Blur - Looks reallly really interesting here. I've struggled with midcurving
Rational thought: The token is useless gov token with 0 value
However,
Left curve in me: if OS launched a token last cycle what would that peak valuation have been?
Rational thought: The token is useless gov token with 0 value
However,
Left curve in me: if OS launched a token last cycle what would that peak valuation have been?
Interesting - similar base pattern with $BTRFLY and $TAO. Similar situation as well with most of the supply being staked causing supply shocks are demand comes in
BTRFLY's undervalued/underappreciated as is is with their recent release of pxETH and Dinero. Their Proof-of-Liquidity model is also extremely innovative, similar to berachain which makes sense bc a lot of the OG DeFi Heads big into butterfly are big into berachain chain as well
Berachain has a lot of upcoming catalysts Jan/Feb, they just released the testnet. Having a similar model and the two teams having close relationships (assuming they do), i'm sure is helping tie BTRFLY in as beta
BTRFLY's undervalued/underappreciated as is is with their recent release of pxETH and Dinero. Their Proof-of-Liquidity model is also extremely innovative, similar to berachain which makes sense bc a lot of the OG DeFi Heads big into butterfly are big into berachain chain as well
Berachain has a lot of upcoming catalysts Jan/Feb, they just released the testnet. Having a similar model and the two teams having close relationships (assuming they do), i'm sure is helping tie BTRFLY in as beta
Every morning for the last two weeks has been wonky/volatile for stocks which spills over to crypto. There has been a lot of rate cuts priced in that are to much to soon imho. Market open moves can be washed quick - crude up 3% off of yemen news was wiped by Euro close (1/12/2023)
Maybe the markets trying to adjust expectations to be more realistic especially after we had a larger than expected inflation print. One thing i noticed is when we're in a market where rates are the largest perceived risk you have NASDAQ lead to the upside/downside vs. when earnings are the top concern IWM (small caps) has been taking that role.
just a lot of intra-day volatility, there's also been a notable absence of news which can cause the market to over react to volatility as pundints try and explain every 2% up/down move. January is usually a burn month anyway since you have a lot of people repositioning for reasons outside market drivers
Also whenever there's uncertainty for positioning people just pile into MSFT, Meta, GOOG, AMZN, AAPL as a place to hide - behavior continuing could be easy to front run with calls as a hedge to when you think volatility is going to pick up (unlessthe volatility is related to earnings expectations)
Maybe the markets trying to adjust expectations to be more realistic especially after we had a larger than expected inflation print. One thing i noticed is when we're in a market where rates are the largest perceived risk you have NASDAQ lead to the upside/downside vs. when earnings are the top concern IWM (small caps) has been taking that role.
just a lot of intra-day volatility, there's also been a notable absence of news which can cause the market to over react to volatility as pundints try and explain every 2% up/down move. January is usually a burn month anyway since you have a lot of people repositioning for reasons outside market drivers
Also whenever there's uncertainty for positioning people just pile into MSFT, Meta, GOOG, AMZN, AAPL as a place to hide - behavior continuing could be easy to front run with calls as a hedge to when you think volatility is going to pick up (unlessthe volatility is related to earnings expectations)
Should of shorted Coin and all the bitcoin minors bc of the amount of sell pressure from people rotating out and into the btc ETF's. Was really obv, kicking myself a bit, easiest put buying opportunity in the market
BGC Priv Journal
Every morning for the last two weeks has been wonky/volatile for stocks which spills over to crypto. There has been a lot of rate cuts priced in that are to much to soon imho. Market open moves can be washed quick - crude up 3% off of yemen news was wiped…
1/12/2023 - lets see if we have the same pattern today we've had the last few weeks happens today. More significant bc it's the day last day before a long weekend and earnings season
Pattern w/an empty news environment + rate concerns:
- Market Opens Up then gets followed up with a morning dump w/intra volatility and accross stocks and bonds
- Flush into euro close
- Post lunch (12:30pm EST; 9:30 PST) bounce/recovery
Rates are top of mind when there's emptiness of news/catalysts in the market. Earnings are about to start with the banks reporting next week, so the markets mindshare's about to shift from top-down back to bottom-up. If earnings are good enough to justify valuation's, Feb we may start to see a bias to the upside again. Right now theres no bias, so it's just choppy/volitile
Pattern w/an empty news environment + rate concerns:
- Market Opens Up then gets followed up with a morning dump w/intra volatility and accross stocks and bonds
- Flush into euro close
- Post lunch (12:30pm EST; 9:30 PST) bounce/recovery
Rates are top of mind when there's emptiness of news/catalysts in the market. Earnings are about to start with the banks reporting next week, so the markets mindshare's about to shift from top-down back to bottom-up. If earnings are good enough to justify valuation's, Feb we may start to see a bias to the upside again. Right now theres no bias, so it's just choppy/volitile
BGC Priv Journal
1/12/2023 - lets see if we have the same pattern today we've had the last few weeks happens today. More significant bc it's the day last day before a long weekend and earnings season Pattern w/an empty news environment + rate concerns: - Market Opens Up…
looking like the same plan so far. Nasdaq now positive +0.07%. Curious if it follows through to close
Think this should all change with earnings next week anyway, so wouldn't expect this to continue
Think this should all change with earnings next week anyway, so wouldn't expect this to continue
RSTK - we really gonna play this game again? annoying af tbh
Meanwhile, pretty easy 30%-55% opporunity in hpos playing it back to the upper range. Eth onchain gearing could still happen soon to push it past there
hard to sit on my hands with rskt when that hpos set up is so clear, esp when u know whales holding the floor and money's sidedlined ready to ape into bitcoin thinking they're being "smart" for frontrunning an eth on-chain rotation
Meanwhile, pretty easy 30%-55% opporunity in hpos playing it back to the upper range. Eth onchain gearing could still happen soon to push it past there
hard to sit on my hands with rskt when that hpos set up is so clear, esp when u know whales holding the floor and money's sidedlined ready to ape into bitcoin thinking they're being "smart" for frontrunning an eth on-chain rotation
❤1
Was hard to do but swapped Blur back to my existing RSTK pos.
RSTK had a mini shake out bc the market started going down but the r/r here was too attractive
RSTK had a mini shake out bc the market started going down but the r/r here was too attractive
Interestingly the panic dip gave ETH some breathing room to retest support and find demand after breaking out of a 1 month consolidation period.
Ideally that was enough to help it push into the 3K level where it would catch up with BTC. Would expect it to stall there for a bit while alts/midcaps (L1's, narratives, etc) to consolidate for a bit.
Would be a good recipe for liquidity to start coming back on chain towards the second half of january and heat things up for when Blast stakers are able to bridge back at the start of Febuary
....... or we just nuke. No one knows EOD, but feel like above is more likely.
Would be invalidated if we have a clear/aggressive break of support
Ideally that was enough to help it push into the 3K level where it would catch up with BTC. Would expect it to stall there for a bit while alts/midcaps (L1's, narratives, etc) to consolidate for a bit.
Would be a good recipe for liquidity to start coming back on chain towards the second half of january and heat things up for when Blast stakers are able to bridge back at the start of Febuary
....... or we just nuke. No one knows EOD, but feel like above is more likely.
Would be invalidated if we have a clear/aggressive break of support
BGC Priv Journal
Was hard to do but swapped Blur back to my existing RSTK pos. RSTK had a mini shake out bc the market started going down but the r/r here was too attractive
was able to squeeze 20% or so but cut early to buy byte. Someone bought $200K in one go and it was jeeted down.
The sells were probably auto sells from:
- limit orders being set
- it's a friday night so not many eyes may have seen that
- generally not as many eyes on ethereum coins since it's not been hot like Solana.
ETH retesting support today also made the whole TL think it's over (bearishness was big today), people probably signed off for the night. Overall it feels like a good opportunity to take a stab at it as a hold. Feels like not many saw and was able buy Byte when it was jeeted down, so not far above where the price of the $200k buy
The sells were probably auto sells from:
- limit orders being set
- it's a friday night so not many eyes may have seen that
- generally not as many eyes on ethereum coins since it's not been hot like Solana.
ETH retesting support today also made the whole TL think it's over (bearishness was big today), people probably signed off for the night. Overall it feels like a good opportunity to take a stab at it as a hold. Feels like not many saw and was able buy Byte when it was jeeted down, so not far above where the price of the $200k buy
BGC Priv Journal
50-70% upside vs. cut at 7-9% downside This Risk/Reward set up is to good to pass on rn. Even if cuting the upside early at 30% to the midrange, r/r still is really good here
Ticker Bitcoin seeing a lot of capitulation as ETH taps support, bro is fully out, was selling in $40K/$60k chunks 0x2F79978041392EbB7f1f741939E63E70c8e70100
BGC Priv Journal
50-70% upside vs. cut at 7-9% downside This Risk/Reward set up is to good to pass on rn. Even if cuting the upside early at 30% to the midrange, r/r still is really good here
really walking the line, Eth bouncing off support though should help + this people are fighting for this support