Apollo: April 2025 tariffs on China triggered a cascading slowdown in shipping, trucking, retail, and ultimately lead to a US recession by summer. [There will be a lot of macro FUD as we pump higher the next 6 months. BTFD!]

Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 61 (Greed)

Bitcoin up over 20% from the lows, funding rates still very negative.

🚨Binance Bitcoin/Stablecoin Reserve Ratio triggered a buy signal around $77k. Historically, every time we saw this ratio at these levels (covid crash, late 2022) it was followed by a massive Bitcoin rally.

Stablecoin yields hovering around 30-day averages (source) = capital still mostly sidelined. Watching for a sentiment flip when APYs start climbing above trend, that’s when risk appetite has officially returned. [Until then we're in pre-alt season = great time to buy]

Bessent: Anything happening over a 1 month period can be statistical noise. We are setting the fundamentals for a strong dollar, a strong economy, strong stock market. The US government bond market is the safest and soundest in the world.

UST backed stablecoins are this administration's wildcard to both refinance the US gov debt and maintain USD's role as global reserve currency. Bonds will stay bid, stablecoin market cap will keep making new ATHs, crypto will moon. -Bull Case Insider

🚨Currently, the Reversal Risk percentile is at its lowest since 2016, signaling extremely high USD bearish premiums, while volatility sits near the 80th percentile. This extreme positioning reflects pure panic, and when markets are this one-sided, they often snap back violently.

Treasuries funds flow -BofA [impressive despite the bearish MSM narrative]

Monero, the largest privacy coin by market cap, surges 50%

🚨China Foreign Ministry: Presidents Xi, Trump did not have call recently

🚨China's Foreign Ministry: US, China have not conducted negotiations, consultations on tariffs

🚨🚨Piper Sandler: Correlations among US stocks, bonds, and the dollar are at the highest level since at least 2019 [even higher than Q1 2021, right before the last big bull]

Goldman Sachs: Approximately 16 million jobs in China are at risk due to US tariffs.

Goldman Sachs: In response to the potential economic impact of US tariffs, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) may intensify its monetary policy measures in the coming months, once the effects of the tariffs become clearer.

Goldman Sachs: expects "dual cut" in both the second and third quarters, referring to reductions in both the reserve requirement ratio and the policy rate, followed by another policy rate cut in the fourth quarter.

1 billion USDT minted at Tether Treasury on Tron [the most used USDT network by Asia]

US Ethereum spot ETF experienced a net inflow of $104.16 million on 25 Apr 2025

Crypto lender Nexo returns to US two years after $45m settlement with SEC -announcement

🚨Jefferies: China may not rush to negotiate with US. Due to strong domestic support in China for firm countermeasures, Beijing is unlikely to feel pressured to negotiate hastily. [please take your time]

Jefferies: The impact of the trade war on China's exports began in April and may start to affect domestic demand in May. If signs of an economic slowdown intensify in May, Beijing could provide fiscal support across multiple areas to boost domestic demand. [sending total stablecoin market cap above $1tn]