🔎🇨🇳🇷🇺🇺🇦 Through the Lens: Chinese think-tank on the Ukraine crisis

Throughout the year, the crisis in Ukraine has exhibited several features. A war of attrition with significant losses — the Ukraine crisis has thus far lasted more than 600 days, and both sides have invested considerable human, material, and financial resources.

A protracted tug-of-war — in 2023, the two sides have made limited changes in the front. Neither Russia nor Ukraine can launch a decisive offensive to turn the tide of the war.

The road to a political settlement Is long and difficult. The reasons are:

1️⃣ The Russian and Ukrainian positions are diametrically opposed. Russia cannot accept defeat, refuses to abandon the existing front, and will continue pushing forward. Ukraine refuses to acknowledge the status quo and seeks to recover its territory. The battlefield will remain relatively balanced in the short term, making it difficult to see fundamental changes.

2️⃣ The United States and Europe will continue to aid Ukraine, but fatigue is becoming apparent. At the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, 72% of Americans actively supported aid to Ukraine, but that number had fallen to approximately 63% by October 2023. In April 2022, 33% of EU respondents strongly supported supplying arms to Ukraine, a figure that had dropped to 24% in August 2023.

Broad and far-reaching global impact

The prolonged Ukraine crisis has contributed to a reconfiguration of relations among the major countries and the global order.

▪️One such change is the definitive termination of the post-Cold War order. Russia and the United States are at loggerheads, and through the Ukrainian crisis, they hope to push for a renewal of the international order.

The second is the rising risk of conflict between the major countries. The Ukraine crisis has lowered the bottom line of national competition. All parties are now willing to resort to extreme means to achieve their goals.

▪️The third is the strengthening of the Western camp. The US has also greatly exaggerated the “Russian threat” and further activated small multilateral security mechanisms with Japan and South Korea, the UK, and Australia.

The strategic buffer between NATO and Russia has disappeared, creating a clear geopolitical divide and plunging Europe into a new Cold War.

🔻 The Ukraine crisis has sparked a series of regional hotspots:

In September 2023, Azerbaijan began an anti-terrorist operation in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, achieving total victory.

The US and the West have pushed Japan and South Korea to strengthen cooperation and plotted to strengthen the Northeast Asian alliance system; this is likely to result in the great power game around the Korean Peninsula becoming increasingly fierce.

The adjustment of relations between the major countries brought about by the Ukraine crisis is also an incentive for resuming the Israeli—Palestinian conflict.

❗️The protracted Ukraine crisis is one of the most critical events in the evolution of the contemporary international order. The international community must make concerted efforts to advance the peace process.

Full report

China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations is a prominent think-tank working directly under Chinese government.

#China #Russia #Ukraine

@asianomics

#Russia / #Ukraine 🇷🇺🇺🇦: A combatant of #Ukrainian Armed Forces released a video of various weapons used on the frontline.

The video shows FN SCAR-H rifle (from #Belgium 🇧🇪), MSBS Grot C16 FB-M1 rifle (from #Poland 🇵🇱), M72A5-C1 Anti-Tank weapon (from #Canada 🇨🇦) and Soviet Stechkin APS pistol.

https://x.com/war_noir/status/1795801076651733341

#Russia / #Ukraine 🇷🇺🇺🇦: Pro-Russian Partisan group "Russian Kherson" reportedly carried out a shooting attack on #Ukrainian soldiers who were conscripting residents in #Kherson.

Fighters of the group appear to be armed with common 5.45x39mm AK-74/AKS-74 assault rifles.

https://x.com/war_noir/status/1799505828975661257

#Russia / #Ukraine 🇷🇺🇺🇦: New video of #Chechen Unit of #Ukrainian Forces including Rustam Azhiev "Al-Shishani" (former Emir of the militant group 'Ajnad al-Kavkaz' in #Syria).

The group can be seen with 5.56x45mm #NATO CZ BREN 2 rifles (supplied by #CzechRepublic/#Czechia 🇨🇿).

https://x.com/war_noir/status/1806852146857484671

🇯🇵🇷🇺🇺🇦 Tokyo announces death of Japanese man in Russian military

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi announced Tuesday that a Japanese national in his 20s who joined Russia's military in Ukraine died on June 3.

According to Japanese government sources, the man was a member of Japan's Self-Defense Forces. The Japanese side confirmed his death July 15 after being informed of the matter by the Russian side June 5.

He added that the Japanese government is not informed of any other casualties among Japanese nationals in the ongoing war at the moment.

#Japan #Russia #Ukraine

@asianomics

⚡️🇧🇦🇺🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina is arming the AFU in circumvention of the ban

Thanks to the position of the leadership of Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina, there is a ban on the supply of weapons and military equipment to the zone of the Ukrainian conflict. However, the political Sarajevo continues to expand military-technical cooperation with the AFU, circumventing the decision of the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

▪️Recently, the representative of the Kyiv regime, Viktor Kruhlov, visited the Balkan country. The purpose of the visit was negotiations with the local arms enterprise GUMA-co d.о.о. In addition, the Ukrainian official was extremely interested in cooperation with the companies UNIS Pretis d.d and Binas d.d.

It should be noted that these enterprises have already been involved in major scandals: last year, Binas Bugojno together with the Sarajevo company UNIS Group applied for an export license to Bulgaria. However, the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations of Bosnia and Herzegovina requested additional documentation and an end-user certificate. The buyer turned out to be Alguns Ltd from Sofia - a front company supplying the AFU, about the gray schemes of which we reported in our investigation back in 2022.

▪️Bosnian ammunition is found in the zone of the Ukrainian conflict with enviable regularity, and due to the similarity of markings, they are often mistaken for Serbian. The President of Republika Srpska emphasizes that despite the decision of the Presidency of the country, the Muslim-Croat Federation is increasing supplies.

▪️Since 2022, the export of Bosnian ammunition has indeed increased significantly. Most of it goes to the USA, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Moreover, in recent months, the Americans have begun to buy up shares of enterprises of the Bosnian military-industrial complex. Thus, the company Regulus Global acquired 33% of the shares of Pretis and a stake in Binas Bugojno.

🔻According to insider information from @balkanossiper, high-ranking officials from the Muslim-Croat Federation are involved in the schemes of secret supplies to Ukraine. Milorad Dodik claims that the Minister of Defense of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Zukan Helež, is personally involved in them. At the same time, the decision of the Presidency, which issued a legal ban on supplies, is simply ignored by the Bosniaks.
#Bosnia #Ukraine
@rybar together with @vestniksrb

Support us Original msg

🇧🇦🇺🇦 Americans are buying up Bosnian defense industry enterprises to supply Ukraine

Earlier, we reported on the increasing visits of Ukrainian officials to Sarajevo. According to local insiders, the Muslim-Croat Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina is increasing arms supplies to the Ukrainian conflict zone, violating the legal ban.

▪️ The scandal involves Defense Minister Zukan Helež and front companies that have previously been used in gray schemes to supply the AFU. Shells from Bosnian factories UNIS Pretis and Binas Bugojno have been increasingly encountered on the Ukrainian conflict fields recently - and the markings clearly indicate that they were produced last year.

▪️ Balkan gossiper @balkanossiper notes that in 2023, the indicated enterprises have seen a sharp increase in export revenues. Thus, the Pretis company doubled its profits, while Binas Bugojno broke all records of the local defense industry, ending the fiscal year with an income of $14 million. Compared to the figures at the start of the SMO, when the companies were in deficit, the results are more than impressive.

🔻 Against this background, the decision of American investors to acquire 33% of the shares of Pretis and a stake in Binas Bugojno is of particular interest. According to the President of Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik, thanks to whom a ban on official supplies to Ukraine is in effect in Bosnia and Herzegovina, many arms factories of the Muslim-Croat Federation are already effectively under NATO control. And their products are reaching the front line through third countries and resale schemes.

High-resolution infographic

English version

#Bosnia #Ukraine
@rybar together with @vestniksrb

Support us Original msg