US Bitcoin spot ETF experienced a net inflow of $172.78 million on 29 Apr 2025

The Fed Speak Index (white line) is increasingly softer in tone. Federal reserve officials are talking more about recession & unemployment than about high inflation.

🚨China has created a secret list of US-made products exempt from its 125% tariffs and is discreetly informing companies -sources

Europe's second-largest digital bank Bunq announces partnership with Kraken to launch cryptocurrency services -source

World Gold Council: Total Q1 gold demand (inclusive of OTC investment) was 1% higher y/y at 1,206t, the highest for a first quarter since 2016. Surging ETF inflows were pivotal to gold's price rise

🚨Hedge funds loading up on shorts [remember Melvin Capital and all the hedge funds that were short in January 2021?]

🚨Morgan Stanley: China economic growth could drop below 4.5% in the second quarter because of tariffs, marking a decline of a full percentage point. Impact of tariffs will be most severe in the current quarter, as many exporters have suspended production and shipments to the US. Factories are quickly losing orders.

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) Research analysts have revised down their 2025 GDP growth forecast for China to 4.2% from 4.8%, citing increased headwinds from a faster decline in exports.

Spot gold -1% intraday [gold has topped, rotation into crypto has started]

🚨Barclays: China's manufacturing sector is beginning to show significant signs of distress due to the prohibitive tariff war.

PBOC: Conducted 1.2 trillion yuan ($164.4bn) outright reverse repo operations in April

UOB economist Ho Woei Chen: China's economy is likely to experience a significant slowdown as trade tensions persist.

🚨Hearing rumors about a US-China trade deal -sources

Shein considering restructuring its US operations in response to potential continued tariffs under the Trump administration -sources

US Treasury to sell $58 billion 3-year notes, $42 billion 10-year notes, $25 billion 30-year bonds next week.

Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee presentation shows the debt limit has not successfully promoted fiscal responsibility but has hurt the US credit rating and could affect reserve asset status –TBAC minutes

🚨US Q1 REAL GDP CONTRACTED AT AN ANNUALIZED RATE OF -0.3%, MARKING THE LOWEST READING SINCE Q2 2022 [BTFD]

The US economy contracted in the first quarter for the first time since 2022, reflecting the early impact of President Donald Trump’s trade policies. A sharp increase in imports ahead of anticipated tariffs and weakening consumer demand contributed to the downturn.

🚨KALSHI NOW SHOWS A 74% CHANCE OF A U.S. RECESSION THIS YEAR, SPIKING AFTER THIS MORNING’S SURPRISE GDP PRINT