Think the last L1 season we had was more of a mean reversion. They started form "below 0" while eth started from 0, but we got a glimpse of who’s going to be a real contender during the heart of the bull cycle and where u probably want to spend time and energy looking more into, so ur prepared when they get a liq rotation again
For ex. Sol stopped and had a 30% correction when the drawdown from the past peak to current local top matched eth's drawdown (appx 50%) & had bonk reach $1B during the heat of its liq rotation. Manipulated or not, those two factors may have helped Sol established itself as a real growing contender that’s here to stay from last cycles L1’s.
In contrast, matic showed no strength, so it's probably the market telling u that spending time revisiting the eco is a waste of time/energy and it’s better to focus elsewhere
Rn it’s clear this has been just an accumulation period where Mini alt szn’s were giving clues to who the potential strong outperformers are
For ex. Sol stopped and had a 30% correction when the drawdown from the past peak to current local top matched eth's drawdown (appx 50%) & had bonk reach $1B during the heat of its liq rotation. Manipulated or not, those two factors may have helped Sol established itself as a real growing contender that’s here to stay from last cycles L1’s.
In contrast, matic showed no strength, so it's probably the market telling u that spending time revisiting the eco is a waste of time/energy and it’s better to focus elsewhere
Rn it’s clear this has been just an accumulation period where Mini alt szn’s were giving clues to who the potential strong outperformers are
First Reactions of Approval before the SEC said account was hacked. Reactions were interesting:
- Bitcoin whicked up/down and ended flat. It's now declining after the SEC's follow up statement
- Eth & Eth beta ripped and still moving after SEC's follow up statement
- Bitcoin whicked up/down and ended flat. It's now declining after the SEC's follow up statement
- Eth & Eth beta ripped and still moving after SEC's follow up statement
Good Summary Post on Pendle Catalysts and exectution. Long time favorite + Equilibria/Penpie/Stake DAO constantly scooping supply to boost pool yields create a great ponzi flywheel for favorable supply/demand dynamicsfor the token. Can be some consolidation since it moved big for it's size, but EOD Pendle probably keeps winning Long Term
https://x.com/alpha_pls/status/1745376660529045876?s=20
https://x.com/alpha_pls/status/1745376660529045876?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
Aylo (@alpha_pls) on X
When someone asked me who the biggest winner of 2023 was, @pendle_fi immediately sprung to mind.
They clearly found PMF in the bear, establishing yield trading in DeFi. They released their v2 and went from near zero TVL to $244M today.
These guys are…
They clearly found PMF in the bear, establishing yield trading in DeFi. They released their v2 and went from near zero TVL to $244M today.
These guys are…
Blur - Looks reallly really interesting here. I've struggled with midcurving
Rational thought: The token is useless gov token with 0 value
However,
Left curve in me: if OS launched a token last cycle what would that peak valuation have been?
Rational thought: The token is useless gov token with 0 value
However,
Left curve in me: if OS launched a token last cycle what would that peak valuation have been?
Interesting - similar base pattern with $BTRFLY and $TAO. Similar situation as well with most of the supply being staked causing supply shocks are demand comes in
BTRFLY's undervalued/underappreciated as is is with their recent release of pxETH and Dinero. Their Proof-of-Liquidity model is also extremely innovative, similar to berachain which makes sense bc a lot of the OG DeFi Heads big into butterfly are big into berachain chain as well
Berachain has a lot of upcoming catalysts Jan/Feb, they just released the testnet. Having a similar model and the two teams having close relationships (assuming they do), i'm sure is helping tie BTRFLY in as beta
BTRFLY's undervalued/underappreciated as is is with their recent release of pxETH and Dinero. Their Proof-of-Liquidity model is also extremely innovative, similar to berachain which makes sense bc a lot of the OG DeFi Heads big into butterfly are big into berachain chain as well
Berachain has a lot of upcoming catalysts Jan/Feb, they just released the testnet. Having a similar model and the two teams having close relationships (assuming they do), i'm sure is helping tie BTRFLY in as beta
Every morning for the last two weeks has been wonky/volatile for stocks which spills over to crypto. There has been a lot of rate cuts priced in that are to much to soon imho. Market open moves can be washed quick - crude up 3% off of yemen news was wiped by Euro close (1/12/2023)
Maybe the markets trying to adjust expectations to be more realistic especially after we had a larger than expected inflation print. One thing i noticed is when we're in a market where rates are the largest perceived risk you have NASDAQ lead to the upside/downside vs. when earnings are the top concern IWM (small caps) has been taking that role.
just a lot of intra-day volatility, there's also been a notable absence of news which can cause the market to over react to volatility as pundints try and explain every 2% up/down move. January is usually a burn month anyway since you have a lot of people repositioning for reasons outside market drivers
Also whenever there's uncertainty for positioning people just pile into MSFT, Meta, GOOG, AMZN, AAPL as a place to hide - behavior continuing could be easy to front run with calls as a hedge to when you think volatility is going to pick up (unlessthe volatility is related to earnings expectations)
Maybe the markets trying to adjust expectations to be more realistic especially after we had a larger than expected inflation print. One thing i noticed is when we're in a market where rates are the largest perceived risk you have NASDAQ lead to the upside/downside vs. when earnings are the top concern IWM (small caps) has been taking that role.
just a lot of intra-day volatility, there's also been a notable absence of news which can cause the market to over react to volatility as pundints try and explain every 2% up/down move. January is usually a burn month anyway since you have a lot of people repositioning for reasons outside market drivers
Also whenever there's uncertainty for positioning people just pile into MSFT, Meta, GOOG, AMZN, AAPL as a place to hide - behavior continuing could be easy to front run with calls as a hedge to when you think volatility is going to pick up (unlessthe volatility is related to earnings expectations)
Should of shorted Coin and all the bitcoin minors bc of the amount of sell pressure from people rotating out and into the btc ETF's. Was really obv, kicking myself a bit, easiest put buying opportunity in the market
BGC Priv Journal
Every morning for the last two weeks has been wonky/volatile for stocks which spills over to crypto. There has been a lot of rate cuts priced in that are to much to soon imho. Market open moves can be washed quick - crude up 3% off of yemen news was wiped…
1/12/2023 - lets see if we have the same pattern today we've had the last few weeks happens today. More significant bc it's the day last day before a long weekend and earnings season
Pattern w/an empty news environment + rate concerns:
- Market Opens Up then gets followed up with a morning dump w/intra volatility and accross stocks and bonds
- Flush into euro close
- Post lunch (12:30pm EST; 9:30 PST) bounce/recovery
Rates are top of mind when there's emptiness of news/catalysts in the market. Earnings are about to start with the banks reporting next week, so the markets mindshare's about to shift from top-down back to bottom-up. If earnings are good enough to justify valuation's, Feb we may start to see a bias to the upside again. Right now theres no bias, so it's just choppy/volitile
Pattern w/an empty news environment + rate concerns:
- Market Opens Up then gets followed up with a morning dump w/intra volatility and accross stocks and bonds
- Flush into euro close
- Post lunch (12:30pm EST; 9:30 PST) bounce/recovery
Rates are top of mind when there's emptiness of news/catalysts in the market. Earnings are about to start with the banks reporting next week, so the markets mindshare's about to shift from top-down back to bottom-up. If earnings are good enough to justify valuation's, Feb we may start to see a bias to the upside again. Right now theres no bias, so it's just choppy/volitile
BGC Priv Journal
1/12/2023 - lets see if we have the same pattern today we've had the last few weeks happens today. More significant bc it's the day last day before a long weekend and earnings season Pattern w/an empty news environment + rate concerns: - Market Opens Up…
looking like the same plan so far. Nasdaq now positive +0.07%. Curious if it follows through to close
Think this should all change with earnings next week anyway, so wouldn't expect this to continue
Think this should all change with earnings next week anyway, so wouldn't expect this to continue
RSTK - we really gonna play this game again? annoying af tbh
Meanwhile, pretty easy 30%-55% opporunity in hpos playing it back to the upper range. Eth onchain gearing could still happen soon to push it past there
hard to sit on my hands with rskt when that hpos set up is so clear, esp when u know whales holding the floor and money's sidedlined ready to ape into bitcoin thinking they're being "smart" for frontrunning an eth on-chain rotation
Meanwhile, pretty easy 30%-55% opporunity in hpos playing it back to the upper range. Eth onchain gearing could still happen soon to push it past there
hard to sit on my hands with rskt when that hpos set up is so clear, esp when u know whales holding the floor and money's sidedlined ready to ape into bitcoin thinking they're being "smart" for frontrunning an eth on-chain rotation
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