π‘ U.S. stocks: The Nasdaq rose 1.18% and the S&P 500 gained 0.60%, led by technology and AI stocks.π‘ Gold: Recovered modestly after a sharp sell-off, continuing to hover around $4,000 per ounce.π‘ Bitcoin: Climbed toward $81,000 before pulling back, failing to sustain its gains.π‘ Altcoins: Many rebounded alongside BTC, but buying pressure remains too weak to confirm a trend reversal.
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π€ Probability of a hold: Approximately 91%, based on market expectations reflected in federal funds futures.π€ Current interest rate range: 3.75β4.00%, with markets strongly favoring no change.π€ 18:30 UTC: The Fed Chair will hold a press conference, offering signals on the outlook for interest rates and monetary policy.
Key focus: Investors will watch closely forπ€ any indication of a rate hike in December.
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π’ Oil prices fell during the October 27 session after Iran said it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz in just 4β5 days, rather than the previous seven-day timeline, if Tehranβs conditions are met.
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π£ 10β2 vote: Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack dissented, favoring another 0.25 percentage point hike. Notably, Septemberβs decision was unanimous at 12β0.π£ U.S. economy: The Fed upgraded its assessment of growth from βsolidβ to βstrong,β noting continued strength in consumption and investment.π£ Inflation: Remains elevated, with the Fed seeking more data before deciding its next move.π£ Geopolitical risks: Continue to create uncertainty for the U.S. economic outlook.π£ Notable message: The Fed removed language suggesting the rate adjustment would help inflation return to target soon, while reaffirming its commitment to bringing inflation back to 2%.
The Fed has paused rate hikes, but two dissenting votes and its cautious inflation message suggest that further tightening remains on the table.
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π€ Chair Kevin Warsh: Maintained a cautious message, stressing that inflation remains above the 2% target, without committing to a hike or a hold at the next meeting.π€ 2027 meeting schedule: The Fed will still hold eight meetings, but only seven are expected to include rate decisions, with one dedicated to long-term strategy.π€ Bitcoin: Continues to trade within $79,000β$81,000, with no clear catalyst for a breakout.
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β U.S. Q3 GDP (advance estimate):π€ Forecast: 3.2%π€ Previous quarter: 2.2%β September PCE inflation (year over year):π€ Forecast: 3.6%π€ Previous: 3.4%
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π₯π₯π₯ U.S. GDP BEATS FORECASTS, PCE INFLATION RISES IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS! πΊπΈ
π U.S. economic data released on October 29 showed Q3 GDP growth exceeded expectations, while PCE inflation continued to rise without surpassing forecasts.
π’ U.S. Q3 GDP: Grew 3.4%, beating the 3.2% forecast and significantly exceeding Q2βs 2.2%.
U.S. growth remains strong, but inflation persistently above the 2% target could keep the Fed cautious on interest rates, with implications for the USD, gold, stocks, and Bitcoin.
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π‘ September PCE (YoY): 3.6% β in line with forecasts, up from 3.4%.π‘ September PCE (MoM): 0.5% β in line with forecasts, up from 0.3%.π‘ Core PCE (YoY): 3.1% β in line with forecasts, up from 3.0%.π‘ Core PCE (MoM): 0.3% β in line with forecasts. Notably, Augustβs reading was revised upward from 0.2% to 0.3%.
U.S. growth remains strong, but inflation persistently above the 2% target could keep the Fed cautious on interest rates, with implications for the USD, gold, stocks, and Bitcoin.
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From controlling oil supplies to proposing the annexation of an entire country, Trumpβs remarks continue to draw attention. However, this remains an idea floated at a rally, not an official annexation plan.
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