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We are long WTI Crude Oil.

The evidences are starting to stack up in favor of either an escalation or a prolonged disruption of Hormuz that keeps prices high.

Just keep in mind, this trade is subject to catalysts that we have NO control on.

We can make educated and informed decisions on the context, but after all, anything can happen.

So, size small, and be ready to scratch the trade if the context changes.

Target 93

GBPUSD, I'm not in this trade anymore since I closed it at breakeven in the chop at the start of it.

But sharing this for context:

US Treasury Department announces increased sizes of nominal long end

Basically, the US Treasury is starting a mini QE program!

Bearish USD (bullish GBPUSD)

In simple, it will lower long end yields and add liquidity.

Not what an economist would define QE obviously!

But for us traders, that's all we need to know.

Again, bearish USD!

Once you understand the context, you understand the direction.

More ahead!

WTI Crude Oil, moving stop loss at breakeven.

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He's not "just guessing" here, he has the inside scoop obviously.

Next BoJ meeting on September 18

We continue to run long term CHFJPY shorts.

Went short at 200.00, partials taken at 194.00 after the intervention, and added a refill at 198.30

Loud and clear!

US Treasury Secretary Bessent on the Yen:

I have information that the market doesn't have

They’re just getting started on the Yen.

We continue to run CHFJPY downside.

Long term target 183.30

Third warning from Bessent.

Again, he's NOT "just guessing" here.

He has the information already.

Japan (with the US support) is moving to strengthen the Yen.

Highly likely to be a faster pace of rate hikes soon (as BoJ Takada already hinted at)

We are short WTI Crude Oil.

From the WSJ:

President Trump is having private discussions with senior aides about potentially declaring the Iran war over

Look, maybe it’s true, maybe it’s not!

But what’s factually true about that headline is that the mid terms are approaching, and Trump needs and wants lower energy prices for it.

So he’s (most likely) going to pull out every possible trick to send OIL lower.

Target 80

This will seem outrageous, but even after this big move…

We expect more JPY strength, here’s why:

https://besomebodyfx.substack.com/p/the-yen-trade-continues

Spoiler alert, it’s a big deal!

You can listen to the traders who told you this was another “failed intervention”

Or you can listen to who told you in August it wasn't.

Full explainer of what to expect on the JPY from here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kS3NMUlM84o

It’s a big structural shift, do not fade it!

WTI Crude Oil, we're still short.

Keep in mind the weekend brings gap risks for OIL right now.

So if you’re following this trade make sure you’ve got all your risk parameters well in check before the weekly close.

Have a great weekend everybody!

More JPY strength ahead.

CHFJPY long term target still 183.30

WTI Crude Oil short stopped out.

Full transparency here!

Wrong analysis of the geopolitical context.

I was expecting a deescalation.

But both sides ended up gradually escalating over the past couple 4 days.

Macro view invalidated = trade invalidated