Today so far pre-bell:
📉S&P 500 & Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.7% after a 9-day rally streak.
💵USD weakens as Japan hints at using US Treasuries as leverage in trade talks.
🛢Oil plunges 5% to $55.81 on rising Middle East supply & demand fears.

@bullcase

Sentiment and positioning remain ultrabearish on the dollar.

@bullcase

Moody's Ratings: We assume flare-ups will occur periodically between India, Pakistan but they will not lead to an outright, broad-based military conflict.

@bullcase

Eurozone investor sentiment stabilizing following last month's shock over US tariff policy. Economic expectations are rebounding, with signs of recovery in both current conditions and outlook.

@bullcase

🚨PBOC's Pan: We call on regional countries together to deal with tariffs. Global economic uncertainties are rising.

@bullcase

Taiwan central bank: US did not ask Taiwan dollar to appreciate [Sure, sure.]

@bullcase

Spot gold up 1%

@bullcase

🚨PBOC Governor Pan chairs ASEAN+3 finance ministers and central bank governors' meeting. Pan urges regional unity against US tariff impact, outlines China’s macro policy response.

@bullcase

🚨ASEAN+3 agree to launch rapid financing tool under CMIM, funded in RMB and other freely usable currencies

@bullcase

🚨ASEAN+3's CMIM unveils $240 billion USD financial safety net

@bullcase

Goldman Sachs: 'We reiterate our structural bullish gold view with a base case of $3,700/toz by year-end and of $4,000 by mid-2026. In extreme tail scenarios where market focus on risks of Fed subordination or of changes in US reserve policy was to grow, estimate gold could plausibly trade near $4,500/toz by end-2025. [Thank you for confirming gold has topped, GS.]

@bullcase

Spot gold up nearly 2% intraday to $3,300/oz for first time since Apr 30.

@bullcase

Taiwan's president: Taiwan's trade surplus with the United States has nothing to do with the exchange rate.

@bullcase

EU's von der Leyen announces new 500m euro package for 2025–2027 'to make Europe a magnet for researchers.' [Yes, bring them all to Europe to celebrate their birthdays with plastic glasses in the lab]

@bullcase

Von der Leyen: We have to make it easier and more attractive to come to Europe for research. We want EU member states to reach the 3% GDP target for investment in research and development by 2030.

@bullcase

🚨Chinese manufacturing PMI took a big leg down in April, dropping from to 49.0 from 50.5, with new export orders falling below 45 for the first time since 2022's lockdown chaos, about 1 standard deviation below the average level for both indicators.

Gavekal: The culprit behind the weak PMI is the imposition of massive new US tariffs on Chinese imports, which are starting to affect shipping volumes, whose decline was preceded by a material slowdown in new orders as customers started to hold off in the hope of a deal.

🚨US 30Y yields climbing towards 5% in pre-market [Trump cares about yields, and good news tends to drop when we get close to 5%, 4.90+. Buy the crypto dip. Sell gold.]

@bullcase

Goldman Sachs' John Flood: The market got very excited by this 12 PM headline on Friday: BEIJING WEIGHS FENTANYL OFFER TO US TO START TRADE TALKS (WSJ). Records are meant to be broken, but I think the current winning streak will end soon. The S&P 500's 200 DMA of 5746 should act as a significant level of resistance. Watch for a move back down toward the 50 DMA (5582).

@bullcase

Barron's: Where Did The Bulls Go? The percentage of bears in our latest Big Money poll is the largest in almost 30 years.

German DAX index rises 1% intraday. [this is not bearish]