Bull Case
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Content here is for informational purposes only, always DYOR before making decisions.
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US 10 year, 20, 30 year yields up [market has gone risk on]
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JP Morgan: US-China tariff cuts exceed expectations [and so will the pumps at US open]
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🚨CNBC Africa crypto show host Ran Neuner: Truth Social Memecoin launching in next 72 hours. Seems like similar gang to TRUMP coin team.
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NASDAQ up nearly 4%
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S&P up nearly 3%
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ING upgrades China GDP forecast to 4.7% for 2025 after US deal. [macro narrative flipping bullish]
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Wedbush analysts: The significant cuts to US-China reciprocal tariffs represent the best-case scenario.
*Supply-chain concerns will now be significantly reduced
*Potential for new highs for US stocks in 2025
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🚨Trump: Drug prices to be cut by 59%, plus gasoline, energy, groceries, and all other costs, down. [Powell has got no excuses to not cut rates after this. Jet fuel incoming]
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SPX has rebounded sharply but CTA (trend following funds) positioning is still negative. Trend followers are still not chasing the rally, leaving a lot of dry powder still sidelined. [the real pump starts when they start chasing]
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Rare earth export permits for US customers are expected to receive faster approval from Beijing following Monday's trade war truce. The Ministry of Commerce may expedite the permit process, which typically takes 45 days, and could soon begin granting licenses specifically for US buyers -sources
Quick recap before US opens
White House officials: Trump executive order will set clear targets for drug price reductions in all US markets.
*WH: USTR, Commerce Department to take action against unreasonable and discriminatory policies in foreign countries that suppress drug prices abroad.
The last time US tariffs on China were this high, the S&P 500 was ~200 points lower, 4 Fed rate cuts were expected in 2025, and Wall Street was calling for a recession. [always BTFD, ignore macro FUD]
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Trump: We achieved a total reset with China.
*Agreement doesn't cover tariffs on cars, steel, aluminum or pharmaceuticals
*Trump: Will speak to Xi at end of week, maybe.
*Trump: I spoke to Tim Cook this morning. He will build a lot in the US.
🚨Trump: Best part of deal is China agreeing to open up. [US indices surge higher]
*Trump: China to suspend non-monetary barriers.
Trump: EU is nastier than China.
*EU will have to pay more for healthcare.
*US will pay same as other countries for drugs.
Trump: Will add on to tariffs if countries don't abide by drug policy. [Boy who cried wolf. Ignore macro FUD, BTFD]
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Trump: China tariffs will go up without a deal. Tariffs won't go back up all the way to 145%. [Boy who cried wolf. Ignore this clown]
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S&P 500 closes 3.2% higher. Nasdaq climbs 4.3%, closes at the highest level since March
🚨Goldman Sachs cuts 12-month US recession probability to 35% from 45%. Expects US Fed to deliver one interest rate cut in 2025 vs prior forecast of three cuts.
NYC Mayor Eric Adams wants long-term value with crypto, not to chase 'memes'. Reaffirmed his ambition to establish the city as the global crypto capital -The Block