypto imminent.]
Nomura's Charlie McElligott: Hedge if you can [confirms stocks near exhaustion as upside has been front run. Crypto melt up imminent, BTFD!]
*McElligott: The realized Vol melt [down] is facilitating a substantial reallocation back into equities from the Vol Control-universe.
*McElliggot: These dynamics have then contributed to an ever-present and passive bid which has been well socialized, ie front-run by retail & discretionary [independent investors]
*McElliggott: Vol Control funds could buy $42 billion in equities over 2 weeks if we get 1.5% average daily moves, and $82 billion if daily moves average just 0.5% [professional managers buy the top, hot money will be rotating into crypto]
Thank you Charlie for confirming our thesis of imminent crypto melt up due to the stock market top. @bullcase
*McElligott: The realized Vol melt [down] is facilitating a substantial reallocation back into equities from the Vol Control-universe.
*McElliggot: These dynamics have then contributed to an ever-present and passive bid which has been well socialized, ie front-run by retail & discretionary [independent investors]
*McElliggott: Vol Control funds could buy $42 billion in equities over 2 weeks if we get 1.5% average daily moves, and $82 billion if daily moves average just 0.5% [professional managers buy the top, hot money will be rotating into crypto]
Thank you Charlie for confirming our thesis of imminent crypto melt up due to the stock market top. @bullcase
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🚨QQQ massive bearish divergence. Bloomberg flashed strong demand yesterday. [Stocks rally is on its final legs, crypto melt up imminent]
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Stablecoin single vault APYs are hovering around 30-day averages indicating most liquidity is still sidelined.
Still no hot money in sight, still very early in the move. [Ignore FUD, BTFD every time!]
Still no hot money in sight, still very early in the move. [Ignore FUD, BTFD every time!]
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🚨WHY THE NEXT TWO MONTHS FAVOR THE BULLS (exclusive analysis by @bullcase)
Last week UBS introduced a proprietary AI tracking system which assesses the policy tone of three major central banks and measures them on a hawkish/dovish scale.
The UBS Fed sentiment score shows that since 2020 the MOVE index (which tracks bond market volatility) has anticipated Fed tone shifts by approximately 1 month (the early 2023 spike was caused by the SVB collapse and reinforced Fed's dovishness). These shifts are shown by the violet areas in the MOVE chart.
Today UBS's sentiment score shows that the Fed remains neutral ("wait and see"). However, speaker dispersion has increased, with Bowman and Waller leaning dovish but Powell and Kugler increasingly hawkish.
The MOVE index, which did a lower low this week, gives a strong hint that the Fed is at least 2 months away from shifting to a more hawkish tone and therefore the sentiment score is likely to gravitate downward (more dovishness).
Last week UBS introduced a proprietary AI tracking system which assesses the policy tone of three major central banks and measures them on a hawkish/dovish scale.
The UBS Fed sentiment score shows that since 2020 the MOVE index (which tracks bond market volatility) has anticipated Fed tone shifts by approximately 1 month (the early 2023 spike was caused by the SVB collapse and reinforced Fed's dovishness). These shifts are shown by the violet areas in the MOVE chart.
Today UBS's sentiment score shows that the Fed remains neutral ("wait and see"). However, speaker dispersion has increased, with Bowman and Waller leaning dovish but Powell and Kugler increasingly hawkish.
The MOVE index, which did a lower low this week, gives a strong hint that the Fed is at least 2 months away from shifting to a more hawkish tone and therefore the sentiment score is likely to gravitate downward (more dovishness).
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