🚨Chinese PMI data for June:
*Manufacturing: 49.5 -> 49.7. As expected, but still the 3rd consecutive month of contraction
*Services sector: 50.3 -> 50.5. Highest level since March, thanks to 'deal with the US', and ongoing stimuli to boost domestic demand and curb deflation. [more stimulus coming, send everything]
*Manufacturing: 49.5 -> 49.7. As expected, but still the 3rd consecutive month of contraction
*Services sector: 50.3 -> 50.5. Highest level since March, thanks to 'deal with the US', and ongoing stimuli to boost domestic demand and curb deflation. [more stimulus coming, send everything]
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🚨Goldman's Rich P:
*Month-end and quarter-end ahead, in theory should bring substantial global equity supply. Unclear how much has already been pre-traded or whether offsetting flows will come from the US.
*Regardless of today, the path forward is clear, this is statistically one of the best seasonal periods of the year. But historically, the July rally has been almost entirely a large-cap phenomenon
*The main storyline remains the progress toward the July 9th trade deadlines
*Base case: delays, maybe a few examples made (Japan?), then last minute extensions. [BTFD]
*Month-end and quarter-end ahead, in theory should bring substantial global equity supply. Unclear how much has already been pre-traded or whether offsetting flows will come from the US.
*Regardless of today, the path forward is clear, this is statistically one of the best seasonal periods of the year. But historically, the July rally has been almost entirely a large-cap phenomenon
*The main storyline remains the progress toward the July 9th trade deadlines
*Base case: delays, maybe a few examples made (Japan?), then last minute extensions. [BTFD]
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JPM trading desk: We think the market setup is bullish and expect a wave of new all-time highs as we gain clarity on the budget/tax bill and trade policy entering earnings season where expectations are too low
🚨US Supreme Court has rejected Coinbase user James Harper's appeal against the IRS.
*Harper argued that the IRS violated his privacy rights under the Fourth Amendment by asking Coinbase for user data.
*The court dismissed the appeal without explanation.
*This means the IRS is still allowed to access user data from 3rd-party platforms like Coinbase. [Tax dodgers in disbelief!]
*Harper argued that the IRS violated his privacy rights under the Fourth Amendment by asking Coinbase for user data.
*The court dismissed the appeal without explanation.
*This means the IRS is still allowed to access user data from 3rd-party platforms like Coinbase. [Tax dodgers in disbelief!]
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Bitcoin/ Ethereum Spot ETF Flows: 2nd July 2025
🟢Bitcoin ETFs: $407.8M net inflows
🔴Ethereum ETFs: -$1.9M net outflows
🟢Bitcoin ETFs: $407.8M net inflows
🔴Ethereum ETFs: -$1.9M net outflows
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Bessent: President Trump's agenda is growth agenda. Once we pass the OBBB, US economic growth will reach levels unseen since post-WW2. [Self reinforcing loops, policy firehoses, and market still short. Ignore FUD, BTFD! July will be glorious]
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Bull Case
UST backed stablecoins are this administration's wildcard to both refinance the US gov debt and maintain USD's role as global reserve currency. Bonds will stay bid, stablecoin market cap will keep making new ATHs, crypto will moon. -Bull Case Insider
🚨The Nasdaq is in a strong V-shaped rally, similar to the one we saw during Covid. This type of rally reflects sharp reversals in financial policy. Back then, the reversal was the massive injection of liquidity to support the economy during Covid.
Today's reversal lies in the shift from an initially 'old-school libertarian' Trump (low taxes, limited spending, and minimal debt) to a 'neoliberal' Trump (massive debt increases, freewheeling spending, and trade restrictions).
Our loyal followers will remember how, since April, we've been telling everyone to BTFD. Our bull thesis rests on the unique role of stablecoins this cycle. Stablecoins will freewheel capital into crypto and fuel the biggest bull ever.
When, in April, we pointed out stablecoin issuers' massive UST holdings and their unique strategic position in funding U.S. government debt, bears retorted that stablecoins bid the short end, not the long end. Trump answered them a few days ago, stating: “I’ve instructed my people not to do any debt beyond nine months or so.”
Now, a massive issuance of short-term T-bills will have an effect very similar to QE. Today, the Treasury is stepping in for the Fed, effectively promoting real monetary easing. Like in the old Covid days, we're about to enter a new phase of up only.
Ignore macro FUD. BTFD. @bullcase
Today's reversal lies in the shift from an initially 'old-school libertarian' Trump (low taxes, limited spending, and minimal debt) to a 'neoliberal' Trump (massive debt increases, freewheeling spending, and trade restrictions).
Our loyal followers will remember how, since April, we've been telling everyone to BTFD. Our bull thesis rests on the unique role of stablecoins this cycle. Stablecoins will freewheel capital into crypto and fuel the biggest bull ever.
When, in April, we pointed out stablecoin issuers' massive UST holdings and their unique strategic position in funding U.S. government debt, bears retorted that stablecoins bid the short end, not the long end. Trump answered them a few days ago, stating: “I’ve instructed my people not to do any debt beyond nine months or so.”
Now, a massive issuance of short-term T-bills will have an effect very similar to QE. Today, the Treasury is stepping in for the Fed, effectively promoting real monetary easing. Like in the old Covid days, we're about to enter a new phase of up only.
Ignore macro FUD. BTFD. @bullcase
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