Bull Case
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Content here is for informational purposes only, always DYOR before making decisions.
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🚨Fed's Powell: Officials agree strategic language around both shortfalls of employment and average inflation need to be reconsidered.
*Powel: Fed is undertaking a two-day review of revisions to its framework adopted in 2020.
*Powell: Framework needs to be robust to many circumstances, including a world where supply shocks may be more frequent and persistent.
*Powell: Idea of a moderate overshoot of inflation following weakness became irrelevant given the levels inflation reached.
*Powell: Revisions to Fed communications are also being considered.
*Powell: Certain aspects of the Fed's approach are permanent, such as the focus on inflation expectations.
*Powell: Zero-lower bound still a risk and should be addressed in the framework, though it is no longer a base case given current level of policy rates.
🚨PPI MoM: -0.5% vs 0.2% exp. This is the lowest MoM PPI change since Covid lockdowns
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Elliott: Trump’s trade war risks US capital flight -FT
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US leveraged ETF assets are up +$30 billion, or 40%, over the past month, to ~$105 billion. [risk appetite is through the roof]
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JP Morgan: Bitcoin has more upside than gold going into the second half of the year.
US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $114.96 million on 15 May 2025
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Total stablecoin market cap: $243.15bn [new ATH]
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US30Y yields slide below 4.9% [stablecoin put doing its thing]
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🚨ETH options show bearish sentiment with traders looking for short term downside protection (negative RRs, high Flys) rather than chasing the rally. [pamp it higher]
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🚨Global Times, a newspaper owned by the Communist Party, just said that the China-US 90 day tariff truce should be extended [Ackman's 180 day pause is coming to life]
*Global Times: The window for mutually beneficial cooperation should extend far beyond a mere 90-day period. Hopefully, the US side will build on the outcomes of the recent talks and continue to meet China halfway
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Fed's Bostic: Sees 1 rate cut this year amid uncertainty
*Bostic: Economic growth may be 1% or 0.5% this year
*Bostic: Expect slower growth but recession isn't in my outlook [the recession has been cancelled just like that]
*Bostic: US-China de-escalation changes my outlook 'a little'
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🚨Philly Fed data for May: expectations for new orders showed the largest monthly spike since index's inception in May 1968. [the recession has been cancelled]
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🚨Spot gold down 2% so far today [double top confirmed, rotation into crypto has started]
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Consumer inflation expectations through the roof. [crypto is an inflation hedge]
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🚨UMich consumer sentiment read falls to 50.8, second least on record (since 1946) and less than a point from the worst which was 50.0 on June '22. [Ignore macro FUD, BTFD. Data is distorted by the fake trade war that never happened.]
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Basel Medical Group in talks to purchase $1B worth of Bitcoin [this is not bearish]
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Galaxy Digital in talks with the SEC to tokenize its own stock and other equities [this is not bearish either]
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🚨US, EU resume tariff talks after weeks of deadlock. The discussions cover tariffs, digital trade, and investment. EU trade chief Sabine Weyand urged caution, noting some US tariffs, especially on steel and autos, are likely to stay. [Ignore these clowns and their fake deadlocks. Just BTFD]
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🚨China's US Treasury securities holdings $765bln in March vs 784 bln in Feb
🚨Moody's ratings downgrades United States ratings to Aa1 from Aaa; changes outlook to stable
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