BGC Priv Journal
this is going to be so annoying. We wanted this gay etf. We deserve this CNBC analysis is going to be comical tho
Noting this -
That was a big order at support. Wonder if that was a limit buy at support by a big MM or a market order. Either way thats huge notable demand creating that type of divergence
Eth Price: $2,498
That was a big order at support. Wonder if that was a limit buy at support by a big MM or a market order. Either way thats huge notable demand creating that type of divergence
Eth Price: $2,498
AMD up 5.7% on another analyst upgrade. More to come as the sell-side chase price. Thesis over the year in the making, crazy how many people still doubt Lisa and management's product execution. People also clearly short and are unwinding.
$12 from ATH's - Vivek from BofA is coping, he'll capitulate and raise PT to $200 based on more color of inflection in DC segment and Mi300 order numbers 1Q'24 Jan 30. Can't wait, dude was such a dousche corning management with impossible 1-sided questions on every call along with other analysts on the street creating negative investor sentiment
We buy negative investor sentiment, the story's in the numbers.
$12 from ATH's - Vivek from BofA is coping, he'll capitulate and raise PT to $200 based on more color of inflection in DC segment and Mi300 order numbers 1Q'24 Jan 30. Can't wait, dude was such a dousche corning management with impossible 1-sided questions on every call along with other analysts on the street creating negative investor sentiment
We buy negative investor sentiment, the story's in the numbers.
❤1
BGC Priv Journal
AMD up 5.7% on another analyst upgrade. More to come as the sell-side chase price. Thesis over the year in the making, crazy how many people still doubt Lisa and management's product execution. People also clearly short and are unwinding. $12 from ATH's …
+8.6% on the upgrade lmaoooo. Damn are shorts capitulating? hahaha, maybe they have the same thought w/more upgrades coming post earnings. Jan 30th, and unwinding ahead of time
Fed Waller - do more boolish talk but not too boolish plz (can't have the market back track rate cut expectations)
"The Economy is aggressively just average and mid" would be perfect. Someone call the team and tell him
"The Economy is aggressively just average and mid" would be perfect. Someone call the team and tell him
🔥1
BGC Priv Journal
zoomed out a bit - there's definitely someone here
yup someone's there providing support, noting this
BGC Priv Journal
Interesting - similar base pattern with $BTRFLY and $TAO. Similar situation as well with most of the supply being staked causing supply shocks are demand comes in BTRFLY's undervalued/underappreciated as is is with their recent release of pxETH and Dinero.…
. bumping this for BTRFLY, even the volume driving in is similar atm
Forgot about this - https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2024/01/18/frax-finances-layer-2-fraxtal-to-debut-in-february-founder/?utm_medium=social&utm_source=onecryptofeed&utm_campaign=headlines
CoinDesk
Frax Finance's Layer 2 Fraxtal to Debut in February: Founder
Kazemian expects Fraxtal to debut with a bang, attracting at least several hundred million dollars worth of crypto assets in the first month.
Is there something brewing in Europe?
Since the start of the year, every single day they’ve been selling into their market close - stocks and crypto (11am-11:30am EST).
It’s annoying af lol
Since the start of the year, every single day they’ve been selling into their market close - stocks and crypto (11am-11:30am EST).
It’s annoying af lol
BGC Priv Journal
Is there something brewing in Europe? Since the start of the year, every single day they’ve been selling into their market close - stocks and crypto (11am-11:30am EST). It’s annoying af lol
Probably has to do with this. Jan 5th, 3rd trading day of the year:
https://apnews.com/article/inflation-europe-interest-rate-cuts-f44648c6a68657bd2c91aba72389ec22
Overall I’ve noticed the macro regime shifted back to rates dominating correlations / volatility between asset classes since the year started.
Expectations the pace of cuts were really excessive coming into the start of the year (6cuts by June in the US was baked into bond prices).
Combination of hotter economic data, slightly higher CPI print (although was really negligible), and Fed Reserve jawboning expectations down has been leading to the market re-adjust it’s outlook on rate cuts which has re-tightened the correlation between stocks/crypto. It’s also brought back the type of asset class volatility we experienced in 2022 and 1H23, especially since markets have lacked news/catalysts for the most part.
Earnings start this week, hopefully most results come in as higher than expected growth leading a shift back to a bottom-up market (fundamentals like earnings growth) being the dominant regime vs rates being the dominating factor. It would also likely cause the strengthening correlation between asset classes to weaken again.
I think we’re heading back there though. Possible clues can be seen with semi’s starting to decouple from tech as it’s becoming clear that inventory adjustment period has mostly been worked through which should start to be reflected in earnings for companies exposed to inflecting end markets
Europe is still being a negative Nancy tho. Maybe they need some sun lol. Their companies growth prospects also aren’t as good as the US which could be impacting the way they’re making buy/sell decisions.
https://apnews.com/article/inflation-europe-interest-rate-cuts-f44648c6a68657bd2c91aba72389ec22
Overall I’ve noticed the macro regime shifted back to rates dominating correlations / volatility between asset classes since the year started.
Expectations the pace of cuts were really excessive coming into the start of the year (6cuts by June in the US was baked into bond prices).
Combination of hotter economic data, slightly higher CPI print (although was really negligible), and Fed Reserve jawboning expectations down has been leading to the market re-adjust it’s outlook on rate cuts which has re-tightened the correlation between stocks/crypto. It’s also brought back the type of asset class volatility we experienced in 2022 and 1H23, especially since markets have lacked news/catalysts for the most part.
Earnings start this week, hopefully most results come in as higher than expected growth leading a shift back to a bottom-up market (fundamentals like earnings growth) being the dominant regime vs rates being the dominating factor. It would also likely cause the strengthening correlation between asset classes to weaken again.
I think we’re heading back there though. Possible clues can be seen with semi’s starting to decouple from tech as it’s becoming clear that inventory adjustment period has mostly been worked through which should start to be reflected in earnings for companies exposed to inflecting end markets
Europe is still being a negative Nancy tho. Maybe they need some sun lol. Their companies growth prospects also aren’t as good as the US which could be impacting the way they’re making buy/sell decisions.
AP News
Europe's inflation is up after months of decline. Could it delay interest rate cuts?
Inflation is on the rebound in Europe. The European Union's statistics agency said Friday that consumer prices rose 2.9% on a yearly basis in December.
BGC Priv Journal
Probably has to do with this. Jan 5th, 3rd trading day of the year: https://apnews.com/article/inflation-europe-interest-rate-cuts-f44648c6a68657bd2c91aba72389ec22 Overall I’ve noticed the macro regime shifted back to rates dominating correlations / volatility…
Once Europe leaves lmaooo
Good Lord, SMCI +36% on the day after releasing peliminary earnings results, full earnings Jan 31st.
AMD +7% with TSMC confirmation of HPC QoQ Rev Acceleration + SMCI results
Advantest +8.6%, reasons similar to AMD. Japanese company, worlds largest Automated Test Equipment maker
Regardless of macro, it's an analyst hat wearing market vs. Portfolio Manager hat market since Oct. 2022. Cut the noise, negative outlooks on macro leads to earnings surprises and offsides positioning. The more negative/underestimated the higher the torque. Stories in the numbers
AMD +7% with TSMC confirmation of HPC QoQ Rev Acceleration + SMCI results
Advantest +8.6%, reasons similar to AMD. Japanese company, worlds largest Automated Test Equipment maker
Regardless of macro, it's an analyst hat wearing market vs. Portfolio Manager hat market since Oct. 2022. Cut the noise, negative outlooks on macro leads to earnings surprises and offsides positioning. The more negative/underestimated the higher the torque. Stories in the numbers
I've outlined before on the reasons why ticker bitcoin needed to go lower bc it was not nearly cleansed enough. Turns out that thought is looking like it was the correct view. To be honest, I think it can still go even lower from here before beginning it's real consolidation period where supply will start to redistribute from whales to the hardcore believers. There will be more time capitulation for ticker bitcoin and still thinks it's performance will be very disappointing for those making the assumption that it's the king while they themselves are just traders using it as eth beta - ironically they are the problem that will cause the underperformance that leads to their own disappointment
BGC Priv Journal
I've outlined before on the reasons why ticker bitcoin needed to go lower bc it was not nearly cleansed enough. Turns out that thought is looking like it was the correct view. To be honest, I think it can still go even lower from here before beginning it's…
SPX on the other hand is much more cleansed. Migration to sol pump sped up the re-distribution process. Holding here will likely be the catalyst that decouples SPX from ticker bitcoin for good.
Chart 2: What the Sidelined Money Is Waiting For, But Will Likely not Happen - I have a gut feeling there is a lot of sidelined $ waiting for the coin to follow ticker bitcoins path. Unlike those deep in the trenches paying close attn to the difference between the two projects, most people just chart watch without accounting for how supply re-distribution plays a role in painting the PA.
From an unbiased perspective this is a very good accumulation period to front run the market for the people paying attention.
Chart 2: What the Sidelined Money Is Waiting For, But Will Likely not Happen - I have a gut feeling there is a lot of sidelined $ waiting for the coin to follow ticker bitcoins path. Unlike those deep in the trenches paying close attn to the difference between the two projects, most people just chart watch without accounting for how supply re-distribution plays a role in painting the PA.
From an unbiased perspective this is a very good accumulation period to front run the market for the people paying attention.
❤3