From our contributor Alcibiades,

Big Rock Candy Ammunition Depot.

In light of some recent leaks that the Ukrainians have, once again, backed off attacking Transnistria (because it is and always has been a genuinely terrible idea and they don't have the troops for it) , I think it's worth taking a look at the fabled Cobasna Ammunition Depot. According to the usual story pushed by Western pseudo-analysts who went into journalism because they can't do math, it has enough ammunition to last for years of combat. But does it really?

Cobasna is generally said to contain something like 20,000 tons of ammunition. Which sounds like a lot and is a lot. However, 152mm artillery shells weigh a hundred pounds each. Which is also a lot. There's only 20 152mm shells per ton. As such, assuming that Cobasna is packed with nothing but 152mm artillery shells, Ukraine would be looking at a total haul of something like 400,000 shells should they capture the depot completely intact and the ammunition within is all usable and not rusted to oblivion and/or sabotaged.

Ukraine is generally said to fire something like 6,000 artillery shells per day, which works out to 180,000 rounds per month. Zelensky recently demanded a continual supply of 250,000 rounds per month out of NATO. As such even a completely successful operation to seize and empty the Cobasna depot in Transnistria - an operation absolutely fraught with enormous risks - would only be expected to feed the VSU's cannons for about two months.

People should stop acting like this is a realistic plan to solve the VSU's problems.