Bull Case
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Content here is for informational purposes only, always DYOR before making decisions.
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Trump ends remarks with Carney [ignore macro FUD, BTFD]
Bull Case pinned Β«GDP=C+I+G+(Xβˆ’M), C is Consumption, I is Investment, G is Government Spending, X is Exports, and M is Imports, imports (M) are subtracted. High imports, lower nominal GDP, macro FUD. BTFD and ignore macro FUD. @bullcaseΒ»
UK & US close to trade deal with lower tariffs -FT
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🚨Vol Control, CTAs & Risk Parity flows at the bottom 4th percentile. -Nomura [BTFD now before their flows start coming back and macro turns bullish]
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Bull Case pinned a photo
🚨China's Vice Premier He Lifeng to meet with US's Bessent
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Spot gold down 1% on report Bessent to meet with China
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S&P 500 futures surge over +1% on report Bessent to meet with China
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🚨China’s Central Bank Unveils Major Monetary Policy Easing Measures
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Bloomberg's Eric Zhu: The People’s Bank of China is spearheading efforts to shield the economy from the trade-war shock with a rate cut and other monetary support. The move echoes a strategy used last September, when the PBOC took the lead in delivering stimulus and fiscal support followed
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PBOC: Starting from May 7, 2025, the relending rate will be reduced by 0.25 percentage points.
Pinpoint chief economist Zhiwei Zhang: China's timing of monetary stimulus is likely tied to developments in the foreign exchange market, the current USD/CNH level indicates there is no longer significant pressure for the yuan to depreciate against the dollar, especially after several Asian currencies have appreciated recently.
Deutsche: US companies are set to repurchase a record $500 billion of their own shares. Stronger-than-expected earnings have left companies flush with cash, while trade tensions and depressed stock prices have made buybacks an appealing option.
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ING: China's recent monetary stimulus package is likely timed to coincide with the upcoming US-China trade talks
Citi: Beijing's latest 10-measure stimulus package is a timely and strategic move that could provide leverage ahead of potential trade negotiations with the US
Capital Economics Zichun Huang: "Today’s easing measures are no substitute for an expansion in fiscal support, the economic impact of the announced policies is likely to be positive but modest."
ANZ Research: China's recent stimulus package indicates that the government is concerned about achieving its 5% economic growth target for the year
Maybank's Erica Tay: China's latest stimulus package is substantial and could strengthen Beijing's position in talks with the US. The pledge by China's securities regulator to stabilize the stock market through a stabilization fund represents a significant shift towards full-throttled support for Chinese equities. The message to stock investors is clear: the state has your back.
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Macro turning bullish fast: China-US trade talks resuming, PBOC easing, $560bn in US stock buybacks about to happen. Don't fomo into gold, buy crypto (we're still early).

@bullcase
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🚨China Foreign Ministry: US should stop threatening if it wants a deal.
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