🚨Goldman Sachs cuts 12-month US recession probability to 35% from 45%. Expects US Fed to deliver one interest rate cut in 2025 vs prior forecast of three cuts.

NYC Mayor Eric Adams wants long-term value with crypto, not to chase 'memes'. Reaffirmed his ambition to establish the city as the global crypto capital -The Block

Trump has said twice to buy US stocks and both times the call came before significantly positive announcements. His next buy stocks call could trigger an algo buying frenzy

Tao Wang (UBS Investment Bank): de-escalation in US-China trade tensions may result in smaller shocks to China's exports and economic growth. Expects China's real GDP growth to increase by 3.7% to 4.0% this year. [analysts flipping macro bullish after the fake trade war FUD]

Metaplanet issues 15 million USD in 0% ordinary bonds to purchase additional bitcoin.

Morning Star analyst Kai Wang: The worst of the US-China trade war is over. A market recovery could come sooner than during the first trade war as a reprieve took only about a month after the initial US tariff announcement

Oxford Economics: The probability of a US recession occurring this year has fallen to 35% after the announcement of a temporary US trade deal

FT: Animoca Brands planning to go public in New York

Ken Cheung of Mizuho Securities Asia: yuan in a "better shape" following the breakthrough in US-China trade negotiations

Coinbase becomes the first crypto firm to join S&P500.

BofA Survey: Recession expectations have peaked

US CPI data drops today at 8:30 EST (in 7h). Truflation shows 1.64% while the Fed expects 2.4%. [lower CPI today = jet fuel]

China's foreign ministry, on U.S. fentanyl tariffs: China has repeatedly said fentanyl is a U.S. issue.
*China's foreign ministry, on U.S. fentanyl tariffs: US ignores China's good will.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent: President Trump wants to rebalance US economy, China needs to rebalance towards consumption economy.
*Bessent: We do not want a generalised decoupling between the two largest economies in the world.
*Bessent: Very productive discussions with Japan.
*Bessent: United States will bring medicine, semiconductor and other strategic industries home.
*Bessent: Have been focused on Asia trade deals.
*Bessent: I am optimistic on trade, we can see more frictionless trade.

🚨Yesterday (red arrow): biggest short squeeze since covid

JPM still cannot get enthusiastic about the trade war truce: The trade war shock is still material. Assuming 41% on China and 10% elsewhere (and with sector tariffs), we now estimate an effective ex-ante tariff rate of 14.4%. This is akin to a $475bn tax hike on US households and businesses, worth 1.6% of GDP, sitting close to the largest tax hike in the post WWII period. [ignore macro FUD, BTFD]

Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Larry Fink to attend lunch with Trump, MBS in Riyadh.

Barclays expects Fed rate cut in December vs July previously.
*Goldman Sachs expects US Fed to deliver one interest rate cut in 2025 vs prior forecast of three cuts.
*GS pushes the expected start of Federal Reserve rate cuts to December from July [and back to July if CPI surprises to the downside today]