Bitcoin/ Ethereum Spot ETF Flows: 16th June 2025

🟢Bitcoin ETFs: $408.6M net inflows

🟢Ethereum ETFs: $21.4M net inflows

🚨Rumors are proliferating that Trump will enter the war against Iran. A broader conflict would spike oil prices, raise recession risks and increase pressure on the Fed to ease sooner. Emergency cut unlikely tomorrow unless something breaks, but a war would still accelerate the rate cut cycle mid term. BTFD

@bullcase

Trump meets with Security Team

President Trump expected to give a "major address" soon

🚨All US bases in ME are on lockdown with orders to shelter in place immediately. US STRIKES ON IRAN IMMINENT

🚨Genius Act has passed the Senate. Final vote still pending.

Trump spoke by phone with Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu -Axios

🚨🚨BREAKING - An Iranian negotiating team led by senior officials have landed in Muscat, Oman [ignore geopolitics FUD, BTFD]

🚨WSJ: Trump has approved attack on Iran [TACO, BTFD!]

*Crypto falling like the war is escalating
*Gold falling like a peace deal is near
*Oil prices are rising like the war is escalating
*Yields are rising like a peace deal is near
*Natural gas prices are rising like the war is escalating
*Silver falling like a peace deal is near

Or simply, this war is not big enough to knock markets off the rails. Gold has topped, crypto is consolidating before its next leg higher, oil is pricing in higher tensions and Strait of Hormuz risk. The market is just following its cycle. [Ignore geopol FUD, BTFD.]

🚨WH Press Sec. Leavitt: US Envoy Witkoff has been in touch with Iran, and correspondence has continued.
*Trump thinks there is a substantial chance of Iran negotiations. [send everything]

In case you missed it:

🚨IRAN:
*Trump admin officials are pitching the president's two-week timeline on whether to launch an attack as a chance to let diplomacy play out. (ABC)
*Trump reposted a quote on Truth Social that said “[Trump] is the guy who killed Qasem Soleimani. You think he's afraid to take out Forgo? Of course not.” (Truth)
*Citi: Brent crude could jump to around $90 a barrel if the Strait of Hormuz is closed; a prolonged halt to shipping through the crucial waterway would be unlikely. (BBG)

⛴TRADE:
*Canada to support the domestic steel sector, including a curb on imports. PM Carney said the government would also consider higher tariffs on US steel and aluminum depending on the progress made on a new economic-and-security deal. (WSJ)
*Japan's top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said that trade negotiations with the U.S. "remained in a fog" despite efforts by both sides to seek an agreement. He also said Japan won't fixate on the looming date for so-called reciprocal tariffs to go back to higher levels, signaling that the Asian nation stands ready for the possibility that talks will drag on. (RTRS/BBG)
*China's overseas shipments of rare earth magnets halved in May from April, tumbling to their lowest levels in more than five years due to export curbs. (RTRS)
*US tariff hikes on small packages from China caused a 40% drop in shipments in May, with the value of small parcels sent from China to the US falling to just over $1 billion. (BBG)

🌍MACRO:
*JPMorgan is sticking to its bearish view on the US dollar, arguing that a combination of moderating US growth, robust global policy support, and waning investor appetite for US assets continues to point toward further dollar weakness. (Forex Live)
*Fidelity: Financial markets have seen the worst of Donald Trump’s tariff threats, helping make midcap stocks an attractive buy as the outlook improves
*A number of Australia’s biggest investors say they are cutting their holdings of US Treasuries, citing concern over President Donald Trump’s tariff and tax plans. (BBG)

[Ignore macro/geopol FUD, BTFD!]

🚨WSJ: FISERV to launch stablecoin platform for 3000+ banks [the stablecoin put is here to stay, BTFD]

🚨Iranian retaliatory response imminent.

The Iranian response will be similar to the retaliation for the op that killed Soleimani, it will be de-escalatory and just something to save face. BTFD, ignore geopol FUD.

Alerts suggest Iran's de-escalatory strike will target the Al Udeid airbase in Qatar, where about 10000 US troops were based before US hit Iran. Safe bet US was warned in advance making it easier to protect troops. [Ignore geopol FUD, BTFD]

🚨Trump now after Iran's attack. No mention of it, like it didn't happen. [The 'war' is over, send everything!]

Trump: Powell will be in Congress today and will have to explain why he is refusing to lower the Rate

🚨At Monday's close CRCL reached a market capitalization of $63.89 billion, surpassing the current USDC circulating supply of approximately $61.68 billion.
*Cathie Wood has sold 415,000 shares of Circle, worth approximately $109.5 million. [The stablecoin put is here to stay]

Bitcoin/ Ethereum Spot ETF Flows: 23rd June 2025

🟢Bitcoin ETFs: $350.43M net inflows

🟢Ethereum ETFs: $100.78M net inflows

Oil's price has fully retraced its gains from geopol tensions [ww3 has been cancelled]