+8.6% on the upgrade lmaoooo. Damn are shorts capitulating? hahaha, maybe they have the same thought w/more upgrades coming post earnings. Jan 30th, and unwinding ahead of time

Great Write Up on BTRFLY - https://degensensei.substack.com/p/the-redacted-thesis-metamorphosis

yup someone's there providing support, noting this

. bumping this for BTRFLY, even the volume driving in is similar atm

pendle keeps pendling...gg

Forgot about this - https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2024/01/18/frax-finances-layer-2-fraxtal-to-debut-in-february-founder/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=onecryptofeed&utm_campaign=headlines

they're still there

Probably has to do with this. Jan 5th, 3rd trading day of the year:

https://apnews.com/article/inflation-europe-interest-rate-cuts-f44648c6a68657bd2c91aba72389ec22


Overall I’ve noticed the macro regime shifted back to rates dominating correlations / volatility between asset classes since the year started.

Expectations the pace of cuts were really excessive coming into the start of the year (6cuts by June in the US was baked into bond prices).

Combination of hotter economic data, slightly higher CPI print (although was really negligible), and Fed Reserve jawboning expectations down has been leading to the market re-adjust it’s outlook on rate cuts which has re-tightened the correlation between stocks/crypto. It’s also brought back the type of asset class volatility we experienced in 2022 and 1H23, especially since markets have lacked news/catalysts for the most part.

Earnings start this week, hopefully most results come in as higher than expected growth leading a shift back to a bottom-up market (fundamentals like earnings growth) being the dominant regime vs rates being the dominating factor. It would also likely cause the strengthening correlation between asset classes to weaken again.

I think we’re heading back there though. Possible clues can be seen with semi’s starting to decouple from tech as it’s becoming clear that inventory adjustment period has mostly been worked through which should start to be reflected in earnings for companies exposed to inflecting end markets

Europe is still being a negative Nancy tho. Maybe they need some sun lol. Their companies growth prospects also aren’t as good as the US which could be impacting the way they’re making buy/sell decisions.

Once Europe leaves lmaooo

Good Lord, SMCI +36% on the day after releasing peliminary earnings results, full earnings Jan 31st.

AMD +7% with TSMC confirmation of HPC QoQ Rev Acceleration + SMCI results

Advantest +8.6%, reasons similar to AMD. Japanese company, worlds largest Automated Test Equipment maker

Regardless of macro, it's an analyst hat wearing market vs. Portfolio Manager hat market since Oct. 2022. Cut the noise, negative outlooks on macro leads to earnings surprises and offsides positioning. The more negative/underestimated the higher the torque. Stories in the numbers

I've outlined before on the reasons why ticker bitcoin needed to go lower bc it was not nearly cleansed enough. Turns out that thought is looking like it was the correct view. To be honest, I think it can still go even lower from here before beginning it's real consolidation period where supply will start to redistribute from whales to the hardcore believers. There will be more time capitulation for ticker bitcoin and still thinks it's performance will be very disappointing for those making the assumption that it's the king while they themselves are just traders using it as eth beta - ironically they are the problem that will cause the underperformance that leads to their own disappointment

Ticker bitcoin listing on bybit - saved the coin honestly, lower was likely.

https://x.com/RealHPOS10I/status/1748818633072013629?s=20

Some Notes Part1:

Equities bottomed Oct 2022 when the US Gov turned on the Fiscal Printer + there was a lot of liquidity put into the system through BTFD program and then Social Security Being based on Previous Year CPI. It's strange years because they coincided with the baby boomer gen accelerating retirement, esp now that yields aren't 0. Their social security payments during 2022 where based on 2021 CPI data which was peak, so when they would get their payments in a declining interest rate environment they "felt richer" than normal and would spend (i.e. All the larps saying how are consumers so strong?)

tldr; ^ those factors + the fiscal printer created a big liquidity injection which offset tightening and boosted earnings growth

Crypto also benefitted from this since global liq has been on the rise due to fiscal. What really market the start of the impulse move of BTC was China announcing a large fiscal stimulus plan - https://x.com/BlueLightCapit1/status/1717010694866874873?s=20.

I also think a lot underestimate the liquidity contribution Asia has to crypto as well, so it caught alot of people off guard - https://x.com/BlueLightCapit1/status/1716491159353151522?s=20.

Although Eth and L1's like solana did well, the BRC20 Eco system and ordinals had some of the largest ROI's out there and the people I talk to that were really early to this predominantly from asia (coincidence? lol).

Some Notes Part 2:

Looking forward Regarding ETH:

i think theres to much noise surrounding Solana's bottom to peak performance when ironically Sol peaked out when it's drawdown from 2021 cycle peak was = to eth's drawdown from 2021 peak, so really it was a giant mean reversion trade. All old L1's had the opportunity to compete in that time, but the only one that made it to match Eth's 50% drawdown from peak was solana. All that could just be the market deciding that from the old guard of L1's last cycle, Solana will make it forward, scrap everything else (waste of mental energy to pay attn to them). https://x.com/BlueLightCapit1/status/1747318848297001118?s=20

February always a good month for crypto (18/20 months green) usually in the back half. For Eth we've already seen DeFi leading the way and new pnozi's popping up. On Solana, liquidity is dry and being recycled vs. new liq inputs coming in. You can tell this by new runners nor reaching last lead runners highs, new runners creating liq black holes, and deep in the new launch trenches things top out at lower and lower market caps.

Liq drying on solana, signs of liq re-entering eth, seasonality, and the upcoming blast unlocks can be a big Tailwind for Eth imho. Blast is also key, bc whales can't really play on Solana, LP's there aren't thick enough for it to be worth their time