*Crypto falling like the war is escalating
*Gold falling like a peace deal is near
*Oil prices are rising like the war is escalating
*Yields are rising like a peace deal is near
*Natural gas prices are rising like the war is escalating
*Silver falling like a peace deal is near
Or simply, this war is not big enough to knock markets off the rails. Gold has topped, crypto is consolidating before its next leg higher, oil is pricing in higher tensions and Strait of Hormuz risk. The market is just following its cycle. [Ignore geopol FUD, BTFD.]
*Gold falling like a peace deal is near
*Oil prices are rising like the war is escalating
*Yields are rising like a peace deal is near
*Natural gas prices are rising like the war is escalating
*Silver falling like a peace deal is near
Or simply, this war is not big enough to knock markets off the rails. Gold has topped, crypto is consolidating before its next leg higher, oil is pricing in higher tensions and Strait of Hormuz risk. The market is just following its cycle. [Ignore geopol FUD, BTFD.]
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In case you missed it:
🚨IRAN:
*Trump admin officials are pitching the president's two-week timeline on whether to launch an attack as a chance to let diplomacy play out. (ABC)
*Trump reposted a quote on Truth Social that said “[Trump] is the guy who killed Qasem Soleimani. You think he's afraid to take out Forgo? Of course not.” (Truth)
*Citi: Brent crude could jump to around $90 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is closed; a prolonged halt to shipping through the crucial waterway would be unlikely. (BBG)
⛴TRADE:
*Canada to support the domestic steel sector, including a curb on imports. PM Carney said the government would also consider higher tariffs on US steel and aluminum depending on the progress made on a new economic-and-security deal. (WSJ)
*Japan's top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said that trade negotiations with the U.S. "remained in a fog" despite efforts by both sides to seek an agreement. He also said Japan won't fixate on the looming date for so-called reciprocal tariffs to go back to higher levels, signaling that the Asian nation stands ready for the possibility that talks will drag on. (RTRS/BBG)
*China's overseas shipments of rare earth magnets halved in May from April, tumbling to their lowest levels in more than five years due to export curbs. (RTRS)
*US tariff hikes on small packages from China caused a 40% drop in shipments in May, with the value of small parcels sent from China to the US falling to just over $1 billion. (BBG)
🌍MACRO:
*JPMorgan is sticking to its bearish view on the US dollar, arguing that a combination of moderating US growth, robust global policy support, and waning investor appetite for US assets continues to point toward further dollar weakness. (Forex Live)
*Fidelity: Financial markets have seen the worst of Donald Trump’s tariff threats, helping make midcap stocks an attractive buy as the outlook improves
*A number of Australia’s biggest investors say they are cutting their holdings of US Treasuries, citing concern over President Donald Trump’s tariff and tax plans. (BBG)
[Ignore macro/geopol FUD, BTFD!]
🚨IRAN:
*Trump admin officials are pitching the president's two-week timeline on whether to launch an attack as a chance to let diplomacy play out. (ABC)
*Trump reposted a quote on Truth Social that said “[Trump] is the guy who killed Qasem Soleimani. You think he's afraid to take out Forgo? Of course not.” (Truth)
*Citi: Brent crude could jump to around $90 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is closed; a prolonged halt to shipping through the crucial waterway would be unlikely. (BBG)
⛴TRADE:
*Canada to support the domestic steel sector, including a curb on imports. PM Carney said the government would also consider higher tariffs on US steel and aluminum depending on the progress made on a new economic-and-security deal. (WSJ)
*Japan's top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said that trade negotiations with the U.S. "remained in a fog" despite efforts by both sides to seek an agreement. He also said Japan won't fixate on the looming date for so-called reciprocal tariffs to go back to higher levels, signaling that the Asian nation stands ready for the possibility that talks will drag on. (RTRS/BBG)
*China's overseas shipments of rare earth magnets halved in May from April, tumbling to their lowest levels in more than five years due to export curbs. (RTRS)
*US tariff hikes on small packages from China caused a 40% drop in shipments in May, with the value of small parcels sent from China to the US falling to just over $1 billion. (BBG)
🌍MACRO:
*JPMorgan is sticking to its bearish view on the US dollar, arguing that a combination of moderating US growth, robust global policy support, and waning investor appetite for US assets continues to point toward further dollar weakness. (Forex Live)
*Fidelity: Financial markets have seen the worst of Donald Trump’s tariff threats, helping make midcap stocks an attractive buy as the outlook improves
*A number of Australia’s biggest investors say they are cutting their holdings of US Treasuries, citing concern over President Donald Trump’s tariff and tax plans. (BBG)
[Ignore macro/geopol FUD, BTFD!]
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🚨Iranian retaliatory response imminent.
The Iranian response will be similar to the retaliation for the op that killed Soleimani, it will be de-escalatory and just something to save face. BTFD, ignore geopol FUD.
The Iranian response will be similar to the retaliation for the op that killed Soleimani, it will be de-escalatory and just something to save face. BTFD, ignore geopol FUD.
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Bitcoin/ Ethereum Spot ETF Flows: 23rd June 2025
🟢Bitcoin ETFs: $350.43M net inflows
🟢Ethereum ETFs: $100.78M net inflows
🟢Bitcoin ETFs: $350.43M net inflows
🟢Ethereum ETFs: $100.78M net inflows
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Trump: Israel and Iran fighting so long and so hard that they don't know "what the fuck they're doing". [ww3 has been cancelled, send everything]
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🚨Chinese PMI data for June:
*Manufacturing: 49.5 -> 49.7. As expected, but still the 3rd consecutive month of contraction
*Services sector: 50.3 -> 50.5. Highest level since March, thanks to 'deal with the US', and ongoing stimuli to boost domestic demand and curb deflation. [more stimulus coming, send everything]
*Manufacturing: 49.5 -> 49.7. As expected, but still the 3rd consecutive month of contraction
*Services sector: 50.3 -> 50.5. Highest level since March, thanks to 'deal with the US', and ongoing stimuli to boost domestic demand and curb deflation. [more stimulus coming, send everything]
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🚨Goldman's Rich P:
*Month-end and quarter-end ahead, in theory should bring substantial global equity supply. Unclear how much has already been pre-traded or whether offsetting flows will come from the US.
*Regardless of today, the path forward is clear, this is statistically one of the best seasonal periods of the year. But historically, the July rally has been almost entirely a large-cap phenomenon
*The main storyline remains the progress toward the July 9th trade deadlines
*Base case: delays, maybe a few examples made (Japan?), then last minute extensions. [BTFD]
*Month-end and quarter-end ahead, in theory should bring substantial global equity supply. Unclear how much has already been pre-traded or whether offsetting flows will come from the US.
*Regardless of today, the path forward is clear, this is statistically one of the best seasonal periods of the year. But historically, the July rally has been almost entirely a large-cap phenomenon
*The main storyline remains the progress toward the July 9th trade deadlines
*Base case: delays, maybe a few examples made (Japan?), then last minute extensions. [BTFD]
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JPM trading desk: We think the market setup is bullish and expect a wave of new all-time highs as we gain clarity on the budget/tax bill and trade policy entering earnings season where expectations are too low