was looking through alts, most of them look like the above.
The current bounce broke their *post 10/10 down trending structure (defined by rsi/ma's) on this current bounce. During the pullback, a lot retested mid-ranges and rsi pull back to retest the "breakout".
lets see if it holds goin forward
The current bounce broke their *post 10/10 down trending structure (defined by rsi/ma's) on this current bounce. During the pullback, a lot retested mid-ranges and rsi pull back to retest the "breakout".
lets see if it holds goin forward
I rly like NVO - break up was the new that their oral product was approved. They've been moving incrementally surprising analysts with their speed to production.
I'm not a healthcare expert but oral massively expands GLP TAM IMO. LLY will have one at some point ofc, but nvo being first to market gives it room for these catalysts to give incremental upside before lly comes to market (even when they do there's room for both imo).
Its also very under-owned compared to LLY, LO's probably start to OW incrementally bc having a "defensive" position w/growth catalysts is an attractive bet to have in the port rn. At the same time, HF's probably unwinding the Long LLY / Short NVO trade boosting the stock a bit more
healthcare, so defensive positioning + growth catalyst and 2.8% yield to wait.
NFA DYODD
I'm not a healthcare expert but oral massively expands GLP TAM IMO. LLY will have one at some point ofc, but nvo being first to market gives it room for these catalysts to give incremental upside before lly comes to market (even when they do there's room for both imo).
Its also very under-owned compared to LLY, LO's probably start to OW incrementally bc having a "defensive" position w/growth catalysts is an attractive bet to have in the port rn. At the same time, HF's probably unwinding the Long LLY / Short NVO trade boosting the stock a bit more
healthcare, so defensive positioning + growth catalyst and 2.8% yield to wait.
NFA DYODD
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BGC Priv Journal
I rly like NVO - break up was the new that their oral product was approved. They've been moving incrementally surprising analysts with their speed to production. I'm not a healthcare expert but oral massively expands GLP TAM IMO. LLY will have one at some…
ya fk nvo lol Eurapean managment's don't know how to communicate
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BGC Priv Journal
ya fk nvo lol Eurapean managment's don't know how to communicate
All he had to do was talk about how the pill's increase the TAM. analysts ask about current sales, divert and talk about the TAM. Make analysts extrapolate growth into ur TAM estimate vs. focused on current numbers. but instead he's just like "i know sales set to fall short term, just trust me bro" lmfao
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BofA upgraded Murata this a.m. (OTC:MRAAY)
The chart looks interesting af. I remember playing this name during the EV boom 2019-2021, their MLCC ceramic capaciters started to ramp bc more of them were needed in electric engines vs. gas engines. IG the a similar story is playing out in DC servers rn.
The chart looks interesting af.
The chart looks interesting af. I remember playing this name during the EV boom 2019-2021, their MLCC ceramic capaciters started to ramp bc more of them were needed in electric engines vs. gas engines. IG the a similar story is playing out in DC servers rn.
The chart looks interesting af.
BGC Priv Journal
BofA upgraded Murata this a.m. (OTC:MRAAY) The chart looks interesting af. I remember playing this name during the EV boom 2019-2021, their MLCC ceramic capaciters started to ramp bc more of them were needed in electric engines vs. gas engines. IG the a…
The BofA Note: "UPGRADE MURATA TO BUY. NEXT AI PLAY. Murata is gaining notable traction among US investors as a leading Japan AI hardware play. Kubota analyst upgraded Murata to Buy and PO hike to ¥4,500, anchored by its clear technological leadership in high‑capacitance MLCCs for AI data‑center servers. Kubota highlights that Murata’s MLCC orders surged +29% YoY, far outpacing peers, as AI servers require an order‑of‑magnitude more MLCC content (20,000–25,000 units per server today, potentially exceeding 30,000 per unit in next‑gen GPU platforms). This is driving structural volume growth and margin expansion, positioning MLCCs—not smartphones—as Murata’s next multi‑year earnings engine. The investment case increasingly centers on the AI server build‑out, where Murata’s ability to mass‑produce ultra‑thin, high‑layer capacitors gives it a defensible competitive moat and makes the stock one of the most compelling Japan beneficiaries of global AI capex. As a relative short candidate, Taiyo Yuden remains structurally weaker, with improving MLCC orders but continued profitability challenges, lagging margins, and a reiterated Underperform despite a small PO increase—highlighting its widening gap vs. Murata in the AI server cycle."
man so much of this market is reliant on the continuation of capex spend lol. If there's any hint of slowing down some of this stuff is going to get crushed bc ppl will panic generally and also their multiple assumptions would be totally off (and get jittery bc of that uncertainty). There isn't any sign of a slowdown tho atm
tricky for equities to roll over hard with that spend continuing. software alr thrown out, mag7 more or less thrown out alr, some sector rotations been going on (that we talked about a while ago) but thats been underway. Index's have alr stalled out for a while because of all of that , but it wasnt enough to cause them to nuke . Not rly sure what a catalyst would be besides the capex spend ending barring an "unexpected shock". idt the most televised possible iran attack ever is that "shock"
tricky for equities to roll over hard with that spend continuing. software alr thrown out, mag7 more or less thrown out alr, some sector rotations been going on (that we talked about a while ago) but thats been underway. Index's have alr stalled out for a while because of all of that , but it wasnt enough to cause them to nuke . Not rly sure what a catalyst would be besides the capex spend ending barring an "unexpected shock". idt the most televised possible iran attack ever is that "shock"
QQQ vs. IEF/LQD
fears have been elevated even if a few select sectors moving masks the weakness the markets been seeing internally, but we're starting to approach the point where these fears - capex spend eating into cashflow, private credit, job losses, etc - have hit "peak concern" this past year which also marked local bottoms. Break through that and maybe we get the deeper correction. For now, just good to monitor
If it "rejects" and starts to move back down, that might be the signal crypto gets a real rally (would signal bigger $ is starting to take risk again vs. incrementally going risk off)
fears have been elevated even if a few select sectors moving masks the weakness the markets been seeing internally, but we're starting to approach the point where these fears - capex spend eating into cashflow, private credit, job losses, etc - have hit "peak concern" this past year which also marked local bottoms. Break through that and maybe we get the deeper correction. For now, just good to monitor
If it "rejects" and starts to move back down, that might be the signal crypto gets a real rally (would signal bigger $ is starting to take risk again vs. incrementally going risk off)
broke along side vol, time to be patient and look for signs of this resoloving
Baproll made me make this, not sure how often i'm going to post there rn but if interested - https://open.substack.com/pub/basedgod6900/p/crypto-underperformance-is-not-in?r=7559zv&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
Substack
Crypto Underperformance Is Not In Isolation
The narrative for Crypto underperformance that seems to make rounds every few months is extremely misleading IMHO
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Illumina looks very interesting
short note about software, but applies -https://substack.com/@basedgod6900/note/c-266810489?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=7559zv
Feels like a general broadening is about to happen from the concentration along the CAPEX beneficiary supply chain to more beaten down names at more attractive valuations where AI applications will help scale, increase margins, give pricing power (like software company integrating AI into its product suite for customers to leverage and hiking prices as a result), and/or generally benefit the business/industry in some capacity
short note about software, but applies -https://substack.com/@basedgod6900/note/c-266810489?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=7559zv
Feels like a general broadening is about to happen from the concentration along the CAPEX beneficiary supply chain to more beaten down names at more attractive valuations where AI applications will help scale, increase margins, give pricing power (like software company integrating AI into its product suite for customers to leverage and hiking prices as a result), and/or generally benefit the business/industry in some capacity
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