Bull Case
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Content here is for informational purposes only, always DYOR before making decisions.
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German DAX index rises 1% intraday. [this is not bearish]
Goldman Sachs: Expects 3 rate cuts in 2025. One 25bp rate cut in July, one in September, and one October, citing recession risks from tariffs and trade uncertainty.
🚨Taiwan's dollar surged another 5% today on the narrative that exporters are rushing to convert their holdings of US dollars to the island's currency.
🚨A massive transfer of purchase power from the West into Asia is underway short term. What happens next? The trade war means they either boost domestic consumption to generate ROI at home as the US consumer is much harder to reach, or that money flows into gold, stablecoins and crypto. We're betting on the latter. BTFD, ignore macro FUD. @bullcase
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Bull Case pinned a photo
Dow drops 200 points, VIX jumps as stocks fall to start the week amid renewed tariff uncertainty [Asia sells, US buys. Expecting a green daily close. BTFD]
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🚨US April PMI Final at 50.8 vs estimate of 51.4. Trending lower close to the 50 mark, but still above it (above 50 is expansionary, under 50 contraction). China's Manufactuing PMI went down from 50.5 to 49 in April. US ISM Services PMI Prices Paid soars to 65.1, highest since 2023.
Just 9 days to move 10% down and then 10% up. Haven't seen that kind of price action often, and it always ended one way.

@bullcase
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India offers zero-for-zero tariffs on auto parts, steel, and pharmaceuticals up to a certain quantity of imports from US. -sources
🚨Ackman says next step on tariffs should be a 180-day pause [Bears are dead]

@bullcase
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🚨Bill Ackman CNBC interview: "The right thing to do, in my view, is we pause on China. Let’s give it a little more time. Maybe it's 180 days because we're going to be busy here"

@bullcase
Trump administration says it will pay immigrants in the United States illegally $1,000 to go home - AP
🚨US Treasury Sec Bessent: US will solidify position as home of global capital. US market are anti-fragile, over a long-term horizon it's never a bad time to invest in America.
Bessent: Trump's tariffs, tax cuts and deregulation agendas are interlocking parts to drive long-term investment to US economy
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Kyodo: US rejects Japan full exemption from 'reciprocal' tariffs
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Kyodo: US would consider lowering 14% Japan-specific tariff
Trump: Just had a good call with Turkey's Erdogan. Erdogan invited me to Turkey, he is coming to DC.
Citi CEO says clients are prepping for headwinds
Citi CEO: most companies are a bit in limbo land, there's a wait-and-see going on. Most can absorb 10% tariffs.
Bessent: 100% expensing for equipment, factories, along with tax certainty and lower energy costs, will accelerate U.S. economic growth