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📊 An analysis found that Kalshi’s implied forecasts for the federal funds target rate had an average absolute error over a 150-day horizon comparable to that of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s professional forecasters. The author argued that macro expectation data from markets like Kalshi, which is backed by real capital and continuously updated, could provide researchers and policymakers with a new real-time benchmark for expectations. #macro link
🐳 Three days ago, a whale deposited $8.58M $USDC into Lighter_xyz and yesterday opened a $BTC long position with 20x leverage.

Stats:

- Amount: 1,000 $BTC
- Value: $67.12M
- Entry price: $67,096
- Liquidation price: $58,409.82 link
🇺🇸🏆 On Feb. 18 (ET), U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net outflows of $133 million. The BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT saw the largest single-day net outflow at $84.19 million.

Spot Ethereum ETFs posted total net outflows of $41.83 million, with the BlackRock spot Ethereum ETF ETHA logging the largest single-day net outflow at $29.93 million. #etf link
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📊 Are Bitcoin's Long-Term Investors Buying Again?

“When the price dropped to the 62-68K range, LTHs stopped selling and started accumulating. The YTD data makes this very clear. Daily average accumulation climbed to 115 $BTC, while selling pressure nearly vanished.” link link
📊 #BTC Bitcoin’s short-term Sharpe ratio has reached a level typically associated with generational buying opportunities. The chart indicates that each previous extreme negative reading was followed by significant recoveries to new highs. link link
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🙅 $J, $WEN, $PERP delisted from Bybit spot link
🇰🇷🕵️ #RWA Kresus has raised approximately $13 million from Hanwha Investment & Securities. The funding will be used to support the infrastructure of corporate wallets and real-world asset (RWA) tokenization platforms. link
⛏️ The UAE has mined $453.6M worth of Bitcoin via Citadel. Most of the $BTC is still being held, per Arkham.
🔝 Top five #DeFi projects for staking to earn yields (up to 25% APY) and qualify for potential airdrops. cryptorank
📝👀 #APT Aptos Foundation has released a tokenomics update with several key proposals. These include reducing the staking reward APR from 5.19% to 2.6% via governance, initially increasing gas fees by 10x (with gas paid in APT and fully burned), establishing a protocol-level hard cap of 2.1 billion APT, and permanently locking and continuously staking 210 million APT held by the Foundation.

Additionally, future grants will transition to KPI-linked "performance-triggered" distributions, and a programmatic buyback mechanism will be explored. link
🇺🇸🇮🇷 The US has reportedly moved over 120 combat aircraft and two carrier strike groups toward the Middle East amid escalating tensions with Iran. This is the largest deployment since mid‑2025.

Such military buildups often increase global uncertainty and can weigh on risk assets — including equities, emerging markets, and crypto. Traders should watch for heightened volatility as geopolitical headlines intensify. cnn.com #macro #tradewars
📊 Bybit CEO Ben Year-End Keynote: 1010 Review and 2026 Roadmap

In this keynote address, Bybit CEO Ben reviews the rapid development of the global crypto industry in 2025 and outlines Bybit’s strategic transition from a “crypto exchange” to a “comprehensive financial platform.” He also reflects on the market turmoil of October 10 (10.10), analyzing its impact on market liquidity and trading infrastructure. link
😱 SEC Chair Paul Atkins states that regulators should not panic over declining crypto prices. He emphasizes that it is not the regulator's responsibility to be concerned about daily market fluctuations, and the focus should instead be on disclosures and long-term regulatory clarity. #regulation