🚨ASEAN+3 agree to launch rapid financing tool under CMIM, funded in RMB and other freely usable currencies

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🚨ASEAN+3's CMIM unveils $240 billion USD financial safety net

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Goldman Sachs: 'We reiterate our structural bullish gold view with a base case of $3,700/toz by year-end and of $4,000 by mid-2026. In extreme tail scenarios where market focus on risks of Fed subordination or of changes in US reserve policy was to grow, estimate gold could plausibly trade near $4,500/toz by end-2025. [Thank you for confirming gold has topped, GS.]

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Spot gold up nearly 2% intraday to $3,300/oz for first time since Apr 30.

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Taiwan's president: Taiwan's trade surplus with the United States has nothing to do with the exchange rate.

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EU's von der Leyen announces new 500m euro package for 2025–2027 'to make Europe a magnet for researchers.' [Yes, bring them all to Europe to celebrate their birthdays with plastic glasses in the lab]

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Von der Leyen: We have to make it easier and more attractive to come to Europe for research. We want EU member states to reach the 3% GDP target for investment in research and development by 2030.

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🚨Chinese manufacturing PMI took a big leg down in April, dropping from to 49.0 from 50.5, with new export orders falling below 45 for the first time since 2022's lockdown chaos, about 1 standard deviation below the average level for both indicators.

Gavekal: The culprit behind the weak PMI is the imposition of massive new US tariffs on Chinese imports, which are starting to affect shipping volumes, whose decline was preceded by a material slowdown in new orders as customers started to hold off in the hope of a deal.

🚨US 30Y yields climbing towards 5% in pre-market [Trump cares about yields, and good news tends to drop when we get close to 5%, 4.90+. Buy the crypto dip. Sell gold.]

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Goldman Sachs' John Flood: The market got very excited by this 12 PM headline on Friday: BEIJING WEIGHS FENTANYL OFFER TO US TO START TRADE TALKS (WSJ). Records are meant to be broken, but I think the current winning streak will end soon. The S&P 500's 200 DMA of 5746 should act as a significant level of resistance. Watch for a move back down toward the 50 DMA (5582).

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Barron's: Where Did The Bulls Go? The percentage of bears in our latest Big Money poll is the largest in almost 30 years.

German DAX index rises 1% intraday. [this is not bearish]

Goldman Sachs: Expects 3 rate cuts in 2025. One 25bp rate cut in July, one in September, and one October, citing recession risks from tariffs and trade uncertainty.

🚨Taiwan's dollar surged another 5% today on the narrative that exporters are rushing to convert their holdings of US dollars to the island's currency.

🚨A massive transfer of purchase power from the West into Asia is underway short term. What happens next? The trade war means they either boost domestic consumption to generate ROI at home as the US consumer is much harder to reach, or that money flows into gold, stablecoins and crypto. We're betting on the latter. BTFD, ignore macro FUD. @bullcase

Dow drops 200 points, VIX jumps as stocks fall to start the week amid renewed tariff uncertainty [Asia sells, US buys. Expecting a green daily close. BTFD]

Just 9 days to move 10% down and then 10% up. Haven't seen that kind of price action often, and it always ended one way.

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