Bull Case
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Content here is for informational purposes only, always DYOR before making decisions.
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Stocks futures lower as markets react to Moody's downgrade of the US credit outlook. [macro FUD as usual, BTFD.]
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🚨US senators expect to vote again tonight on advancing legislation to create rules for stablecoins -sources [this will pass tonight because stablecoins buy US debt and that's exactly what the US needs right now with US30Y yields at 5%]
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WH Sr. Adviser Hassett: I would not be surprised if there are more trade deals this week.
*Hassett: Moody's decision is backward looking
*Hassett: We'll keep a close eye on what the Chinese have agreed to
*Hassett: The economy will continue to take off
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🚨Class action lawsuit has been filed against Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy alleging misappropriation of customers funds.
*Lawsuit claims: The company downplayed the risks of its oversized exposure to Bitcoin
*Lawsuit claims: Executives made exaggerated or incomplete statements that may have misled investors [Jim Chanos 4 days ago: We're shorting MSTR and buying Bitcoin. BTFD]
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🚨Fed's Jefferson (Vice Chair): Vital central banks stand ready to provide liquidity.
Jefferson: CBs must try to minimize moral hazard
Jefferson: doesn't comment on outlook for rates, economy
Jefferson: Currency, bank reserves foundation of safe liquidity.
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China issues statement on US adjusting chip export controls: US undermines consensus reached in Geneva talks, asks the US to correct wrongdoings. [ignore these clowns, just BTFD]
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🚨🚨Trump may be able to fire Fed Chair Powell
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Yardeni Research: It's been a remarkable recovery since April 8. Stock market sectors hit the hardest have rebounded the most. [everyone knew it was the bottom]
Swiss National Bank Chairman: There is currently no alternative to US Treasuries.
🚨The SEC has postponed its decision on VanEck's spot Solana ETF.
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🚨The Senate is probably not going to finish its crypto bill on stablecoin this week - Semafor.
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🚨🚨The GENIUS stablecoin bill passed the Senate procedural vote by 66 to 32. [send everything]
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Moody's downgrade of US treasuries may force HK pension funds to sell. [make them sell USTs so stablecoin issuers can enter for cheap. Another downgrade please and thank you, Moody's.]
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🚨BlackRock and Circle's cooperation agreement revealed
Blackrock-Circle MOU: Both parties agree that Circle would hand over at least 90% of its US dollar custody reserves (excluding bank deposits) to BlackRock for management
Blackrock-Circle MOU: BlackRock will be the preferred partner for Circle's stablecoin reserves; Blackrock promises to not issue competitive US dollar payment stablecoins in the next 4 years
Blackrock-Circle MOU: Circle Reserve Fund (managed by BlackRock) will invest primarily in U.S. Treasury bills and notes, repurchase agreements secured by Treasuries, and cash
-SEC filing
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SPX back above pre-election day price [bear market has been cancelled]
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Citi expects the USD to weaken following this week's G7 meetings
*Citi: US may request currency appreciation from some countries as part of tariff negotiations, with Japan, China, and other East Asian nations likely to be targeted
*Citi: Bessent to stress central bank roles in currency moves and highlight how foreign reserve investment strategies impact U.S. interest rates
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🚨Oh no! Gold outflows through the roof, highest since 2022. [gold has topped, rotation into crypto has already begun]
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JPM Jamie Dimon: "It's getting ugly out there. Between earnings and valuation compression, you could be looking at -10% SPX impact" [ignore macro FUD, BTFD]
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Fed's Musalem: Even after May 12 de-escalation, tariffs likely to lead to labor market softening, higher prices
*Musalem: Tariffs as likely to have temporary as persistent effect on inflation
*Musalem: If trade tensions are durably de-escalated, inflation could head back to target, labor market remain resilient, and current monetary policy would remain appropriate
🚨Flash survey conducted on Monday by Deutsche Bank researchers showed that 80% of its 450 respondents held a similar view to Moody's in thinking that the path of U.S. debt looks unsustainable.
*DB'S Jim Reid: I suspect there would be no consensus around when this will become a serious market issue. Maybe that’s a poll for another day. [they don't know about the stablecoin put yet]
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Apollo: 10 downside risks to the US economic outlook [learn to ignore these 10 macro FUD talking points]
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