Bull Case
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Content here is for informational purposes only, always DYOR before making decisions.
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Pinpoint chief economist Zhiwei Zhang: China's timing of monetary stimulus is likely tied to developments in the foreign exchange market, the current USD/CNH level indicates there is no longer significant pressure for the yuan to depreciate against the dollar, especially after several Asian currencies have appreciated recently.
Deutsche: US companies are set to repurchase a record $500 billion of their own shares. Stronger-than-expected earnings have left companies flush with cash, while trade tensions and depressed stock prices have made buybacks an appealing option.
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ING: China's recent monetary stimulus package is likely timed to coincide with the upcoming US-China trade talks
Citi: Beijing's latest 10-measure stimulus package is a timely and strategic move that could provide leverage ahead of potential trade negotiations with the US
Capital Economics Zichun Huang: "Today’s easing measures are no substitute for an expansion in fiscal support, the economic impact of the announced policies is likely to be positive but modest."
ANZ Research: China's recent stimulus package indicates that the government is concerned about achieving its 5% economic growth target for the year
Maybank's Erica Tay: China's latest stimulus package is substantial and could strengthen Beijing's position in talks with the US. The pledge by China's securities regulator to stabilize the stock market through a stabilization fund represents a significant shift towards full-throttled support for Chinese equities. The message to stock investors is clear: the state has your back.
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Macro turning bullish fast: China-US trade talks resuming, PBOC easing, $560bn in US stock buybacks about to happen. Don't fomo into gold, buy crypto (we're still early).

@bullcase
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🚨China Foreign Ministry: US should stop threatening if it wants a deal.
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China adds to state gold reserves for sixth straight month. China gold reserves $243.59 billion at end-April vs $229.59 billion at end March -PBOC
The US dollar could face a $2.5 trillion sell-off as Asian exporters and investors unwind their dollar reserves -Stephen Jen of Eurizon SLJ Capital
🚨Stablecoin total market cap up 3% ($7bn) in the last month [direct measure of new cash entering crypto markets]
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The Indonesia Chief Economic Minister says there have been no discussions with the U.S. on the rupiah exchange rate as part of tariff negotiations.
🚨EU eyes tariffs on Boeing jets in retaliation plan
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Today: FOMC at 6PM UTC (in 7h), Powell at 6:30PM. With permanent job losers at cycle high, it will be more about unemployment and less about inflation. Powell is likely to be neutral to dovish. Bitcoin selling pressure on exchanges is at historic lows. Even a whiff of dovishness would send crypto flying.
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🚨Ethereum activates 'Pectra' upgrade, raising max stake to 2,048 ETH
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K33 analysts advocate for Hold in May and stay: Onwards, crypto is about to face multiple Trump-driven positive developments, whereas equities may face a tariff repeat, setting the stage for relative bitcoin strength in the months ahead. [they're not wrong]
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PBOC vows to maintain easing bias, fully utilize existing tools, and step up incremental policy measures.
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