↖️ 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 China's military is increasingly formidable. As a result, there’s a good chance we won’t be able to deter China for the rest of the 2020s—and that US forces will be defeated if deterrence fails.

The USA might have better pilots, allied contributions (e.g., Australian E-7s) & innovative concepts (e.g., "pulsed airpower").

But we'll still be very limited by our aging AEW&C fleet, shorter-range air-to-air missiles & munitions shortfalls.

Together, PRC air, naval & shore-based defenses will make it very hard for US aircraft carriers & surface combatants to get close to Taiwan. This will seriously limit US naval forces' ability to help blunt a Chinese fait accompli. This is a key reason for doubts about CVNs.

At sea, China's navy is the world's largest, not counting fleets of paramilitary & civilian vessels that can be used for amphibious operations & targeting/counter-targeting.

Chinese surface combatants are also very capable even by US standards.

We've still got a qualitative advantage in the undersea.

But it's not clear we'll be able to fully capitalize due to potential torpedo shortfalls & limited numbers of SSNs likely to be in Asia early in a war.

And SSNs can only do so much alone.

In space, according to testimony, US military space architecture isn't resilient enough for a war & won't be until at least 2026.

China is modernizing its nuclear forces, incl. theater forces that could be used to significant operational effect. Yet our ability to deter PRC limited nuclear use is limited.

Most force structure changes that could make a big difference in Asia (e.g., B-21s) will take years to field at scale.

The question is how. Some say we should just increase defense spending—and that’s a fair argument. But it’s not a good bet.

So if we want to deter war—or win if it comes—we must work within existing constraints.

That means shifting resources in the DoD budget to focus on things that could make a difference in this decade.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/case-urgency-against-china-206790

🇷🇺❌🇽🇰— Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson, Dimitry Peskov: There is no doubt that the bloodshed [in Kosovo] is a direct consequence of Albin Kurti's course to incite conflict and cleanse the territory of Serbs.

🇧🇷🌎🔥 — El Niño: The Brazilian portion of the Amazon rainforest is currently facing a severe drought whose effects are already being felt, and if it continues, it could affect around 500,000 people by the end of this year.

☀️ The inhibition of raincloud formation and an increase in temperature lead to greater evaporation, reducing surface water and drying out soils and vegetation.

🎣 Another consequence affects fishing, which is the primary livelihood for many riverside communities.

In this context, the state of Amazonas declared an environmental emergency two weeks ago. As a result, 15 municipalities are under this regime, while another 40 are in a state of alert.

Source 🔗

#India (#Bharat) 🇮🇳: A new photo posted by a Kuki-Zo militia in #Manipur; allegedly during the recent clashes.

The militiaman can be seen with an Excalibur rifle and a Trichy Assault Rifle (TAR).
Both of the rifles are originally produced by India.

https://twitter.com/war_noir/status/1707005867156009188

🇰🇵🇺🇸 - Pyongyang announced it will deport American deserter Travis King, who fled to the DPRK after being found guilty of assault in a court-martial.

The Russian Aerospace Forces' Army Aviation conducted 16 flights to transport 142 Karabakh residents injured in a fuel tank explosion from Stepanakert to the territory of Armenia.

The Artsakh Defense Army, which was under blockade for 281 days and inflicted significant losses while not having basic resources to move from locations, without electricity or mobile connection to organize our defense.

The Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan officially announced 192 combat losses and 511 injuries during the "one-day" military operation.

These numbers are just the official number that is released by Azerbaijan and are likely to be more.

More than a million tons of Russian coal have recently arrived in Poland from Kaliningrad