Rick Rieder from BlackRock says US stock market 5–10% overvalued based on earnings and economy

USTR Jamieson Greer told Senate Republicans today the administration will be announcing trade deals over the next few weeks that could settle down Trump’s trade war, per attendee -Semafor

🚨Trump has said he would veto the bipartisan Senate resolution that would end the April 2nd Trump tariffs measure if it passes Congress.

*Trump: China and the EU ripped the US off
*Trump: China will probably eat those tariffs
*U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent: No trade deal is done until Trump announces it.
*Bessent: Trump needs to sign off on 18 key trade deals, he is involved in talks.
*Bessent: Factories in China are having to shut down, have seen substantial estimates of layoffs in China

WH Economic Adviser Miran: We don't see higher consumer prices over extended time.

At least one big option trader has dialed up an $18 million bet that the Federal Reserve will avoid cutting interest rates any time this year. -sources

Chinese sovereign fund CIC to sell US private equity investment portfolio worth $1 billion in secondary market. -sources

The SEC has concluded its investigation into PayPal's dollar-backed stablecoin, PYUSD, without taking enforcement action. The SEC issued a subpoena in November 2023, but informed PayPal in February 2025 that the inquiry was closed. -source

US Ethereum spot ETF experienced a net inflow of $18.40 million on 29 Apr 2025

US Bitcoin spot ETF experienced a net inflow of $172.78 million on 29 Apr 2025

The Fed Speak Index (white line) is increasingly softer in tone. Federal reserve officials are talking more about recession & unemployment than about high inflation.

🚨China has created a secret list of US-made products exempt from its 125% tariffs and is discreetly informing companies -sources

Europe's second-largest digital bank Bunq announces partnership with Kraken to launch cryptocurrency services -source

World Gold Council: Total Q1 gold demand (inclusive of OTC investment) was 1% higher y/y at 1,206t, the highest for a first quarter since 2016. Surging ETF inflows were pivotal to gold's price rise

🚨Hedge funds loading up on shorts [remember Melvin Capital and all the hedge funds that were short in January 2021?]

🚨Morgan Stanley: China economic growth could drop below 4.5% in the second quarter because of tariffs, marking a decline of a full percentage point. Impact of tariffs will be most severe in the current quarter, as many exporters have suspended production and shipments to the US. Factories are quickly losing orders.

Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) Research analysts have revised down their 2025 GDP growth forecast for China to 4.2% from 4.8%, citing increased headwinds from a faster decline in exports.

Spot gold -1% intraday [gold has topped, rotation into crypto has started]

🚨Barclays: China's manufacturing sector is beginning to show significant signs of distress due to the prohibitive tariff war.

PBOC: Conducted 1.2 trillion yuan ($164.4bn) outright reverse repo operations in April