Bitcoin briefly slipped below $64K after failing to hold recent highs, with spot BTC ETFs seeing around $145M in outflows yesterday and ending a seven-day inflow streak. That doesn't necessarily change the bigger picture, but it does show buyers aren't defending every dip. Tomorrow's CPI could provide the next major catalyst for BTC and the wider crypto market.
β Tomorrow's U.S. CPI and the reaction across risk assetsβ Whether oil continues pushing inflation expectations higherβ BTC's ability to hold around the $63Kβ$64K areaβ Whether ETF flows return to positive after yesterday's outflows
π Tomorrow's CPI could decide whether this is just a pullback or the start of something bigger.
Watch where the money flows, not just the price.
If BTC holds its range despite a hot print, that would show real underlying strength. If softer inflation brings buyers straight back in, it could signal the recent weakness was simply positioning ahead of the data.π
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Bitcoin has remained around the $64K area despite the softer market reaction to CPI. That's worth watching. Equities have responded positively, but BTC hasn't yet produced the stronger move many traders would expect from easing inflation pressure.
β Whether equities can extend the post-CPI moveβ BTC's reaction if the dollar and yields continue fallingβ Whether crypto starts catching up with the broader risk-on move
CPI gave risk assets some room β but price still needs to confirm it!
If BTC and equities keep pushing higher after the initial move, that's a stronger signal than the initial CPI reaction alone.π
If it doesn't, the market may be telling us that something else is holding crypto back.
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π¨π³ Industrial Production YoY β JUL
π Weaker than expected = weaker growth outlook β possible pressure on Chinese stocksπ Stronger than expected = stronger growth outlook β possible support for Chinese stocks
π¨π³ Retail Sales YoY β JUL
π Weaker than expected = weaker consumer demand β possible pressure on Chinese stocks & risk assetsπ Stronger than expected = stronger consumer demand β possible support for Chinese stocks & risk assets
π¬π§ Inflation Rate YoY β JUL π₯
π Hotter than expected = higher BoE rate expectations β higher yields β possible pressure on stocks, crypto & metalsπ Cooler than expected = lower BoE rate expectations β lower yields β possible support for stocks, crypto & metals
πΊπΈ FOMC Minutes π₯
π More hawkish than expected = fewer rate-cut hopes β possible pressure on stocks, crypto & goldπ More dovish than expected = more rate-cut hopes β possible support for stocks, crypto & gold
π―π΅ Inflation Rate YoY β JUL
π Hotter than expected = higher BoJ rate expectations β stronger yen β possible pressure on global risk assetsπ Cooler than expected = lower BoJ rate expectations β weaker yen β possible support for global risk assets
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Bitcoin is trading around $63Kβ$64K, with the market still looking for a catalyst to break the current range. With the dollar weakening and risk assets holding up, BTC's ability to attract buyers here is worth watching. A sustained move above the recent range would show buyers are gaining conviction; continued rejection would suggest the market still needs a stronger catalyst.
β BTC around $63K β whether buyers continue defending the current rangeβ U.S. dollar weakness β whether it continues supporting risk assetsβ Gold and oil β both moving higher as geopolitical risk remains elevatedβ Walmart & Home Depot earnings β fresh clues on the strength of the U.S. consumer
Watch how markets react to bad news.
If weaker growth data keeps getting absorbed without major selling, buyers are showing they're still comfortable taking risk.
But if today's strength starts fading despite the softer rate outlook, that tells us the market may be running out of reasons to push higher.
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