Bull Case
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Content here is for informational purposes only, always DYOR before making decisions.
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Yardeni Research: It's been a remarkable recovery since April 8. Stock market sectors hit the hardest have rebounded the most. [everyone knew it was the bottom]
Swiss National Bank Chairman: There is currently no alternative to US Treasuries.
🚨The SEC has postponed its decision on VanEck's spot Solana ETF.
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🚨The Senate is probably not going to finish its crypto bill on stablecoin this week - Semafor.
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🚨🚨The GENIUS stablecoin bill passed the Senate procedural vote by 66 to 32. [send everything]
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Moody's downgrade of US treasuries may force HK pension funds to sell. [make them sell USTs so stablecoin issuers can enter for cheap. Another downgrade please and thank you, Moody's.]
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🚨BlackRock and Circle's cooperation agreement revealed
Blackrock-Circle MOU: Both parties agree that Circle would hand over at least 90% of its US dollar custody reserves (excluding bank deposits) to BlackRock for management
Blackrock-Circle MOU: BlackRock will be the preferred partner for Circle's stablecoin reserves; Blackrock promises to not issue competitive US dollar payment stablecoins in the next 4 years
Blackrock-Circle MOU: Circle Reserve Fund (managed by BlackRock) will invest primarily in U.S. Treasury bills and notes, repurchase agreements secured by Treasuries, and cash
-SEC filing
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SPX back above pre-election day price [bear market has been cancelled]
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Citi expects the USD to weaken following this week's G7 meetings
*Citi: US may request currency appreciation from some countries as part of tariff negotiations, with Japan, China, and other East Asian nations likely to be targeted
*Citi: Bessent to stress central bank roles in currency moves and highlight how foreign reserve investment strategies impact U.S. interest rates
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🚨Oh no! Gold outflows through the roof, highest since 2022. [gold has topped, rotation into crypto has already begun]
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JPM Jamie Dimon: "It's getting ugly out there. Between earnings and valuation compression, you could be looking at -10% SPX impact" [ignore macro FUD, BTFD]
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Fed's Musalem: Even after May 12 de-escalation, tariffs likely to lead to labor market softening, higher prices
*Musalem: Tariffs as likely to have temporary as persistent effect on inflation
*Musalem: If trade tensions are durably de-escalated, inflation could head back to target, labor market remain resilient, and current monetary policy would remain appropriate
🚨Flash survey conducted on Monday by Deutsche Bank researchers showed that 80% of its 450 respondents held a similar view to Moody's in thinking that the path of U.S. debt looks unsustainable.
*DB'S Jim Reid: I suspect there would be no consensus around when this will become a serious market issue. Maybe that’s a poll for another day. [they don't know about the stablecoin put yet]
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Apollo: 10 downside risks to the US economic outlook [learn to ignore these 10 macro FUD talking points]
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🚨Japanese 40Y bond yield going parabolic
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Hedge Fund short selling surges by $25bn, the largest amount for at least the past 10 years.
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BTC IV still under 50 [calm before the storm]
🚨Sovereign debt crisis ➑️ debase or die ➑️ debase (stablecoin put, tokenize government debt). We're in a transition phase where risk free assets (like US/JP gov bonds) no longer behave like risk free, when that happens liquidity looks for alternatives. The alternative is BTC & crypto. Yields going parabolic, hedge fund positioning extreme short, BTC IV still under 50 make this the perfect time for BTC to go parabolic in the next few weeks. BTFD every time, macro FUD is bullish BTC & crypto -@bullcase insider
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🚨UMich Survey 1Y inflation expectations through the roof. This is the kind of thing that accelerates rotation into inflation hedges such as Gold/BTC/crypto. [gold has already topped, so this is jet fuel for crypto]
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🚨🚨BTC blasts through ATH
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🚨US Rep. Lawler: Made great progress on tax bill, waiting for details.
*Lawler: Feeling much better about tax bill now.
[Tax cuts are a done deal because without them Trump's tariffs create drag on growth.]
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