Bull Case
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Content here is for informational purposes only, always DYOR before making decisions.
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AAII bull-bear spread is still deep in negative territory [a lot have fallen for the macro FUD]
Retail traders net bought $40B in April setting new record for the largest monthly inflow. [the narrative of retail triggering short squeezes and liquidating hedge funds is about to make a comeback]
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Solid headlines on jobs data but the overall trajectory for US unemployment rate is up. Permanent job losers have moved up to a cycle high, initial jobless claims are also picking up.
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๐ŸšจTrump on economy: Fed should lower its rate [he's damn right]
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T1Alpha: Starting next week we should see 1-month realized volatility start to decline. We expect these massive buying flows to flood the market throughout next week. CTA and Vol Control funds both poised to add exposure over the next several weeks.
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SPX continues its sharp recovery but traders are still positioned short and complacent. A swing high would catch many off guard.
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๐ŸšจNYT: Beijing considers sending top security official to meet Trump team on fentanyl precursors. Wang Xiaohong has been inquiring what it would take to ease Trumpโ€™s grievances, possibly paving way for resumed negotiations.
๐ŸšจTaiwanese Dollar surges 4% to 5% against the USD in largest daily gain since 1988, biggest move in 40 years [looks like Taiwan made a deal]
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The EU has officially passed the Anti-Money Laundering Regulation (AMLR) banning all financial institutions and crypto service providers from offering anonymous crypto accounts or wallets starting July 1, 2027 -EUCI
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BoA: Crypto $2.3bn inflow, past 2 weeks biggest inflow of '25 ($4.8bn)
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The US dollar has seen so far its worst run of any of the last 7 presidents
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๐ŸšจNew Coinbase Bitcoin ad [this is not bearish]
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Bessent WSJ Editorial: The American people should expect to hear the engine humming during the second half of 2025. We'll see less national debt and less dependence on Chinaโ€”all while maintaining a strong dollar.
๐ŸšจUS Bitcoin ETFs bought 18,644 BTC last week, nearly 6x more than 3,150 BTC produced by miners in the same week.

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Trump: I'm a big fan of crypto because I want to keep it away from China

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PumpFun surpasses Ethereum capturing $294 million in fees so far this year. In addition, PumpFun's weekly fee capture level has also surpassed Ethereum for the 9th consecutive week -source

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Trump orders 100% tariff on Bollywood and other foreign films, calls them security threat.

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BTC.D has reached major resistance, while ETHBTC is at key support. Your conviction is about to be rewarded.

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๐ŸšจBloomberg's James Seyffart: Canary Fund Litecoin ETF filing is due for a decision (possibly a delay) by Monday 5/5. SEC went early & delayed a bunch of filings but not this. If any asset has a chance of early approval it's Litecoin.

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Corporations have fallen for the macro FUD and aren't investing at the moment. As soon as tariff uncertainties are resolved, there will be a massive catch-up effect.

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Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has announced Tether AI, a fully open-source AI runtime designed to run on any hardware or device, requiring no API keys and having no central point of failure. It is fully modular and composable. Notably, the AI runtime will integrate WDK (presumably Tetherโ€™s developer kit) to support payments using USDT and Bitcoin. -announcement

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