A week ago the market gave a US-Iran deal better than 75% odds. Today it is 27%, and the probability of the Strait of Hormuz reopening normally has fallen to 22%.

US crude jumped more than 8% to $94 as Iran ended negotiations and vowed to block the strait, the channel that carries roughly a fifth of global seaborne crude. Trump countered that prices will fall "like a rock." Both views cannot hold, and the spread between them is where the next move lives.

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AI-related companies have issued roughly $140 billion of investment-grade bonds this year, almost half of all IG issuance, and absorbed around $220 billion of venture funding. That concentration is now visible in credit markets: Nvidia's 5-year CDS prints near 38bps, just inside the 40bps on US Treasuries.

When a single company starts pricing tighter than the sovereign that backs the currency it borrows in, the market is making a statement about where it believes the safest cash flows now sit.

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Season 3 terms signing closes on 4 June 00:00 AM UTC.

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SpaceX is going public at a $1.77 trillion valuation, the largest IPO in history by a wide margin.

555.6 million shares at $135, a $75 billion raise. Retail has spent years getting exposure through proxies like space ETFs, which just crossed $5 billion in assets for the first time.

The appetite was never the question. Access was.

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The public companies built on crypto now trade in the same place as crypto itself.

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Zcash sat on a bug that could mint unlimited untraceable ZEC for nearly four years. Patched now, but ZEC is down 29% to $432.

Oversold, or fairly marked?

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Season 3 $BASED is distributed.

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Link to X

The SpaceX IPO market officially begins trading today, with less than two hours until the market opens.

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