Fed's Musalem: Even after May 12 de-escalation, tariffs likely to lead to labor market softening, higher prices
*Musalem: Tariffs as likely to have temporary as persistent effect on inflation
*Musalem: If trade tensions are durably de-escalated, inflation could head back to target, labor market remain resilient, and current monetary policy would remain appropriate

🚨Flash survey conducted on Monday by Deutsche Bank researchers showed that 80% of its 450 respondents held a similar view to Moody's in thinking that the path of U.S. debt looks unsustainable.
*DB'S Jim Reid: I suspect there would be no consensus around when this will become a serious market issue. Maybe that’s a poll for another day. [they don't know about the stablecoin put yet]

Apollo: 10 downside risks to the US economic outlook [learn to ignore these 10 macro FUD talking points]

🚨Japanese 40Y bond yield going parabolic

Hedge Fund short selling surges by $25bn, the largest amount for at least the past 10 years.

BTC IV still under 50 [calm before the storm]

🚨Sovereign debt crisis ➡️ debase or die ➡️ debase (stablecoin put, tokenize government debt). We're in a transition phase where risk free assets (like US/JP gov bonds) no longer behave like risk free, when that happens liquidity looks for alternatives. The alternative is BTC & crypto. Yields going parabolic, hedge fund positioning extreme short, BTC IV still under 50 make this the perfect time for BTC to go parabolic in the next few weeks. BTFD every time, macro FUD is bullish BTC & crypto -@bullcase insider

🚨UMich Survey 1Y inflation expectations through the roof. This is the kind of thing that accelerates rotation into inflation hedges such as Gold/BTC/crypto. [gold has already topped, so this is jet fuel for crypto]

🚨🚨BTC blasts through ATH

🚨US Rep. Lawler: Made great progress on tax bill, waiting for details.
*Lawler: Feeling much better about tax bill now.
[Tax cuts are a done deal because without them Trump's tariffs create drag on growth.]

Yields breaking out. Stablecoin put incoming. Market is risk on. Buy moar.

🚨US 20-Year Bond Auction: Accepted yield 5.047% vs 5.035% when issue yield.
*Bid-to-cover ratio 2.46 ($2.46 bid for every USD offered, weak)
*Amount: $16bn

An ugly 20Y US bond auction is bullish here, not bearish. Macro Panicans are selling, you should be buying. [BTFD]

US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $608.99 million on 21 May 2025

US House Rules Committee approved Trump's sweeping tax-cut bill which is now scheduled for a vote in the full House in the pre-dawn hours of Thursday. [This is Trump's Big Beautiful Bill without which tariffs create recessionary drag on the GDP. It will pass in a blink of an eye]

Gold down nearly 1% intraday. [Gold has topped, market is rotating into crypto as inflation hedge]

Nomura: Treaury flows from foreign domiciled funds snap back into negative territory [Moody's downgrade pushing them towards gold right at the top, like clockwork]

Trump's $3.8tn "tax less and spend more" Beautiful Bill clears the full House in a narrow 215-214 win. Senate next. [that's the source of all US deficit macro FUD today. Ignore it all and BTFD]

🚨US Supreme Court signals Trump can't fire Powell
*US Supreme Court on whether Trump can fire members of Federal Reserve's Board of Governors: We disagree. The Federal Reserve is a uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that follows in the distinct historical tradition of the First and Second Banksof the United States. -ruling

EB Research's Jussi Hiljanen: Eroding trust in U.S. policy, unattractive valuations after accounting for FX hedging costs, and a shift towards European bonds are putting structural upward pressure on long U.S. yields. [ignore macro FUD]

US Treasury Sec. Bessent: There is an equilibrium rate for tariffs and I think we will reach that rate.
*Bessent: Tariff barriers or nontariff trade barriers are coming down, so friction is decreasing.
*Bessent: This will lead to several hundred billion dollars a year of revenue, which will correlate to several hundred billion less bonds that
US Treasury has to issue.

SPX on pace for 3rd worst week since September [Macro Panicans are panicking again. BTFD]