📈 Wintermute Market View – Week 4, April 2026

US equities (S&P 500 & Nasdaq) have reached new all-time highs, crude oil surged 15% in the week, yet US consumer confidence dropped to a record low of 49.8 — even lower than during the 2008 financial crisis and COVID.

🖤 US–Iran negotiations collapsed over the weekend, while the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues, signaling escalating geopolitical tensions.

Bitcoin holds firmly above $76K, with ~$2B in ETF inflows over 8 consecutive days, and exchange reserves at a 7-year low. Shorts have been heavily squeezed — a “disbelief rally” that keeps grinding higher.

🖤 Macro Outlook: AI capital expenditure (AI CapEx) is increasingly absorbing energy costs. Markets may be front-running a potential deal — or simply becoming complacent.

🖤 Key Events This Week: FOMC meeting + MAG7 earnings will be decisive

(MAG7 earnings = quarterly results of the 7 largest US tech companies.)

🖤 Crypto Overview:
🖤 The rally is widely doubted, yet institutional players (funds, financial firms, ETFs) are aggressively accumulating
🖤 Bitcoin continues its steady uptrend, while altcoins are starting to move independently

👉 Keep a close eye on high-yield spreads and overall market breadth

Source: Wintermute – OTC Desk

@BackcomGlobal

🚨 Fed Interest Rate Decision & FOMC Statement – Upcoming

🔴 Time: 06:00 PM, April 29, 2026 (UTC)

About 30 minutes later, the FOMC will hold a press conference, typically the most hawkish and volatile moment

Rate Decision Expectations (April 29, 2026)
🖤 Hold at 3.75%: 98.9%
🖤 Cut by 25 bps (0.25%): 1.1%

Stay sharp around the release time — this is when volatility usually spikes.

@BackcomGlobal

💥 The Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive meeting

In its latest policy meeting, the Fed decided to maintain rates at 3.5% – 3.75%, marking the third straight pause following last year’s rate cuts.

📌 Key reasons from the Fed:

🖤 The economy remains resilient, but inflation is showing signs of re-accelerating
🖤 The labor market is largely flat, with slowing job growth
🖤 External risks are rising, particularly Middle East tensions, putting pressure on energy prices and complicating the inflation outlook

📉 Market reaction:

🖤 Gold & Silver dropped more than 1% as the USD strengthened and rate-cut expectations were pushed back
🖤 U.S. equities declined across the board, with major indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones turning red amid concerns that the Fed’s pivot may come later than expected

⭐️ Outlook:
The Fed still signals the possibility of one rate cut later this year, but emphasizes that all decisions will remain data-dependent going forward.

🚫 Iran issues a 14-point “ultimatum,” aiming to end the war within 30 days

According to Tasnim News Agency and Fars News Agency, Iran has submitted a new negotiation proposal to the U.S. via Pakistan as a mediator, in response to Washington’s earlier 9-point proposal.

📌 Key highlights of Iran’s proposal:
🖤 Shortened timeline: Instead of a 2-month ceasefire, Iran demands a full resolution of the conflict within 30 days.
🖤 Complete end to the war: Rejects any “temporary truce” that could lead to renewed conflict later.
🖤 Calls for a full U.S. military withdrawal, along with the removal of blockades and sanctions.
🖤 Demands compensation for damages and the release of frozen assets.
🖤 Seeks a long-term peace framework, including a joint management mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz.

❌ However, Donald Trump quickly rejected the proposal, stating that the terms are “not sufficient” given what Iran has done over the past 47 years. He also signaled that the U.S. could continue airstrikes in the near future.

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🚨 NORTH KOREA OFFICIALLY RESPONDS TO CRYPTO HACKING ALLEGATIONS

Since 2017, the United States, the United Nations, and various blockchain organizations have repeatedly presented on-chain evidence accusing North Korea of being behind roughly $6B in stolen crypto, allegedly used to fund its nuclear program.

❌ However, in a rare move, North Korea has officially denied all allegations, calling them “groundless slander” spread by pro-U.S. media. A spokesperson from its Foreign Ministry even mocked the U.S. — a country with top-tier cyber capabilities — for claiming to be the biggest victim.

📊 Key figures:
🖤 2020–2021: under 10% of hacks attributed to North Korea
🖤 2025: surged to 64%
🖤 Early 2026: accounted for 76% of total global losses

🔖 Two largest recent incidents:
🖤 KelpDAO: ~$292M
🖤 Drift: ~$285M

💥 Oil surges, crypto drops as Iran signals no willingness to negotiate

According to Fars News Agency, the naval forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) have released a map outlining their strategic control zone in the Strait of Hormuz.

⏸ Defined scope:
🖤 West: from Qeshm Island (Iran) extending to Umm Al Quwain (UAE)
🖤 East: from Mobarak Mountain (Iran) stretching to Fujairah (UAE)

📈 Oil prices immediately surged past $111, while Bitcoin reversed and dropped sharply.

🚨 What Could Trigger a Real Black Swan Event in 2026?

After Q1 2026 results, two major risks are converging and could create a genuine “Black Swan” event:

I. Private Credit Market Under Extreme Stress
- Total size has ballooned past $2.1 trillion
- BlackRock’s HLEND and Blackstone’s BCRED saw billions in withdrawal requests
- Default rates surging: from 3-4% to 8-9%. Fitch reported 5.8% (12-month trailing), UBS warns it could hit 15% in a bad scenario
- Many funds forced to gate redemptions or inject emergency capital
- High-profile bankruptcies: First Brands, Tricolor, MSF (with fraud allegations) raising serious questions about true credit quality and valuations

II. Massive AI CapEx Bubble
- Big Tech (AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, META) plans to spend a record $725 billion in 2026 on capital expenditures — +77% from last year’s record
- AI revenue and profits are not keeping pace → Free Cash Flow turning negative, ROIC expected to drop sharply
- Strong parallels with the telecom/dot-com capex peak in the late 1990s

CapEx AI = Massive capital expenditures by Big Tech on AI infrastructure (data centers, GPUs, power plants, cooling systems, etc.).

III. The Most Dangerous Intersection
Private credit has 20-26% exposure to software & technology companies — exactly the sector most vulnerable to disruption by “agentic AI.”

When these companies start defaulting en masse, the domino effect begins:
Redemption wave → Forced sales of illiquid assets → NAV collapse → Contagion to banks, insurance companies, and retail investors now heavily exposed to private credit.

The market is currently in a “slow bleed” phase. But this slow pace, lack of transparency, and high leverage is exactly what makes a classic Black Swan so dangerous — everyone sees the risks, but few believe it will explode in 2026.

👉 Key Things to Watch Closely
- Private credit default rates in Q2
- Real AI monetization progress from Big Tech
- Any liquidity crunch signals in BDCs (Business Development Companies)

❗️ History’s Reminder: When high leverage meets sudden technological disruption, the outcome is rarely “soft.”

This is not doom-mongering — it’s a data-driven warning.
Prepare your mindset and portfolio for the worst-case scenario.

@BackcomGlobal

🚨 Telegram officially takes over leadership of the TON network

✔️ After completing the first two phases—boosting network speed by 10x and reducing transaction fees to near zero—Pavel Durov has announced step 3 of the roadmap: Telegram will replace TON Foundation as the leading force behind The Open Network, while also becoming the network’s largest validator.

📊 Within the next 2–3 weeks, TON is expected to launch a new ton.org website, updated developer tools, and multiple performance upgrades, focusing on strengthening its technological edge.

⚡️ This marks step 3 in the 7-step plan titled “Make TON Great Again.” Following the announcement, $TON surged about 5% before pulling back.

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📊 Phong Le, CEO of Strategy, said the company is willing to consider selling Bitcoin in the future if it helps increase Bitcoin value per share for shareholders.

📌 According to him, options such as selling part of its BTC holdings for USD or restructuring debt could be considered if they provide long-term benefits for the company and investors.

👉 The comments come as Chairman Michael Saylor recently hinted at the possibility of selling BTC to pay dividends, sparking renewed debate within the community over the famous “never sell” philosophy.

💳 Market Perspective Through $INTC: Is the AI Bubble Repeating the Dot-com?

As of May 05, 2026, $INTC is trading at 109.38 USD (+15.77% in 24h). However, the long-term monthly chart shows concerning signs.

🖤 1995-2001 Period: Intel exploded during the Dot-com Bubble, then collapsed -82.7%. Followed by 17 years of sideways trading (15-35 USD).

🖤 2020-2025 Period: Strong surge thanks to AI hype, reaching 91.63 USD (+511%). The chart is now marking “AI BUBBLES?” with a red zone “CRASH?” ahead.

🖤 Comparison by Era
🖤 Dot-com: Intel was the CPU KING → Direct beneficiary
🖤 AI Cycle: Intel is lagging behind Nvidia, TSMC, Broadcom

🖤 Current Positive Points
🖤 Strong rebound
🖤 Heavy investment in 18A & Foundry
🖤 Potential orders from Microsoft, Amazon

🖤 Existing Risks
🖤 Foundry business still heavily loss-making
🖤 Fierce competition
🖤 Valuation no longer cheap if AI capex slows

The monthly chart is flashing a warning — Intel may be at the end of a bubble cycle, but this time it is not the leader like before.

Intel remains a solid blue-chip, but risk-reward needs careful consideration in the AI era!

@BackcomGlobal

🇺🇸 The White House is aiming to pass a comprehensive crypto bill as early as July.

Senior crypto advisor Patrick Witt stated that the current goal is to turn the broad crypto legislation into law before July 4.

📌 Under the plan, the U.S. Senate may push the bill forward in June, after which the House of Representatives will review, finalize, and pass the final version.

⚖️ The core of the bill is to establish a federal regulatory framework for crypto for the first time, including clearly dividing oversight responsibilities between the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

🎯 If the timeline is met, this could mark a major turning point for the U.S. crypto market—and potentially serve as a significant “birthday gift” ahead of Independence Day and the country’s 250th anniversary.

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