BJE’s second issue of 2025 offers new insights into trade, development, and innovation across BRICS and emerging economies. Articles analyze intra-BRICS trade’s influence on the global currency landscape, the interplay between trade, renewables, and essential services in achieving sustainable development, and key policy determinants shaping human development in Pakistan. Further contributions include a neural network-based forecast of currency crises in South Africa, a sectoral innovation systems comparison in South Africa and Brazil, and evidence on the manufacturing sector’s asymmetric sensitivity to exchange rates and credit flows. The issue also explores how the renewable energy transition impacts life expectancy in BRICS and presents a comparative view of managerial thinking through the lens of spiral dynamics.
BRICS Journal of Economics
BRICS Journal of Economics 6
BRICS Journal of Economics is an international peer-reviewed, open access journal, providing a platform for the dissemination of original research on contemporary economic trends in middle-income developing countries. The journal publishes scientific articles…
🔥1
Impact of intra-BRICS trade on the share of United States dollar in international reserve composition
Danil Fliagin, Mutiu Abdulganiyu
The study examines the impact of the BRICS countries’ trade on the composition of their US dollar reserves using dynamic panel data analysis. The research aims to determine if the trade between the BRICS countries promotes currency diversification or reinforces their reliance on the dollar.
The paper adopts a dynamic panel data model using the Mean Group (MG), Pooled Mean Group (PMG), and Dynamic Fixed Effect (DFE) estimators for annual data from 2006 to 2022.
The empirical results reveal a short-term currency diversification away from the dollar, which may be caused by intra-BRICS non-dollar trade agreements. Yet, the analysis gave no conclusive evidence of currency diversification in the long term. The Hausman test points to the PMG estimator as the most efficient, confirming robust model reliability. These findings indicate a complex interaction between trade and reserve dynamics, driven in part by the BRICS efforts to reduce dependency on the dollar as a vehicle currency.
This study is among the first to apply dynamic panel data models to explore the impact of BRICS trade on the member countries’ US dollar reserves. It combines MG, PMG, and DFE estimators to assess the short-term and long-term effects of the trade, thus offering new insights into the dual nature of trade impacts on currency reserves and emphasizing the strategic role of BRICS in the global financial landscape.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/143810/
Danil Fliagin, Mutiu Abdulganiyu
The study examines the impact of the BRICS countries’ trade on the composition of their US dollar reserves using dynamic panel data analysis. The research aims to determine if the trade between the BRICS countries promotes currency diversification or reinforces their reliance on the dollar.
The paper adopts a dynamic panel data model using the Mean Group (MG), Pooled Mean Group (PMG), and Dynamic Fixed Effect (DFE) estimators for annual data from 2006 to 2022.
The empirical results reveal a short-term currency diversification away from the dollar, which may be caused by intra-BRICS non-dollar trade agreements. Yet, the analysis gave no conclusive evidence of currency diversification in the long term. The Hausman test points to the PMG estimator as the most efficient, confirming robust model reliability. These findings indicate a complex interaction between trade and reserve dynamics, driven in part by the BRICS efforts to reduce dependency on the dollar as a vehicle currency.
This study is among the first to apply dynamic panel data models to explore the impact of BRICS trade on the member countries’ US dollar reserves. It combines MG, PMG, and DFE estimators to assess the short-term and long-term effects of the trade, thus offering new insights into the dual nature of trade impacts on currency reserves and emphasizing the strategic role of BRICS in the global financial landscape.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/143810/
🔥2
Navigating the Sustainable Development Trilemma: Trade, Renewable Energy, and Basic Services Across Global Economies
Tryson Yangailo
This study explores the complex relationships between trade openness, CO₂ emissions, renewable energy consumption, GDP growth, and access to basic services in different economic contexts — developed, developing, and emerging economies. Using the World Bank data from 2000 to 2022, the study employs correlation and regression analysis to understand how these factors interact and affect sustainability and economic performance. The results show significant regional differences. Developed economies, characterized by high trade-to-GDP ratios, have lower CO₂ emissions but experience negative effects on GDP growth due to trade dependence. In contrast, emerging economies, with the lowest trade-to-GDP ratios, show smaller reductions in CO₂ emissions from trade and more pronounced environmental impacts. Developing countries with moderate trade ratios show mixed results in terms of economic and environmental outcomes. Renewable energy consumption emerges as a critical factor, especially in developing and emerging economies. In developing countries, high renewable energy use is positively associated with GDP growth and mitigates the negative impact of trade on carbon emissions. Emerging economies benefit significantly from increased investment in renewable energy, although their consumption remains moderate. Access to basic services such as sanitation and drinking water varies widely across regions. Developed economies enjoy high access, which supports stable economic conditions, while developing economies struggle with low access, which negatively impacts both economic and environmental outcomes. Emerging economies fall in between, requiring substantial infrastructure upgrades to improve sustainability. Gross capital formation has a mixed impact, with limited direct influence on CO₂ emissions and GDP growth, but remains critical to overall development. The study highlights the need for developed economies to reduce trade dependence and foster domestic innovation, for emerging economies to prioritize renewable energy investments, and for developing economies to balance renewable energy investments with infrastructure development. These findings are essential for policymakers seeking to integrate economic growth with environmental sustainability.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/136634/
Tryson Yangailo
This study explores the complex relationships between trade openness, CO₂ emissions, renewable energy consumption, GDP growth, and access to basic services in different economic contexts — developed, developing, and emerging economies. Using the World Bank data from 2000 to 2022, the study employs correlation and regression analysis to understand how these factors interact and affect sustainability and economic performance. The results show significant regional differences. Developed economies, characterized by high trade-to-GDP ratios, have lower CO₂ emissions but experience negative effects on GDP growth due to trade dependence. In contrast, emerging economies, with the lowest trade-to-GDP ratios, show smaller reductions in CO₂ emissions from trade and more pronounced environmental impacts. Developing countries with moderate trade ratios show mixed results in terms of economic and environmental outcomes. Renewable energy consumption emerges as a critical factor, especially in developing and emerging economies. In developing countries, high renewable energy use is positively associated with GDP growth and mitigates the negative impact of trade on carbon emissions. Emerging economies benefit significantly from increased investment in renewable energy, although their consumption remains moderate. Access to basic services such as sanitation and drinking water varies widely across regions. Developed economies enjoy high access, which supports stable economic conditions, while developing economies struggle with low access, which negatively impacts both economic and environmental outcomes. Emerging economies fall in between, requiring substantial infrastructure upgrades to improve sustainability. Gross capital formation has a mixed impact, with limited direct influence on CO₂ emissions and GDP growth, but remains critical to overall development. The study highlights the need for developed economies to reduce trade dependence and foster domestic innovation, for emerging economies to prioritize renewable energy investments, and for developing economies to balance renewable energy investments with infrastructure development. These findings are essential for policymakers seeking to integrate economic growth with environmental sustainability.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/136634/
👏2
Policy Pathways for Progress: Study of Economic, Environmental, and Governance Determinants of HDI in Pakistan
Imran Ali
This study examines the key economic, environmental and governance determinants of the Human Development Index (HDI) in Pakistan, using a multidimensional framework to analyze their long- and short-term dynamics. Using annual data from 1990 to 2022 the research applies Johansen Cointegration Test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to assess the relationships between HDI and factors that may exert influence on its dynamics, including exports, remittances, military expenditure, carbon dioxide emissions, debt service, population growth, and women’s parliamentary representation. Its findings reveal that governance and demographic factors, particularly women’s representation in parliament and population growth, have significant positive impacts on the country’s HDI in the long run, highlighting the importance of inclusive governance and resource management. Conversely, economic variables such as exports and remittances appear to have negative long-term effects on the HDI, suggesting structural inefficiencies in Pakistan’s trade and remittance policies. Environmental degradation, represented by carbon dioxide emissions, poses a significant challenge with adverse effects on the HDI, in both the short and long term. Military expenditure demonstrates dual effect: while it supports the HDI in the long run by fostering stability, in the short run it diverts resources away from critical social investments. The study emphasizes the need for policy reforms to diversify exports, formalize remittance channels, and adopt sustainability-focused environmental strategies. To promote equitable development, it is essential to increase women’s representation in governance and balance the defense and social spending. This research contributes new insights by integrating economic, environmental, and governance dimensions into unified analytical framework tailored to Pakistan’s socioeconomic context and provides actionable recommendations for policymakers to prioritize sustainable and inclusive development initiatives in line with the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/146935/
Imran Ali
This study examines the key economic, environmental and governance determinants of the Human Development Index (HDI) in Pakistan, using a multidimensional framework to analyze their long- and short-term dynamics. Using annual data from 1990 to 2022 the research applies Johansen Cointegration Test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to assess the relationships between HDI and factors that may exert influence on its dynamics, including exports, remittances, military expenditure, carbon dioxide emissions, debt service, population growth, and women’s parliamentary representation. Its findings reveal that governance and demographic factors, particularly women’s representation in parliament and population growth, have significant positive impacts on the country’s HDI in the long run, highlighting the importance of inclusive governance and resource management. Conversely, economic variables such as exports and remittances appear to have negative long-term effects on the HDI, suggesting structural inefficiencies in Pakistan’s trade and remittance policies. Environmental degradation, represented by carbon dioxide emissions, poses a significant challenge with adverse effects on the HDI, in both the short and long term. Military expenditure demonstrates dual effect: while it supports the HDI in the long run by fostering stability, in the short run it diverts resources away from critical social investments. The study emphasizes the need for policy reforms to diversify exports, formalize remittance channels, and adopt sustainability-focused environmental strategies. To promote equitable development, it is essential to increase women’s representation in governance and balance the defense and social spending. This research contributes new insights by integrating economic, environmental, and governance dimensions into unified analytical framework tailored to Pakistan’s socioeconomic context and provides actionable recommendations for policymakers to prioritize sustainable and inclusive development initiatives in line with the global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/146935/
🔥2
Predicting Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: A Case Study on South Africa Using Artificial Neural Networks
Gladys Fernandes-Gondoza, Ronney Ncwadi, John Manuel Fernandes, Farai Nyika
Purpose: In this paper, we study the potential of using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models to predict currency crises in emerging markets, with a specific focus on the South African economy. South Africa’s rand is one of the most volatile currencies in the world and is prone to crises.
Methodology: We built two ANN models, where Model 1 uses ten economic indicators and Model 2 uses four. These models were assessed for statistical significance (using probit analysis), and their performance in predicting major South African currency crises (e.g., 1998, 2001, and 2008) was tested with both in-sample and out-of-sample data.
Results: The first model was much more accurate than Model 2 in predicting early warning signs nearly two years before the currency crises occurred. Model 1’s higher accuracy is attributed to its inclusion of a greater number of economic variables. Both models occasionally produced false positives, though overall, they were very accurate in predicting crises.
Originality: Our paper highlights the importance of ANNs in capturing nonlinear patterns in economic data, demonstrating their strength as early warning tools for financial crises. We recommend that ANN methods continue to be researched and advanced to further reduce false positives and improve predictive performance.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/141556/
Gladys Fernandes-Gondoza, Ronney Ncwadi, John Manuel Fernandes, Farai Nyika
Purpose: In this paper, we study the potential of using Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models to predict currency crises in emerging markets, with a specific focus on the South African economy. South Africa’s rand is one of the most volatile currencies in the world and is prone to crises.
Methodology: We built two ANN models, where Model 1 uses ten economic indicators and Model 2 uses four. These models were assessed for statistical significance (using probit analysis), and their performance in predicting major South African currency crises (e.g., 1998, 2001, and 2008) was tested with both in-sample and out-of-sample data.
Results: The first model was much more accurate than Model 2 in predicting early warning signs nearly two years before the currency crises occurred. Model 1’s higher accuracy is attributed to its inclusion of a greater number of economic variables. Both models occasionally produced false positives, though overall, they were very accurate in predicting crises.
Originality: Our paper highlights the importance of ANNs in capturing nonlinear patterns in economic data, demonstrating their strength as early warning tools for financial crises. We recommend that ANN methods continue to be researched and advanced to further reduce false positives and improve predictive performance.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/141556/
👍3
Sectoral systems of innovation in two BRICS countries: A case of the clothing, textile, leather, and footwear sector of South Africa and Brazil
Sipho Mbatha
Clothing, textiles, leather, and footwear (CTLF) sector of South Africa has been a priority sector for the government for almost two decades. However, the CTLF sector has not been able to achieve the reindustrialisation levels envisaged by the government and other stakeholders. It is therefore necessary to explore the possibilities of gaining competitive advantage and also understand the challenges facing the sectoral systems of innovation that impede the development of the CTLF sector in South Africa. Through the triple helix theory of innovation and Porter’s diamond model of competitive advantage, this review paper looks at the CTLF sectors of two BRICS nations, Brazil and South Africa, in an attempt to determine the factors that could jump-start the competitive development of the South African CTLF sector. This paper outlines proposals for improving the sectoral systems of innovation in South Africa’s CTLF industry, which should help it gain competitive advantage. It also makes a scholarly contribution to designing strategies that could be used to enhance collaboration among the BRICS nations.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/141289/
Sipho Mbatha
Clothing, textiles, leather, and footwear (CTLF) sector of South Africa has been a priority sector for the government for almost two decades. However, the CTLF sector has not been able to achieve the reindustrialisation levels envisaged by the government and other stakeholders. It is therefore necessary to explore the possibilities of gaining competitive advantage and also understand the challenges facing the sectoral systems of innovation that impede the development of the CTLF sector in South Africa. Through the triple helix theory of innovation and Porter’s diamond model of competitive advantage, this review paper looks at the CTLF sectors of two BRICS nations, Brazil and South Africa, in an attempt to determine the factors that could jump-start the competitive development of the South African CTLF sector. This paper outlines proposals for improving the sectoral systems of innovation in South Africa’s CTLF industry, which should help it gain competitive advantage. It also makes a scholarly contribution to designing strategies that could be used to enhance collaboration among the BRICS nations.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/141289/
👍3
Asymmetric Responses of Manufacturing Sector to Changes in Exchange Rates, and Bank Credits: Developing Country Evidence
Beauty Igbinovia, Shilo Samuel Akpan, Festus Omenihu Mbagwu, Umole Igienekpemhe Mohammad, David Umoru
This paper analyses the asymmetric responses of manufacturing output to changes in exchange rates and bank credit in Nigeria. The results reveal significant countercyclical effects of exchange rate changes on manufacturing output. Bank credit to the private sector was the only predictor with procyclical effects on Nigeria’s manufacturing output. As these responses are often impacted by behavioural patterns, shifts in policy and economic fluctuations, the study employed the non-linear ARDL method alongside the Wald test, Quandt-Andrews and Zivot-Andrews tests. The results of the phase shift analysis show that in Nigeria, only private sector credit leads the manufacturing output cycle, while changes in the exchange rate, inflation and lending rates lag behind. Regardless of the timeframe, manufacturing output was adversely affected by positive and negative changes or variations in the exchange rate. Shifts in bank credit, whether positive or negative, had a positive and considerable effect on manufacturing production. The Wald test confirms the presence of asymmetry in the effects of the exchange rate and private credit on output. The Quandt-Andrews F-statistics for both the maximum likelihood ratio (LR) and Wald statistics, as well as the Zivot-Andrews intercept and trend test results, show that there were breakpoints in bank credit and exchange rate variations in different years, particularly in 2016 and 2020, which marked periods of economic recession, health pandemics, policy shifts, external shocks and macroeconomic instability, as measured by rising petrol pump prices. Neither model, with or without structural breaks, supports the conventional economic theory that devaluation leads to an expansion in output. This is attributed to the contractionary effect of naira depreciation in the context of significant foreign currency-denominated external debt. The negative output effect of naira devaluation in Nigeria was also explained by the low level of competition among domestic firms. In the short term, the results further account for the inflation-output trade-off in Nigeria’s manufacturing industry, while in the long term, the neutrality principle does not fully apply to Nigeria, whose financial market is still emerging, hampered by structural imbalances in the economy. To minimize arbitrage, the Nigerian government should implement financial policies capable of closing the gap between devaluation and appreciation of the naira exchange rates. Specifically, the monetary authorities should set credible inflation targets, and the rate of interest adjustment should align with these targets. This can be achieved by creating an autonomous central bank responsible for maintaining price stability. The research findings will be valuable to manufacturers, the financial sector and small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) owners, both in and outside Nigeria. SMEs and manufacturing industries can benefit from government funding, aid, or investment tax breaks. Such initiatives may take the form of reinvestment allowances, amortization allowances or cash-based grants.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/142921/
Beauty Igbinovia, Shilo Samuel Akpan, Festus Omenihu Mbagwu, Umole Igienekpemhe Mohammad, David Umoru
This paper analyses the asymmetric responses of manufacturing output to changes in exchange rates and bank credit in Nigeria. The results reveal significant countercyclical effects of exchange rate changes on manufacturing output. Bank credit to the private sector was the only predictor with procyclical effects on Nigeria’s manufacturing output. As these responses are often impacted by behavioural patterns, shifts in policy and economic fluctuations, the study employed the non-linear ARDL method alongside the Wald test, Quandt-Andrews and Zivot-Andrews tests. The results of the phase shift analysis show that in Nigeria, only private sector credit leads the manufacturing output cycle, while changes in the exchange rate, inflation and lending rates lag behind. Regardless of the timeframe, manufacturing output was adversely affected by positive and negative changes or variations in the exchange rate. Shifts in bank credit, whether positive or negative, had a positive and considerable effect on manufacturing production. The Wald test confirms the presence of asymmetry in the effects of the exchange rate and private credit on output. The Quandt-Andrews F-statistics for both the maximum likelihood ratio (LR) and Wald statistics, as well as the Zivot-Andrews intercept and trend test results, show that there were breakpoints in bank credit and exchange rate variations in different years, particularly in 2016 and 2020, which marked periods of economic recession, health pandemics, policy shifts, external shocks and macroeconomic instability, as measured by rising petrol pump prices. Neither model, with or without structural breaks, supports the conventional economic theory that devaluation leads to an expansion in output. This is attributed to the contractionary effect of naira depreciation in the context of significant foreign currency-denominated external debt. The negative output effect of naira devaluation in Nigeria was also explained by the low level of competition among domestic firms. In the short term, the results further account for the inflation-output trade-off in Nigeria’s manufacturing industry, while in the long term, the neutrality principle does not fully apply to Nigeria, whose financial market is still emerging, hampered by structural imbalances in the economy. To minimize arbitrage, the Nigerian government should implement financial policies capable of closing the gap between devaluation and appreciation of the naira exchange rates. Specifically, the monetary authorities should set credible inflation targets, and the rate of interest adjustment should align with these targets. This can be achieved by creating an autonomous central bank responsible for maintaining price stability. The research findings will be valuable to manufacturers, the financial sector and small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) owners, both in and outside Nigeria. SMEs and manufacturing industries can benefit from government funding, aid, or investment tax breaks. Such initiatives may take the form of reinvestment allowances, amortization allowances or cash-based grants.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/142921/
🔥3
Renewable Energy Transition and Life Expectancy in the BRICS Countries
Nyiko Worship Hlongwane, Hlalefang Khobai
This study aims to investigate the impact of disaggregated renewable energy sources on life expectancy in the BRICS nations from 1990 to 2023, using linear, non-linear and non-parametric models. This research challenges long-held beliefs about the impact of renewable energy on human health. It reveals the intricate links between different energy sources and life expectancy in the BRICS countries. Based on the QPNARDL results, hydropower is found to harm life expectancy. Based on the PNARDL model, its impact varies across countries. Based on the SQR and PCSE models in the BRICS nations, however, it appears to have a positive impact on life expectancy. According to the QPNARDL, SQR and PCSE models, wind energy reduces life expectancy in BRICS nations. However, the PNARDL model shows that wind energy has a positive impact on life expectancy in Brazil and China, and a negative impact in India and Russia. Other Renewables, including bioenergy, boost life expectancy in the BRICS nations based on the SQR and PCSE models, while hurting life expectancy based on the QPNARDL and PNARDL models. The results suggest that the impact of renewable energy sources on life expectancy varies between countries and models. These findings have significant implications for policymakers managing the transition to renewable energy; they emphasise the importance of informed, evidence-based decision-making. The study recommends promoting hydropower, wind energy and other renewable energy sources, such as bioenergy, in the BRICS countries to increase life expectancy.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/141639/
Nyiko Worship Hlongwane, Hlalefang Khobai
This study aims to investigate the impact of disaggregated renewable energy sources on life expectancy in the BRICS nations from 1990 to 2023, using linear, non-linear and non-parametric models. This research challenges long-held beliefs about the impact of renewable energy on human health. It reveals the intricate links between different energy sources and life expectancy in the BRICS countries. Based on the QPNARDL results, hydropower is found to harm life expectancy. Based on the PNARDL model, its impact varies across countries. Based on the SQR and PCSE models in the BRICS nations, however, it appears to have a positive impact on life expectancy. According to the QPNARDL, SQR and PCSE models, wind energy reduces life expectancy in BRICS nations. However, the PNARDL model shows that wind energy has a positive impact on life expectancy in Brazil and China, and a negative impact in India and Russia. Other Renewables, including bioenergy, boost life expectancy in the BRICS nations based on the SQR and PCSE models, while hurting life expectancy based on the QPNARDL and PNARDL models. The results suggest that the impact of renewable energy sources on life expectancy varies between countries and models. These findings have significant implications for policymakers managing the transition to renewable energy; they emphasise the importance of informed, evidence-based decision-making. The study recommends promoting hydropower, wind energy and other renewable energy sources, such as bioenergy, in the BRICS countries to increase life expectancy.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/141639/
👍3
Management Concepts in the Paradigm of Spiral Dynamics: a Comparative Analysis of BRICS Countries’ Practices
Svetlana Semyshkina, Aleksandra Rodina
Paradigm shifts in management, reflected in new management concepts, have become common in the modern world. According to some of these concepts, human relationships have taken over the fundamental role in the organization, the corporate structure is becoming more flexible and there is no longer room for tight control. This paper aims to analyze management paradigm shifts in terms of spiral dynamics. It follows from the literature that the generally accepted management concepts can be related to the levels of spiral dynamics. Evidence from the BRICS countries shows that, as the level of spiral dynamics increases, management concepts tend to become more people-oriented or humanistic. The paper contributes to the theory of management; its findings are also intended for practical use in managing change and issues related to organizational culture.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/146809/
The publications in our journal is free of charge for the readers thanks to the support of VTB.
Svetlana Semyshkina, Aleksandra Rodina
Paradigm shifts in management, reflected in new management concepts, have become common in the modern world. According to some of these concepts, human relationships have taken over the fundamental role in the organization, the corporate structure is becoming more flexible and there is no longer room for tight control. This paper aims to analyze management paradigm shifts in terms of spiral dynamics. It follows from the literature that the generally accepted management concepts can be related to the levels of spiral dynamics. Evidence from the BRICS countries shows that, as the level of spiral dynamics increases, management concepts tend to become more people-oriented or humanistic. The paper contributes to the theory of management; its findings are also intended for practical use in managing change and issues related to organizational culture.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/146809/
The publications in our journal is free of charge for the readers thanks to the support of VTB.
BRICS Journal of Economics
Management Concepts in the Paradigm of Spiral Dynamics: a Comparative Analysis of BRICS Countries’ Practices
Paradigm shifts in management, reflected in new management concepts, have become common in the modern world. According to some of these concepts, human relationships have taken over the fundamental role in the organization, the corporate structure is becoming…
👏3
The third issue of BJE in 2025 presents fresh perspectives on sustainability, finance, and development across BRICS and related regions. The collection examines how BRICS countries can unlock their environmental potential, explores the interconnections between green finance, financial development, and industrial growth, and investigates the complex links between natural resource rents, Chinese financing, and sustainable economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. Further studies assess the impact of ESG indicators on the financial performance of Chinese firms, analyze the sectoral structure of foreign direct investment between Russia and China, and offer a multifaceted exploration of agricultural land use, energy access, economic growth, and demographic change as key dimensions of sustainable development.
BRICS Journal of Economics
Trans-borderness in a New Era: Integration, Identities and Cooperation for Sustainable Development
IntroductionIn recent years, the modern world is increasingly characterized as unstable, dynamic, prone to crises: financial and economic , socio-political, socio-cultural, humanitarian, ecological, anthropological[1]. The world architectonics of a New…
👍3
How to capitalize on the environmental potential of the BRICS countries?
Sergey Bobylev, Dmitrii Rakintsev, Alina Zolotukhina
Over the past five years, the BRICS countries have actively worked to develop and implement joint measures to mitigate climate change and adapt to other environmental risks. However, achieving significant results in these areas is impossible without the use of modern economic tools to financially support environmental and climate initiatives. This study examines the challenges and opportunities associated with the development and implementation of economic policies that aim to maximize the environmental potential of the BRICS countries. The paper proposes solutions to create a unified methodology for assessing ecosystem services within the BRICS framework, reveals the potential for creating a joint market and development fund for the BRICS ecosystem services, and describes the most promising economic tools that can be used to attract investments and rationally implement environmental projects.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/162066/
Sergey Bobylev, Dmitrii Rakintsev, Alina Zolotukhina
Over the past five years, the BRICS countries have actively worked to develop and implement joint measures to mitigate climate change and adapt to other environmental risks. However, achieving significant results in these areas is impossible without the use of modern economic tools to financially support environmental and climate initiatives. This study examines the challenges and opportunities associated with the development and implementation of economic policies that aim to maximize the environmental potential of the BRICS countries. The paper proposes solutions to create a unified methodology for assessing ecosystem services within the BRICS framework, reveals the potential for creating a joint market and development fund for the BRICS ecosystem services, and describes the most promising economic tools that can be used to attract investments and rationally implement environmental projects.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/162066/
BRICS Journal of Economics
Management Concepts in the Paradigm of Spiral Dynamics: a Comparative Analysis of BRICS Countries’ Practices
Paradigm shifts in management, reflected in new management concepts, have become common in the modern world. According to some of these concepts, human relationships have taken over the fundamental role in the organization, the corporate structure is becoming…
👏3❤1
Green finance, financial development, and industrial growth: insights from the BRICS economies
Simon Epor, Joseph Olorunfemi Akande
Industrialization is as indispensable to the BRICS economies as they are to the global economy. Given the current focus on sustainable production and improvements in financial services, this study aims to analyze the impact of green finance and financial development on industrial growth, both individually and in interaction. Focusing on the five BRICS member states (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), the study covers the period from 2000 to 2023. Long-run estimates were obtained using panel FMOLS and DOLS estimators, and robustness checks were performed using the PCSE estimator and the Panel Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) causality test. The results of the long-run estimators suggest that the combined effect of green finance and financial development significantly benefits industrial growth in the BRICS countries. So far, green finance has overlooked their industrial sectors but its true flourishing is only possible if it is integrated into financial development policies. The research uses three long-run panel estimators — panel FMOLS, DOLS and PCSE — to confirm and validate its results. The validity of the PCSE estimator is assessed in terms of cross-sectional dependence. The results will inform the industrial, financial, and environmental policies of the BRICS countries.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/149285/
Simon Epor, Joseph Olorunfemi Akande
Industrialization is as indispensable to the BRICS economies as they are to the global economy. Given the current focus on sustainable production and improvements in financial services, this study aims to analyze the impact of green finance and financial development on industrial growth, both individually and in interaction. Focusing on the five BRICS member states (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), the study covers the period from 2000 to 2023. Long-run estimates were obtained using panel FMOLS and DOLS estimators, and robustness checks were performed using the PCSE estimator and the Panel Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) causality test. The results of the long-run estimators suggest that the combined effect of green finance and financial development significantly benefits industrial growth in the BRICS countries. So far, green finance has overlooked their industrial sectors but its true flourishing is only possible if it is integrated into financial development policies. The research uses three long-run panel estimators — panel FMOLS, DOLS and PCSE — to confirm and validate its results. The validity of the PCSE estimator is assessed in terms of cross-sectional dependence. The results will inform the industrial, financial, and environmental policies of the BRICS countries.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/149285/
👏4
Natural Resource Rents, Chinese Financing and Sustainable Economic Growth nexus in sub-Saharan Africa
Benjamin Bensam Sambiri, Noah Cheruiyot Mutai, Onyekachi Osisiogu
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has abundant natural resources and attracts substantial investment, especially from China, but sustainable growth remains limited. This study examines the persistent disconnect between resource wealth, foreign financing, and long-term economic performance in the region. Using 20 years of panel data from 31 SSA countries, we estimate seven econometric models — including fixed effects, dynamic panels, and instrumental variables (IV) — to assess the long-run impact of natural resource rents, Chinese investment, trade flows and foreign direct investment (FDI) on GDP growth.
Exports are consistently associated with stronger economic growth. By contrast, Chinese investment does not show a robust effect across specifications. Natural resource rents have a weak or no correlation with growth, but become significant in the IV model, suggesting that their impact is mediated by institutional quality. Imports are negatively or insignificantly associated with growth until endogeneity is addressed, after which their effect turns positive indicating the importance of trade efficiency. FDI consistently correlates with lower growth, pointing to problems such as capital flight or extractive investment practices.
This study challenges the assumption that Chinese finance and resource abundance are driving development in SSA. The findings highlight the critical role of effective governance, transparent resource management, and coherent trade and investment policies. Policymakers need to align external finance and natural resource use with institutional reforms to promote sustainable growth.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/145573/
Benjamin Bensam Sambiri, Noah Cheruiyot Mutai, Onyekachi Osisiogu
Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has abundant natural resources and attracts substantial investment, especially from China, but sustainable growth remains limited. This study examines the persistent disconnect between resource wealth, foreign financing, and long-term economic performance in the region. Using 20 years of panel data from 31 SSA countries, we estimate seven econometric models — including fixed effects, dynamic panels, and instrumental variables (IV) — to assess the long-run impact of natural resource rents, Chinese investment, trade flows and foreign direct investment (FDI) on GDP growth.
Exports are consistently associated with stronger economic growth. By contrast, Chinese investment does not show a robust effect across specifications. Natural resource rents have a weak or no correlation with growth, but become significant in the IV model, suggesting that their impact is mediated by institutional quality. Imports are negatively or insignificantly associated with growth until endogeneity is addressed, after which their effect turns positive indicating the importance of trade efficiency. FDI consistently correlates with lower growth, pointing to problems such as capital flight or extractive investment practices.
This study challenges the assumption that Chinese finance and resource abundance are driving development in SSA. The findings highlight the critical role of effective governance, transparent resource management, and coherent trade and investment policies. Policymakers need to align external finance and natural resource use with institutional reforms to promote sustainable growth.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/145573/
👍2
The Impact of ESG Indicators on Corporate Financial Performance: Evidence from Chinese Companies
Yushi Zhang
As key actors in China’s transition to a green economy, companies are aligning their business strategies with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) goals. However, there is still a lack of empirical evidence on how ESG performance impacts financial outcomes in emerging markets. This study seeks to fill this gap by investigating the relationship between ESG indicators and corporate financial performance using a panel dataset of Chinese A-share companies, listed on Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, over the period from 2013 to 2022.
Employing a two-way fixed-effects panel regression model, the analysis confirms a significant positive association between ESG performance and financial outcomes at the firm level. Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis reveals that this positive impact is more pronounced among NSOEs than SOEs. This differential impact is attributed to NSOEs’ greater operational flexibility and responsiveness to market conditions in implementing ESG strategies.
The findings contribute to the growing body of literature on ESG, offering a large sample of context-specific evidence from China and highlighting ownership structure as a critical moderating factor. These results have practical implications for policymakers and investors seeking to promote sustainable economic growth through ESG-based practices in emerging markets.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/153844/
Yushi Zhang
As key actors in China’s transition to a green economy, companies are aligning their business strategies with environmental, social, and governance (ESG) goals. However, there is still a lack of empirical evidence on how ESG performance impacts financial outcomes in emerging markets. This study seeks to fill this gap by investigating the relationship between ESG indicators and corporate financial performance using a panel dataset of Chinese A-share companies, listed on Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, over the period from 2013 to 2022.
Employing a two-way fixed-effects panel regression model, the analysis confirms a significant positive association between ESG performance and financial outcomes at the firm level. Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis reveals that this positive impact is more pronounced among NSOEs than SOEs. This differential impact is attributed to NSOEs’ greater operational flexibility and responsiveness to market conditions in implementing ESG strategies.
The findings contribute to the growing body of literature on ESG, offering a large sample of context-specific evidence from China and highlighting ownership structure as a critical moderating factor. These results have practical implications for policymakers and investors seeking to promote sustainable economic growth through ESG-based practices in emerging markets.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/153844/
🔥3
Analysis of the sectoral structure of foreign direct investment between the Russian federation and the People’s Republic of China
Vsevolod Zhirikov
The study analyzes the transformation of the sectoral structure of foreign direct investment between Russia and China from 2014 to 2024 in the context of the «Turning to the East» policy and the changing dynamics of the global geopolitical situation. Using a comprehensive methodological approach, it carries out statistical analysis of the dynamic series of investment flows, structural analysis of the sectoral distribution of investment and qualitative analysis of institutional changes in investment cooperation. The empirical base consists of official statistical data, reports from expert analysis centres and materials provided by relevant government agencies in both countries. The results reveal the following dramatic shifts in the structure of Chinese FDI in the Russian economy: the shares of the extractive and agricultural sectors grew from $796.0 to $6215.3 million and from $2099.7 to $3256.4 million, respectively, while the share of manufacturing fell from 30% to 12.2%. A three-tier investment structure has emerged, dominated by the natural resources sector (over 40%). There has been a 54-fold increase in investment in high-tech sectors, although their share remains modest. The paper argues that the structural changes in investment cooperation were caused, first, by the Western sanctions against Russia after 2014, second, by China’s growing need for Russian energy resources and raw materials and, third, by the desire of Chinese investors to minimize risks by working with influential Russian elites. The cautious attitude of Chinese investors towards Russia’s high-tech sectors is explained by the risks of secondary sanctions, the technological gap between the countries and institutional barriers in Russia. Key obstacles include weak transport and logistics infrastructure in the Russian Far East, an opaque business climate, and the two countries’ diverging investment priorities. A new interaction model is emerging, prioritizing raw materials, agribusiness, and state-backed projects, while manufacturing is becoming less attractive.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/145598/
Vsevolod Zhirikov
The study analyzes the transformation of the sectoral structure of foreign direct investment between Russia and China from 2014 to 2024 in the context of the «Turning to the East» policy and the changing dynamics of the global geopolitical situation. Using a comprehensive methodological approach, it carries out statistical analysis of the dynamic series of investment flows, structural analysis of the sectoral distribution of investment and qualitative analysis of institutional changes in investment cooperation. The empirical base consists of official statistical data, reports from expert analysis centres and materials provided by relevant government agencies in both countries. The results reveal the following dramatic shifts in the structure of Chinese FDI in the Russian economy: the shares of the extractive and agricultural sectors grew from $796.0 to $6215.3 million and from $2099.7 to $3256.4 million, respectively, while the share of manufacturing fell from 30% to 12.2%. A three-tier investment structure has emerged, dominated by the natural resources sector (over 40%). There has been a 54-fold increase in investment in high-tech sectors, although their share remains modest. The paper argues that the structural changes in investment cooperation were caused, first, by the Western sanctions against Russia after 2014, second, by China’s growing need for Russian energy resources and raw materials and, third, by the desire of Chinese investors to minimize risks by working with influential Russian elites. The cautious attitude of Chinese investors towards Russia’s high-tech sectors is explained by the risks of secondary sanctions, the technological gap between the countries and institutional barriers in Russia. Key obstacles include weak transport and logistics infrastructure in the Russian Far East, an opaque business climate, and the two countries’ diverging investment priorities. A new interaction model is emerging, prioritizing raw materials, agribusiness, and state-backed projects, while manufacturing is becoming less attractive.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/145598/
🔥3❤2
A Multifaceted Analysis of Agricultural and Arable Land Use, Electricity Access, Economic Growth, and Demographic Trends Across Regions: Implications for Sustainable Development
Tryson Yangailo
This study examines the links between agricultural and arable land use, access to electricity, economic growth, and demographic trends in several global regions, including sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Central Europe and the Baltic States, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East and North Africa. The study hypothesizes that access to electricity moderates the relationship between agricultural land use, economic growth, and demographic trends, with regional disparities driven by differences in initial conditions such as infrastructure development and population dynamics. Using data from 2000 to 2022 from the World Bank database and Jamovi software, the analysis employs descriptive statistics, correlation, regression, moderation analysis, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) to explore regional disparities and identify challenges and opportunities for sustainable development. The results reveal significant regional disparities in electricity access, with regions such as Eastern and Southern Africa (31.8%) and sub-Saharan Africa (36.9%) facing significant electrification challenges compared to the near-universal access in Europe and Central Asia. Agricultural land use is a key determinant of economic stability, with South Asia having the highest percentage of agricultural land (56.7%), a pattern consistent with its agrarian economy. In contrast, the Middle East and North Africa faces significant constraints due to limited arable land (4.75%) and environmental challenges. The study also finds that regions such as Central Europe and the Baltics and East Asia and the Pacific have advanced agricultural practices and higher rates of urbanization, with less reliance on agriculture for economic stability. In addition, population growth shows a strong negative correlation with access to electricity (r = -0.834, p < 0.001), reflecting the demographic transition in developed countries where improvements in infrastructure coincide with lower fertility rates. Moderation analysis shows that in regions with low electricity access, such as sub-Saharan Africa, rapid population growth negatively affects GDP growth, but this effect is moderated by improvements in electricity access. Based on these findings, the study offers targeted recommendations for improving infrastructure, promoting sustainable agriculture, investing in human capital, and advancing inclusive urbanization strategies. These findings provide actionable guidance for policymakers seeking to address infrastructure deficits, reduce socioeconomic disparities, and overcome environmental constraints to achieve sustainable global development.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/146851/
Tryson Yangailo
This study examines the links between agricultural and arable land use, access to electricity, economic growth, and demographic trends in several global regions, including sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, East Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Central Asia, Central Europe and the Baltic States, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the Middle East and North Africa. The study hypothesizes that access to electricity moderates the relationship between agricultural land use, economic growth, and demographic trends, with regional disparities driven by differences in initial conditions such as infrastructure development and population dynamics. Using data from 2000 to 2022 from the World Bank database and Jamovi software, the analysis employs descriptive statistics, correlation, regression, moderation analysis, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) to explore regional disparities and identify challenges and opportunities for sustainable development. The results reveal significant regional disparities in electricity access, with regions such as Eastern and Southern Africa (31.8%) and sub-Saharan Africa (36.9%) facing significant electrification challenges compared to the near-universal access in Europe and Central Asia. Agricultural land use is a key determinant of economic stability, with South Asia having the highest percentage of agricultural land (56.7%), a pattern consistent with its agrarian economy. In contrast, the Middle East and North Africa faces significant constraints due to limited arable land (4.75%) and environmental challenges. The study also finds that regions such as Central Europe and the Baltics and East Asia and the Pacific have advanced agricultural practices and higher rates of urbanization, with less reliance on agriculture for economic stability. In addition, population growth shows a strong negative correlation with access to electricity (r = -0.834, p < 0.001), reflecting the demographic transition in developed countries where improvements in infrastructure coincide with lower fertility rates. Moderation analysis shows that in regions with low electricity access, such as sub-Saharan Africa, rapid population growth negatively affects GDP growth, but this effect is moderated by improvements in electricity access. Based on these findings, the study offers targeted recommendations for improving infrastructure, promoting sustainable agriculture, investing in human capital, and advancing inclusive urbanization strategies. These findings provide actionable guidance for policymakers seeking to address infrastructure deficits, reduce socioeconomic disparities, and overcome environmental constraints to achieve sustainable global development.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/146851/
👏3
The fourth issue of BJE in 2025 presents research on trade, finance, and macroeconomic policy challenges in the BRICS countries and other emerging economies. The issue opens with an analysis of pharmaceutical trade within the expanded BRICS10 group, highlighting structural asymmetries, limited intra-bloc integration, and the potential for strengthening South–South cooperation. Several articles focus on financial stability and macroeconomic sustainability. They examine the effects of financial sector reforms in Sub-Saharan Africa, the role of natural resources and inflation in economic stability, and Uganda’s persistent debt-to-pay-debt cycle, emphasizing the need for prudent fiscal and debt management. The issue also addresses international integration and policy coordination, exploring BRIC participation in global value chains and assessing prospects for monetary and financial convergence within BRICS. Together, the contributions provide concise insights into key trade-offs shaping the future economic development of BRICS and related economies.
The publications in our journal is free of charge for the readers thanks to the support of VTB.
The publications in our journal is free of charge for the readers thanks to the support of VTB.
BRICS Journal of Economics
BRICS Journal of Economics 6
BRICS Journal of Economics is an international peer-reviewed, open access journal, providing a platform for the dissemination of original research on contemporary economic trends in middle-income developing countries. The journal publishes scientific articles…
🔥2
Pharmaceutical products trade dynamics of BRICS (BRICS10): Global positioning, intra-bloc trade, and future policy directions
Fenghui Fan, Natalia Grigorieva
This study examines pharmaceutical trade dynamics within the expanded BRICS10 grouping, comprising the original BRICS5 members (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and five countries that joined in 2024–2025: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Indonesia (these five hereafter referred to as “BRICS Newcomers,” abbreviated as “Newcomers”). The 10 countries are collectively referred to as “BRICS10.” Focusing on 2012–2023, the study explores whether trade patterns within BRICS5, among Newcomers, between the two groups, and across BRICS10 reveal structural asymmetries or early integration signals.
A 12-year country-level panel was built using United Nations Comtrade HS Code 30 data on pharmaceutical products. Missing values for Iran and Russia were filled using reclassified mirror statistics. Key indicators included compound annual growth rates (CAGR), trade balances, intra- and inter-group trade shares, and 1 080 dyad-level Trade Intensity Index (TII) scores. Data processing and visualization were conducted using R.
In 2023, BRICS10 accounted for 9.7% of global pharmaceutical imports and 4.7% of exports. Intra-bloc trade was limited and uneven: 64.4% of the dyads were under-traded, with a TII of less than 1, and only 3.1% reached very high intensity (TII ≥ 15). India was the sole net exporter, while most members remained dependent on imports. Trade spikes driven by the pandemic were short-lived.
This is the first time-series analysis of pharmaceutical trade between BRICS10 countries at the dyad level. It reveals structural imbalances and under-trading on a large scale, providing new evidence to support policies aimed at promoting regional pharmaceutical integration and enhancing health system resilience through South–South cooperation.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/153294/
Fenghui Fan, Natalia Grigorieva
This study examines pharmaceutical trade dynamics within the expanded BRICS10 grouping, comprising the original BRICS5 members (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and five countries that joined in 2024–2025: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Indonesia (these five hereafter referred to as “BRICS Newcomers,” abbreviated as “Newcomers”). The 10 countries are collectively referred to as “BRICS10.” Focusing on 2012–2023, the study explores whether trade patterns within BRICS5, among Newcomers, between the two groups, and across BRICS10 reveal structural asymmetries or early integration signals.
A 12-year country-level panel was built using United Nations Comtrade HS Code 30 data on pharmaceutical products. Missing values for Iran and Russia were filled using reclassified mirror statistics. Key indicators included compound annual growth rates (CAGR), trade balances, intra- and inter-group trade shares, and 1 080 dyad-level Trade Intensity Index (TII) scores. Data processing and visualization were conducted using R.
In 2023, BRICS10 accounted for 9.7% of global pharmaceutical imports and 4.7% of exports. Intra-bloc trade was limited and uneven: 64.4% of the dyads were under-traded, with a TII of less than 1, and only 3.1% reached very high intensity (TII ≥ 15). India was the sole net exporter, while most members remained dependent on imports. Trade spikes driven by the pandemic were short-lived.
This is the first time-series analysis of pharmaceutical trade between BRICS10 countries at the dyad level. It reveals structural imbalances and under-trading on a large scale, providing new evidence to support policies aimed at promoting regional pharmaceutical integration and enhancing health system resilience through South–South cooperation.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/153294/
👍1
Modelling Financial Sector Reform and Resource Dependence Effects on Macroeconomic Stability In SSA: Re-Enacting Africa’s Quest for Long-Term Development
Oluwafemi Adeboje, Frank Ogbeide, Isiaka Akande Raifu
Abstract
This paper examines the influence of financial sector reform on macroeconomic stability in 14 SSA countries by employing a traditional panel, dynamic panel framework, and causality tests on data from 2000 to 2021. It explores whether income groupings of the sampled countries in line with the World Bank classification matter for the outcomes of the analysis. The results suggest that financial reform policies can both induce and prevent economic instability. They increase instability in the lower-middle and upper-middle-income countries, as seen in the overall estimated dynamic panel models, but they reduce it in low-income economies. The static panel models produced similar results. It has also been shown that the rent from natural resources had uniformly damaging effects on the macroeconomic stability of all income groups in SSA, effectively confirming the “resource curse” thesis. Yet, the findings of the panel as a whole contradicted this, suggesting that revenue from natural resources can effectively play a role in stabilizing macroeconomic conditions. The results also suggest the existence of what can be called “a human capital-misery trap”, in which higher human capital development can lead to macroeconomic instability. Inflation was found to have a detrimental effect, and the impact of government interventions appeared to be mixed. This paper emphasizes the need for robust financial reforms and comprehensive policy measures in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), aiming to enhance the effectiveness, competitiveness, and stability of the financial sector and the broader economic landscape, which will require prudent management of natural resources.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/162459/
Oluwafemi Adeboje, Frank Ogbeide, Isiaka Akande Raifu
Abstract
This paper examines the influence of financial sector reform on macroeconomic stability in 14 SSA countries by employing a traditional panel, dynamic panel framework, and causality tests on data from 2000 to 2021. It explores whether income groupings of the sampled countries in line with the World Bank classification matter for the outcomes of the analysis. The results suggest that financial reform policies can both induce and prevent economic instability. They increase instability in the lower-middle and upper-middle-income countries, as seen in the overall estimated dynamic panel models, but they reduce it in low-income economies. The static panel models produced similar results. It has also been shown that the rent from natural resources had uniformly damaging effects on the macroeconomic stability of all income groups in SSA, effectively confirming the “resource curse” thesis. Yet, the findings of the panel as a whole contradicted this, suggesting that revenue from natural resources can effectively play a role in stabilizing macroeconomic conditions. The results also suggest the existence of what can be called “a human capital-misery trap”, in which higher human capital development can lead to macroeconomic instability. Inflation was found to have a detrimental effect, and the impact of government interventions appeared to be mixed. This paper emphasizes the need for robust financial reforms and comprehensive policy measures in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), aiming to enhance the effectiveness, competitiveness, and stability of the financial sector and the broader economic landscape, which will require prudent management of natural resources.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/162459/
BRICS Journal of Economics
Modelling Financial Sector Reform and Resource Dependence Effects on Macroeconomic Stability In SSA: Re-Enacting Africa’s Quest…
This paper examines the influence of financial sector reform on macroeconomic stability in 14 SSA countries by employing a traditional panel, dynamic panel framework, and causality tests on data from 2000 to 2021. It explores whether income groupings of the…
👍1
Analyzing Integration of BRIC into GVCs: A Value-Added Trade Perspective
José Firmino de Sousa Filho, Gervásio Ferreira dos Santos, Luiz Carlos de Santana Ribeiro, Rodrigo Barbosa de Cerqueira
Abstract
This paper examines the involvement of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) in the global value chains (GVCs) between 2000 and 2014. It focuses on domestic value-added exports and vertical specialization. We use WIOD tables to assess the position of these countries in GVCs and a decomposition of their trade in terms of value added. China exhibits substantial growth in all indicators, whereas the other countries’ results appear to be mixed. The study also considers the economies of Mexico and South Korea, highlighting Mexico’s declining participation in GVCs in contrast to the steady growth of South Korea’s involvement. To ensure sustained long-term economic growth, the BRICS countries and other emerging economies should create a common growth agenda and increase their participation in global value chains. The paper provides insights into the dynamics of trade and vertical specialization and thus contributes to better understanding of economic relations between the BRICS countries and other emerging economies.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/154692/
José Firmino de Sousa Filho, Gervásio Ferreira dos Santos, Luiz Carlos de Santana Ribeiro, Rodrigo Barbosa de Cerqueira
Abstract
This paper examines the involvement of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) in the global value chains (GVCs) between 2000 and 2014. It focuses on domestic value-added exports and vertical specialization. We use WIOD tables to assess the position of these countries in GVCs and a decomposition of their trade in terms of value added. China exhibits substantial growth in all indicators, whereas the other countries’ results appear to be mixed. The study also considers the economies of Mexico and South Korea, highlighting Mexico’s declining participation in GVCs in contrast to the steady growth of South Korea’s involvement. To ensure sustained long-term economic growth, the BRICS countries and other emerging economies should create a common growth agenda and increase their participation in global value chains. The paper provides insights into the dynamics of trade and vertical specialization and thus contributes to better understanding of economic relations between the BRICS countries and other emerging economies.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/154692/
🔥1
Debt-to-pay-debt syndrome in Uganda
Patrick Nahabwe
This study investigates debt-to-pay-debt syndrome in Uganda from 1980 to 2022 using a quantitative approach with ARIMA modelling to evaluate public debt sustainability. Balanced time series data from the World Bank is analysed with public debt (% of GDP) as the dependent variable, incorporating autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) components as independent variables. Parameter estimation is conducted using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), with diagnostic tests ensuring model robustness. Results show that the AR(1) coefficient (0.350489), is positive and statistically significant, meaning that 35% of the current year’s debt is used to service the previous year’s debt. This finding confirms the persistence of the debt-to-pay-debt cycle in Uganda. The estimated ARIMA (1, 1, 11) model is both covariance stationary and invertible, making it reliable for forecasting public debt trends over the next decade. Forecasts suggest that the debt-to-pay-debt pattern will continue unless corrective measures are taken. The study recommends implementing comprehensive debt management policies to reduce reliance on new borrowing. This includes enforcing stricter fiscal rules and promoting revenue diversification through emerging sectors such as digital economies, agricultural value addition, mineral resources, and oil and gas.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/144680/
Patrick Nahabwe
This study investigates debt-to-pay-debt syndrome in Uganda from 1980 to 2022 using a quantitative approach with ARIMA modelling to evaluate public debt sustainability. Balanced time series data from the World Bank is analysed with public debt (% of GDP) as the dependent variable, incorporating autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) components as independent variables. Parameter estimation is conducted using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), with diagnostic tests ensuring model robustness. Results show that the AR(1) coefficient (0.350489), is positive and statistically significant, meaning that 35% of the current year’s debt is used to service the previous year’s debt. This finding confirms the persistence of the debt-to-pay-debt cycle in Uganda. The estimated ARIMA (1, 1, 11) model is both covariance stationary and invertible, making it reliable for forecasting public debt trends over the next decade. Forecasts suggest that the debt-to-pay-debt pattern will continue unless corrective measures are taken. The study recommends implementing comprehensive debt management policies to reduce reliance on new borrowing. This includes enforcing stricter fiscal rules and promoting revenue diversification through emerging sectors such as digital economies, agricultural value addition, mineral resources, and oil and gas.
Read the full article on our journal's website
https://brics-econ.arphahub.com/article/144680/
🔥1