ARGENTINA POST ELECTIONS ANALYSIS, ONE WEEK IN.
- Part 1/2 -

Dear reader, in light of the shocking electoral result which took place last week (especially as admin saw them unfold live in the Milei bunker in Córdoba) I decided to postpone the post elections analysis one week to see how this critical week would develop, now that the dust has somewhat settled (and Admin attended three in person party meetings) and a solid strategy has formed for the next 20 days until the elections I feel comfortable talking about the results and the path forwards.

We'll start by looking at the official results:

Voter turnout - 77,65%
Booths installed: 104,520
Booths processed: - 102,976 - 98,51%

Union por la Patria: - 36,68%
La Libertad Avanza: - 29,98%
Juntos por el Cambio: - 23,83%
Hacemos: - 6,78%
Frente de Izquierda: - 2,70%
Empty Ballots: - 2,04%

Let's compare the General Elections results with the Primaries:

LLA 7.116.352 PASO -  7.844.336 GE + ⬆️ 727.984
JxC 6.698.029 PASO - 6.267.152 GE - ⬇️ 430.877
UxP 6.460.689  - 9.645.983 GE + ⬆️ 3.185.294

Needless to say, Massa has had a shockingly good result for him considering he's been the economic "superminister" in an Argentine disastrous economic situation with a triple digit inflation, almost half the population under the poverty line, where half of all children don't have as much food as they should for healthy growth, the reason why Massa performed so well is mainly because of three things:

- Spending over 2-3% of the GDP in extraordinary welfare
- A strong fear campaign spreading fake news about the coalition (Which was coached by the Lula campaign)
- Instances of fraud which are estimated of 2-3%

ARGENTINA POST ELECTIONS ANALYSIS, ONE WEEK IN.
- PART 2 -

However I want to make it clear that the election is far from over, for starter the difference between Milei and Massa is 6.7% while in the 2015 PASO elections it was 8.55% in favor of socialist Scioli, then 2.93% in favor of the Scioli during the General Elections, only for Macri to win in the ballotage by obtaining 51.34%.

A victory is certainly possible, especially with some of the events which have transpired over the past week:

- Former president Macri, Presidential candidate Bullrich met with candidate Milei to establish a Tabula rasa and work together to achieve a victory against the leftwing socialists, afterwards Macri, Bullrich and the vicepresident candidate Luis Petri did a press conference in which they called for voting Milei in the face of another 4 years of socialism.

- There have also been heavy fuel shortages caused by two government decisions, the first to lock fuel prices under inflation thus lowering production and also to not allow USD transfers in order to import fuel.
As such the fuel shortages have impacted throughout the entire territory, Massa refered to the shortages as being caused by "people vacationing far more than last year", a speech which is near identical to Maduro's answer to food shortages in Venezuela.

- Governor for Córdoba Schiaretti has publically denounced Massa and has made his affinity to the liberal cause known, Córdoba is the furthest rightwing province having voted more than 80% for either Milei, Bullrich or Schiaretti, which is a crucial vote as that % difference were the votes which allowed Macri to defeat Scioli in the 2015 election, the hatred for socialism in the province is second to none.

The elections aren't decided yet, and just about all the polls are showing a near perfect 50/50 in which the error margin will be the deciding factor, all that remains now is seeing how the economy continues to develop as it continues to crumble and perhaps most importanty the upcoming presidential debates where the future of the country might be decided.

I apologize for the lack of updates throughout the week, I wanted to see how things were developing as well as my own involvement within, I've seen a few takes on Argentina throughout the week which were downright retarded so I hope my dearest reader that you appreciate a proper comprehensive read on the situation, it's context and the path forwards, God bless.

@southerncrossintel

🚢 🇺🇸 🌍 Updated Map of US Navy and Allies in the Mediterranean and Red Sea.

Corrections:
Added specific location of USS Mesa Verde as it is doing disaggregated ops in Eastern Mediterranean.
USS Laboon did not cross the straight of Gibraltar yesterday tracker code was for USS Philippine Sea.
Corrected minor typos

Updated all sources used

Changes since yesterday

ITS Paolo Thaon di Revel (P-430)
A San Giorgio class amphibious transport dock announced as getting deployed to Eastern Mediterranean

IKE CSG traveling off the Tunisian Coast.

Warships from the following countries underway or deployed in the Mediterranean currently.

Does not include vessels currently partaking in various naval exercises such as Dynamic Mariner 23 and Operations such as Operation Irini.

📎 Intelschizo

🇮🇱 ❌️ 🇸🇾 "The Israel Defense Force had Confirmed that they Struck Military Infrastructure in Southwestern Syria tonight in Response to recent Rocket Attacks from Syrian Territory into the Golan Heights, however these Strikes appear to have been against Iranian-Backed Militia Positions and not the 112th Mechanized Brigade like Syrian State Media is claiming, unless there have been multiple Strikes which is definitely possible."

📎 OSINTdefender

🇮🇶 — The Iraqi government spokesperson, Bassem Al-Awadi, allegedly stated, in response to MP Saud Al-Saadi's request to expel US forces from Iraq and close the American embassy, that "closing the U.S. Embassy will affect the Strategic Framework Agreement & will lead to the destruction of Iraq."

🇮🇷 — Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi threatens “other parties” would join Hamas in response to the Israel-Hamas war, and that it is impossible for the U.S. to defeat Iran.

🇮🇷 — 1News(وان نيوز) alleges that Iran sent a secret message to its pro-Iranian factions in Iraq warning, "to not share the same fate as the former Chief of Staff of the PMF, Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis, & former (IRGC-QF) commander Qassim Soleimani" due to U.S. drone capabilities.

🇺🇸 — Iraq: USAF BACN up most nights with Combat Air Patrols near Syria border, but very unusual to see E-11A BACN up near Baghdad tonight.