🚨Fed's Goolsbee: Some part of April inflation represents lagged nature of data; Fed still holding its breath.
*Goolsbee: It will take time for current inflation trends to show up in the data.
*Goolsbee: Right now is a time for the Fed to wait for more information, try to get past the noise in the data.
*Goolsbee: Cannot jump to conclusions about long-term trends given all the short-term volatility.
*Goolsbee: It will take time for current inflation trends to show up in the data.
*Goolsbee: Right now is a time for the Fed to wait for more information, try to get past the noise in the data.
*Goolsbee: Cannot jump to conclusions about long-term trends given all the short-term volatility.
🚨US not seeking to weaken dollar as part of trade deals -sources
*Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains the sole official handling FX issues and has reiterated the strong dollar stance. -sources
*Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent remains the sole official handling FX issues and has reiterated the strong dollar stance. -sources
Neil Dutta of Renaissance Macro: Market not pricing in the slowdown. Financial conditions have eased after US-China tariff de-escalation but economic risks persist.
*Dutta: June and July data will be key in determining whether the economy truly stabilizes [BTFD, ignore macro FUD]
*Dutta: June and July data will be key in determining whether the economy truly stabilizes [BTFD, ignore macro FUD]
What is the stablecoin put? It refers to the idea that when yields on US Treasuries, like the 30-year, reach critical levels (eg 5%), stablecoin issuers such as Circle and Tether step in to buy Treasuries. As a result, going forward, each time yields get close to these levels we should see large crypto pumps that pull liquidity away from stocks and gold. This will stabilize bond markets while simultaneously injecting fresh liquidity into the crypto ecosystem to fuel higher highs. The bull case is simple: BTFD because this is going to be one of the biggest altseasons ever. Ignore macro FUD. @bullcase
😈6
🚨US regulators to ease the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) in the coming months, signaling a continued push for deregulation under the Trump administration. -sources [devalue or die]
*Bank lobbyists have long opposed the rule, arguing it penalizes institutions for holding low-risk assets such as US Treasuries and limits their capacity to support the $29 trillion government debt market and extend credit
*Bank lobbyists have long opposed the rule, arguing it penalizes institutions for holding low-risk assets such as US Treasuries and limits their capacity to support the $29 trillion government debt market and extend credit
😈4
Trump informed Apple CEO he did not want him to build in India.
*Trump: Markets pay attention when Federal Reserve speaks.
*Trump: Bessent has great relationship with China.
*Trump: Markets pay attention when Federal Reserve speaks.
*Trump: Bessent has great relationship with China.
🚨China Commerce Ministry: Next, China and the U.S. will maintain dialogue on trade issues based on Geneva talks consensus.
*China Commerce Ministry, on US Commerce Department curbs on Huawei AI chips' global usage: Threatens stability of global semiconductor supply chain.
*China Commerce Ministry, on US Commerce Department curbs on Huawei AI chips' global usage: Urges US to correct its practices, will take steps to defend Chinese enterprises' legitimate rights and interests.
*China Commerce Ministry on US 232 tariffs: Typical act of unilateralism and protectionism. Urge US to lift Section 232 tariffs promptly.
*China Commerce Ministry, on US Commerce Department curbs on Huawei AI chips' global usage: Threatens stability of global semiconductor supply chain.
*China Commerce Ministry, on US Commerce Department curbs on Huawei AI chips' global usage: Urges US to correct its practices, will take steps to defend Chinese enterprises' legitimate rights and interests.
*China Commerce Ministry on US 232 tariffs: Typical act of unilateralism and protectionism. Urge US to lift Section 232 tariffs promptly.
🚨Fed's Powell: Officials agree strategic language around both shortfalls of employment and average inflation need to be reconsidered.
*Powel: Fed is undertaking a two-day review of revisions to its framework adopted in 2020.
*Powell: Framework needs to be robust to many circumstances, including a world where supply shocks may be more frequent and persistent.
*Powell: Idea of a moderate overshoot of inflation following weakness became irrelevant given the levels inflation reached.
*Powell: Revisions to Fed communications are also being considered.
*Powell: Certain aspects of the Fed's approach are permanent, such as the focus on inflation expectations.
*Powell: Zero-lower bound still a risk and should be addressed in the framework, though it is no longer a base case given current level of policy rates.
*Powel: Fed is undertaking a two-day review of revisions to its framework adopted in 2020.
*Powell: Framework needs to be robust to many circumstances, including a world where supply shocks may be more frequent and persistent.
*Powell: Idea of a moderate overshoot of inflation following weakness became irrelevant given the levels inflation reached.
*Powell: Revisions to Fed communications are also being considered.
*Powell: Certain aspects of the Fed's approach are permanent, such as the focus on inflation expectations.
*Powell: Zero-lower bound still a risk and should be addressed in the framework, though it is no longer a base case given current level of policy rates.
JP Morgan: Bitcoin has more upside than gold going into the second half of the year.