Bull Case
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Content here is for informational purposes only, always DYOR before making decisions.
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Barclay's: the pain trade remains to the upside.
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Gold down 0.7% on the day [the fake trade war has lost its grip on markets, nobody cares]
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US Treasury yields down [Panicans BTFO]
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June has been down only once in the past decade [higher we go]
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🚨Total stablecoin market cap: $247.48bn [new ATH, +$7bn in May]
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World/US: same dead cat bounce as in 2017 and 2021 [ignore macro FUD, BTFD]
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Tom Lee this morning:
*S&P 500 target is $6600 and now feels more reasonable to achieve than in February
*A new bull market started on April 7th because of massive deleveraging and sentiment collapse which created a new opportunity
*Housing and auto insurance was 75% of the reason for inflation, now housing is going negative and core inflation is coming down aggressively so rate cuts feel likely
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🚨If you’re scared to BTFD, do it scared, but do it regardless!
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Crypto funds post $286M net inflows in week ending May 30 despite heavy selling -Coinshares
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🚨Gold up nearly 2% [gold has topped, rotation into crypto underway]
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EU warns it may accelerate retaliatory measures if President Donald Trump follows through on his 50% tariff threats on steel and aluminum [TACO, BTFD!]
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Bull Case pinned a photo
Manufacturing PMI -0.3pt from expectations but still rose +1.8pts from April moving further into expansion which it entered at the start of the year.
*New orders: rose to the strongest degree in three months, demand from within the United States was noted as the primary driver of growth
*Production: Despite the uplift in order books, production volumes were trimmed marginally for a third month in a row.
*Backlogs: fell again, albeit modestly
*Sentiment: growing expectations among the panel that disruption to markets caused by tariffs will dissipate in the months ahead
*Employment: An increase in labor capacity was registered in May, with a net increase in employment signaled for the first time in three months.
*Delivery Times: Supplier delivery delays (due to tariffs) were also noted, linked to growing stock shortages at vendors
*Prices: Latest data showed that raw material price inflation remained high, despite dropping to a three-month low
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🚨184 million logins and passwords stolen for Google, Microsoft, online banking, social media, etc.
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🚨🚨Trump and Xi are likely to speak this week -CNBC [TACO, BTFD]
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Why the trade war was always a fake war
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Flows since Liberation day low: crypto and short duration bonds on top. [$20bn from short duration bonds will fuel the parabolic phase of this bull]
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🚨Silver just broke a 12 year high [smelling a rate cut, BTFD]
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Hiring dipped in May [smelling a rate cut, BTFD]
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ActivTrades Senior Analyst Ricardo Evangelista: I think that a weakening in the US labor market will increase bets on a dovish Fed, so on the Fed cutting interest rates, (which) would be positive for gold.
GS's Robert Quinn: Silver rally driven by contraction in services sector activity and the slowest private payrolls growth since March 2023 in May. Bad US data increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely deliver at least two rate cuts by year-end.
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