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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ U.S. GOVERNMENT WALLET MOVES 12,267 BTC FROM THE BITFINEX CASE, WORTH AROUND $1 BILLION

πŸ’³ A wallet linked to the U.S. government has transferred 12,267 BTC, worth approximately $1.01 billion, from Bitcoin seized in connection with the 2016 Bitfinex hack. Almost all of it went to a new, unlabeled address.
🟣 The transaction took place at 9:33 a.m. New York time on October 8. No transfer to an exchange was observed.
🟣 This BTC was part of roughly 94,000 BTC seized in 2022 from Ilya Lichtenstein and Heather Morgan.
🟣 Unlike earlier transfers to Coinbase Prime, this move looks more like an internal wallet transfer than a sale.
🟣 A March 2025 executive order requires seized Bitcoin to be placed in the strategic reserve rather than sold.


πŸ–€ A wallet transfer does not mean the assets have been sold, but the series of successive moves is still enough to weigh on sentiment after BTC was recently driven down toward $80,000.

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πŸ”₯ FRANCE PROPOSES TAXING CRYPTO-TO-STABLECOIN SWAPS, ALLOWING LOSSES TO BE CARRIED FORWARD FOR 10 YEARS

πŸ‡«πŸ‡· The Finance Committee of France’s National Assembly has approved an amendment to the 2027 budget bill that would tax gains from crypto-to-stablecoin swaps, even without cashing out into euros or U.S. dollars.
- Tax would arise when swapping into a fiat-pegged stablecoin, rather than waiting until cashing out.
- Losses not fully offset during the year could be carried forward to offset gains from the same asset class over the next 10 years.
- The changes are expected to apply from 2027. The current crypto capital gains tax rate is approximately 31.4%.
- The committee also approved an exit tax for people holding more than €800,000 in crypto who leave France.
- A proposal to impose a personal wealth tax on crypto was rejected. These measures are not yet law and must still pass further parliamentary stages.

Swapping into stablecoins would no longer be a way to defer tax. The benefit for holders is that losses could be carried forward for 10 years.

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πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯ TRUMP SAYS HE WILL CALL PUTIN, KREMLIN HAS YET TO CONFIRM THE TIMING

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ President Trump said he has arranged a phone call with President Putin, expected to take place very soon. The Kremlin said the timing has not yet been agreed upon, but it will arrange the call if the U.S. takes the initiative.
πŸ“Œ Topics mentioned:
🟣 The focus is the death of an employee at a plague research institute in Irkutsk, Siberia.
🟣 Russia is investigating. Pneumonic plague has not been confirmed as the cause. Local officials described it as pneumonia of unknown origin.
🟣 The WHO assessed the risk to communities outside Russia as very low and requested full disclosure of information from Russia.
🟣 Trump said the U.S. does not believe this involves a biological weapon, but Russia has said little.


⚑️ Markets will pay more attention to what emerges from the call than whether it takes place, particularly any signals on Ukraine and sanctions. The deadline to finalize the Russia sanctions list under the Graham Act is October 18.

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🚨 MUSALEM: FED NEEDS FURTHER TIGHTENING AS INFLATION REMAINS HIGH

🚨 St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said inflation remains high and further tightening is needed to bring it back to the 2% target. He has not yet decided his position for the October meeting.
πŸ”΄ Key points:
πŸ–€ β€œFurther monetary policy tightening is needed to bring inflation back to target in a timely manner.”
πŸ–€ To reach 2% within roughly 18 months, interest rates should rise further over the next 6–9 months.
πŸ–€ He approaches each meeting with an open mind and has not decided his stance for October 27–28. He is not a voting member this year.
πŸ–€ The economy remains strong and the labor market is balanced. Businesses are more concerned about inflation than employment.
πŸ–€ Rising yields partly reflect interest rate expectations, AI investment and the budget deficit. He said the U.S. debt trajectory is unsustainable.

His tone reinforces the case for a rate hike before year-end, although rates could still remain unchanged in October.

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πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯ TRUMP RULES OUT ATTACKING IRAN BEFORE THE ELECTION, SAYS TALKS ARE PROGRESSING

✊ President Trump said the U.S. will not attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, adding that both sides are holding productive discussions to end the war.
πŸ–€ β€œWe will not attack Iran at any point before the midterm elections.”
πŸ–€ The blockade of Iranian ports remains in place. Trump said large volumes of oil are still flowing through Hormuz.
πŸ–€ A day earlier, the Pentagon was instructed to prepare options for resuming major military operations. Trump had considered launching strikes before the elections.
Oil fell around 2% following the announcement as πŸ–€the near-term war risk premium eased.

πŸ–€ Trump has verbally ruled out an attack before November 3. Risks after the elections and around the Strait of Hormuz remain.

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πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯ TRUMP: PUTIN AGREES TO SUPPLY MILLIONS OF TONNES OF DIESEL TO THE U.S. AND GLOBAL MARKETS

πŸ”ˆ President Trump said after his call with Putin that Russia would begin supplying diesel immediately to lower fuel prices ahead of the midterm elections. This marks a reversal of the sanctions policy toward Russia.
➑️ Supply schedule, according to Trump:
πŸ–€ More than 300,000 tonnes immediately, equivalent to approximately 2.25 million barrels.
πŸ–€ Another 500,000 tonnes in November.
πŸ–€ An additional 1 million tonnes afterward.
πŸ–€ Potentially another 3 million tonnes, depending on the condition of Russian refineries targeted by Ukraine.


The call was initially discussed in connection with the incident involving an employee at a research institute in Siberia. The announced outcome, however, was a diesel deal.


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🚨 LEDGER USERS IN SOUTHEAST ASIA HIT BY WALLET DRAINS: TRACKED LOSSES EXCEED $86 MILLION

πŸ”΄ Numerous users who purchased Ledger wallets through Southeast Asian reseller CryptoBillis have had funds drained across Bitcoin, Ethereum and TRON. On-chain investigator Specter has tracked losses exceeding $86 million. Another source reported nearly $93 million from more than 300 wallets.
πŸ–€ CryptoBillis primarily sells in Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia.
πŸ–€ Ledger is investigating. The company has not confirmed the total losses and says it has found no evidence that Ledger’s systems were compromised.
πŸ–€ Suspicions point to devices being tampered with or counterfeited during distribution, rather than a widespread Ledger software flaw.
πŸ–€ Ledger has instructed CryptoBillis to halt sales and shipments.

πŸ”₯ If you purchased a Ledger from CryptoBillis in the past 90 days:
- If you have not activated it, do not set it up.
- If you have already used it, immediately transfer your assets to a new wallet with a new seed phrase.
- Do not enter your old seed phrase into a suspicious device.


Buying hardware wallets from official sources and checking packaging seals before use remains the best way to minimize risk.


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πŸ”₯ OIL FALLS AFTER TRUMP ANNOUNCES RUSSIAN DIESEL PLAN

πŸ›’ Crude oil fell after Trump announced a deal to receive diesel from Russia, easing the supply risk premium ahead of the midterm elections.
πŸ“‰ Market reaction:
πŸ–€ WTI briefly approached $91, then fell below $90 after Trump’s post.
πŸ–€ New York diesel futures dropped nearly 5% to around $4.64–$4.67 per gallon.
πŸ–€ The initial 300,000-tonne shipment covers just over half a day of U.S. distillate demand, but the policy signal carries more weight than the volume.

This is the second move this week aimed at lowering diesel prices, after the EU agreed to release reserves at Trump’s request.

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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ BESSENT: U.S. COULD SEIZE $1 BILLION IN IRAN-LINKED CRYPTO THIS WEEK

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. β€œwill probably seize $1 billion in crypto this week.” He said authorities know where the assets are and are working to isolate them.

πŸ‘‰ Key points:
🟑 He spoke on Newsmax on October 8 as part of a campaign he described as β€œabsolute isolation” of Iran.
🟑 The campaign includes blockading Hormuz, restricting international flights and closing land routes to neighboring countries.
🟑 Bessent did not identify any wallets or cryptocurrencies, nor clarify whether this amount would be additional to previous seizures.
🟑 Since June, the Treasury has sanctioned seven Iranian crypto exchanges. Around $130 million was frozen in July.
🟑 In May, he claimed approximately $1 billion had been seized, but a subsequent official statement reported only nearly $500 million.

This is a policy statement, not confirmation of a completed seizure. Markets will watch for any confirmed on-chain transactions this week.

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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ TRUMP ESTABLISHES COMMITTEE TO INVESTIGATE FED GOVERNOR LISA COOK

πŸ‘ President Trump has formally established a committee to investigate allegations that Fed Governor Lisa Cook provided false information on one or more mortgage applications. The aim is to determine whether sufficient β€œcause” exists to remove her from office.
🟣 The three-member committee consists of Kevin Hassett, Andrea Lucas and Keith Sonderling.
🟣 A closed-door hearing at the White House is scheduled for November 5, two days after the midterm elections. Cook may submit written materials until November 10.
🟣 The allegations date back to 2021: Cook allegedly listed two homes in Georgia and Michigan as primary residences to secure more favorable interest rates.
🟣 Trump previously tried to fire her. The Supreme Court blocked that attempt.
🟣 Cook’s lawyer said an impartial hearing would conclude that she did not commit mortgage fraud and that no legal grounds exist for her removal.

If Cook is removed, her seat on the Fed’s Board of Governors will become vacant. This marks a new step in Trump’s effort to reshape the board.

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πŸ”₯ DBS: CHINA’S EXPORTS FORECAST TO RISE 25.7%, INPUT PRICES REBOUND

πŸ–€ DBS forecasts China’s September exports to rise 25.7% year over year, supported by strong electronics demand and an improving manufacturing PMI. Input prices are rising, but domestic demand remains weak.
πŸ–€ Both the official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs exceeded 50, indicating expanding factory activity.
πŸ–€ Cargo throughput growth across 20 major ports rose from -0.7% to 7.2%. Growth in international cargo flights increased from -1.4% to 3.6%.
πŸ–€ The raw material purchase price index rose from 56.6 to 60.8. The output price index increased from 50.4 to 54.0, partly due to geopolitical tensions.
πŸ–€ CPI inflation is forecast to edge up to 1.0%, but weak domestic demand continues to restrain consumer price pressures.


πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ Exports and input prices are improving. China’s challenge remains weak domestic demand.

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πŸ”΄ U.S. ECONOMIC CALENDAR (UTC)
WEEK 03 – OCTOBER 2026

πŸ—“ This week, markets will be heavily focused on U.S. inflation, with CPI, PPI, Core CPI, and Core PPI likely to directly influence Fed rate expectations ahead of the late-October meeting. Other key releases include Retail Sales, the Beige Book, and Industrial Production.

πŸ‘‰ Key times to watch:
🟒 12:30, Wednesday Oct. 14: September CPI + Core CPI
πŸ–€ 18:00, Wednesday Oct. 14: Fed Beige Book
🟒 12:30, Thursday Oct. 15: September PPI + Core PPI
🟒 12:30, Thursday Oct. 15: September Retail Sales
πŸ–€ 12:30, Thursday Oct. 15: Initial Jobless Claims + Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
πŸ–€ 03:30, Friday Oct. 16: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at an IMF event
πŸ–€ 13:15, Friday Oct. 16: Industrial Production + Capacity Utilization

πŸ“ˆ The biggest focus this week is CPI on Oct. 14. If inflation comes in hotter than expected, markets could increase the probability of another Fed rate hike later this month. Softer CPI, on the other hand, would strengthen the case for keeping rates unchanged. These releases could drive significant volatility across the U.S. dollar, gold, U.S. stocks, Bitcoin, and Treasury yields.

View News Sources

Wishing everyone a smooth trading week ahead! πŸ’ͺ

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🚨 LEDGER: THE ATTACK ONLY AFFECTS WALLETS SOLD THROUGH CRYPTOBILIS

πŸ”΄Ledger confirmed that the incident involves only certain wallets distributed through CryptoBilis in Southeast Asia.
πŸ–€ Ledger’s internal systems were not compromised
πŸ–€ Ledger’s official sales channels remain safe
πŸ–€ The affected devices are currently limited to a batch supplied through this distributor

Users who purchased directly from Ledger or through official channels are currently outside the disclosed scope of the incident.

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πŸ”₯πŸ”₯πŸ”₯ TRUMP: RUSSIA AND UKRAINE HAVE AGREED TO AN β€œENERGY CEASEFIRE”

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ President Trump said Russia and Ukraine have agreed to stop attacking each other’s energy facilities, effective immediately.
🟣 Trump said both sides had agreed
🟣 Russia has not officially confirmed the agreement
🟣 Ukraine said it welcomes the proposal but is still awaiting details from the U.S.
🟣 Kyiv said attacks on energy infrastructure continued after the announcement
πŸ›’ Brent fell around 1.6% to $103 per barrel as markets anticipated easing supply risks

βœ… Positive news for oil markets if the halt to attacks on energy facilities is actually implemented. For now, however, markets are pricing in expectations β€” this is not yet an agreement fully confirmed by both Russia and Ukraine.

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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ U.S. ISSUES $22 BILLION IN 30-YEAR BONDS β€” YIELD HITS 5.618%, HIGHEST SINCE 2000

🟒 The U.S. Treasury auctioned $22 billion in 30-year bonds at a yield of 5.618%, the highest since 2000.
🟑 The 10-year yield remains around 5.3%, near a 24-year high
🟑 The bid-to-cover ratio reached 2.54, indicating demand remained fairly strong
🟑 Indirect bidders, primarily foreign investors, bought approximately 72.3% of the issuance
🟑 The U.S. government’s long-term borrowing costs are near their highest levels in more than two decades

βœ”οΈ Higher yields are attracting buyers back, but they also show that the U.S. is paying an increasingly steep price to borrow for the long term.

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πŸ”₯ MIDDLE EAST TENSIONS FLARE AGAIN: RIYADH AIRPORT COMES UNDER ANOTHER ATTACK

🚨 A fresh attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh over the weekend further escalated tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.
- The latest attack killed 1 person and injured 11
- A day earlier, Riyadh airport was also attacked, leaving more than 300 people injured
- The Houthis continued warning airlines to avoid Saudi airports
- Saudi Arabia intensified airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen
- The U.S. is considering deeper involvement in the campaign against the Houthis


πŸ›’ Tensions around Saudi Arabia and Red Sea oil shipping routes remain a major factor for oil prices and risk-off sentiment at the start of the week.

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