🇺🇸👀 #macro Traders now see the Fed Funds rate at 3.1% at the end of 2026 and estimate the probability of a pause at the January meeting at 78%.
🇺🇸👀 #macro #FOMC Powell:
- Inflation remains somewhat elevated; goods inflation accelerated due to tariffs.
- Long-term inflation expectations stay near 2%.
- Labor market is softer; job growth likely overstated by ~60k in recent months.
- Economy is not overheated.
- Fed will make decisions meeting-by-meeting; policy is not on a preset course.
- Rates are within a plausible neutral range.
- Fed is buying short-term Treasuries to support money-market stability.
- Repo operations remain important; reserve levels are sufficient.
- #AI-related data-center spending supports investment.
- Inflation on goods expected to peak in Q1 if no new tariffs.
- Tariffs are the main driver of higher goods inflation.
- Inflation remains somewhat elevated; goods inflation accelerated due to tariffs.
- Long-term inflation expectations stay near 2%.
- Labor market is softer; job growth likely overstated by ~60k in recent months.
- Economy is not overheated.
- Fed will make decisions meeting-by-meeting; policy is not on a preset course.
- Rates are within a plausible neutral range.
- Fed is buying short-term Treasuries to support money-market stability.
- Repo operations remain important; reserve levels are sufficient.
- #AI-related data-center spending supports investment.
- Inflation on goods expected to peak in Q1 if no new tariffs.
- Tariffs are the main driver of higher goods inflation.
🐳 #BTC Whales continue to add BTC while retail buying pressure is at yearly lows.
🇺🇸👀 #macro James Lavish says the US Treasury is pushing for rate cuts because with so much government debt in short-term T-bills, every 25bp cut reduces annual interest costs by about $25 billion.
📊📉 Glassnode: Few new entrants to the crypto ecosystem. We’re currently in a period of sustained disinterest, especially in altcoins. During the recent sell-off, #BTC saw a surge in new activity as buyers stepped in, while altcoins drew far less attention from new investors.
On an absolute level, even though altcoin interest is slowly climbing over multiple years, we are not currently in a high-interest environment like that seen in late 2023/early 2024 or late 2024/early 2025. This is what is needed to trigger any semblance of an alt season.
On an absolute level, even though altcoin interest is slowly climbing over multiple years, we are not currently in a high-interest environment like that seen in late 2023/early 2024 or late 2024/early 2025. This is what is needed to trigger any semblance of an alt season.
📊 #XRP Glassnode: since the beginning of February, the total fees paid daily for XRP transactions has decreased from 5.9k XRP per day to 650 XRP per day. This is a decrease of approximately 89%. This is the lowest level since December 2020.
🎉 #BTC Twenty One Capital has installed a statue of Satoshi Nakamoto on the NYSE floor.
💸 #BTC Over the last 24 hours, ~$514 million worth of contracts have been liquidated, of which longs have liquidated ~$375 million and shorts ~$138 million.
👍 #SOL Coinbase will allow users to trade all Solana tokens via DEX without an official listing.
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📊 #BTC CQ: 117 new companies added BTC to their treasuries in 2025:
- 147 hold less than 500 BTC;
- 15 hold 500-999 BTC;
- 14 hold 1000-1499 BTC;
- 4 hold 1500-2000 BTC;
- and one clear exception: MSTR with 660,624 BTC.
While companies like Strategy and Bitmine continue to buy up assets, others have gone quiet:
- Metaplanet hasn't added BTC in >2 months:
- Evernorth made a $950M purchase but has been inactive for the past 1.5 months.
- 147 hold less than 500 BTC;
- 15 hold 500-999 BTC;
- 14 hold 1000-1499 BTC;
- 4 hold 1500-2000 BTC;
- and one clear exception: MSTR with 660,624 BTC.
While companies like Strategy and Bitmine continue to buy up assets, others have gone quiet:
- Metaplanet hasn't added BTC in >2 months:
- Evernorth made a $950M purchase but has been inactive for the past 1.5 months.
🙋♂👀 #RSR Reserve Rights published a token structure reform proposal (RFC-1269) that includes burning ~30 billion RSR tokens to reduce overall supply, and implementing a governance-based veRSR issuance mechanism to increase token holder participation and governance influence.