Don't forget the bigger picture -
We've just had minicycle precursers that are kind of unvailing the potential leaders
L1: ETH, Sol, INJ, TIA, KUJI
AI: OLAS, TAO, ORAI, WLD - runner up - AGRS; small cap - EnqAI
Sol AI: NOS, SNS, DITH
Compute: RNDR, AKT, OPSEC
L2's OP>ARB, MNT
BRC20: Ordi, Mubi, BSSB, ORDS
DeFi 2.0 - LSDFi, Restaking, RWA: Pendle, BTRFLY (Berachain dual play, currently market not up to speed so it's cheap), Ondo. Runner ups - SSV, PRISMA, LBR
ETH Cult Coins: SPX, Mog, Bitcoin
ETH Memecoins: Smurf, Joe, Pepe (pepe beta - bobo, wojak)
SOL Memes: Bonk, WIFF, Harambe, Stan, etc (i'm not to versed in sol memes)
Risk Managment rn is ultimate priority. Better to buy when things are cheap and just trade stack back to value later. Want good cost basis on convictions + good size $ stack for when the real alt szn comes. Thats when shit can gets really retarted
We've just had minicycle precursers that are kind of unvailing the potential leaders
L1: ETH, Sol, INJ, TIA, KUJI
AI: OLAS, TAO, ORAI, WLD - runner up - AGRS; small cap - EnqAI
Sol AI: NOS, SNS, DITH
Compute: RNDR, AKT, OPSEC
L2's OP>ARB, MNT
BRC20: Ordi, Mubi, BSSB, ORDS
DeFi 2.0 - LSDFi, Restaking, RWA: Pendle, BTRFLY (Berachain dual play, currently market not up to speed so it's cheap), Ondo. Runner ups - SSV, PRISMA, LBR
ETH Cult Coins: SPX, Mog, Bitcoin
ETH Memecoins: Smurf, Joe, Pepe (pepe beta - bobo, wojak)
SOL Memes: Bonk, WIFF, Harambe, Stan, etc (i'm not to versed in sol memes)
Risk Managment rn is ultimate priority. Better to buy when things are cheap and just trade stack back to value later. Want good cost basis on convictions + good size $ stack for when the real alt szn comes. Thats when shit can gets really retarted
❤2
Think the last L1 season we had was more of a mean reversion. They started form "below 0" while eth started from 0, but we got a glimpse of who’s going to be a real contender during the heart of the bull cycle and where u probably want to spend time and energy looking more into, so ur prepared when they get a liq rotation again
For ex. Sol stopped and had a 30% correction when the drawdown from the past peak to current local top matched eth's drawdown (appx 50%) & had bonk reach $1B during the heat of its liq rotation. Manipulated or not, those two factors may have helped Sol established itself as a real growing contender that’s here to stay from last cycles L1’s.
In contrast, matic showed no strength, so it's probably the market telling u that spending time revisiting the eco is a waste of time/energy and it’s better to focus elsewhere
Rn it’s clear this has been just an accumulation period where Mini alt szn’s were giving clues to who the potential strong outperformers are
For ex. Sol stopped and had a 30% correction when the drawdown from the past peak to current local top matched eth's drawdown (appx 50%) & had bonk reach $1B during the heat of its liq rotation. Manipulated or not, those two factors may have helped Sol established itself as a real growing contender that’s here to stay from last cycles L1’s.
In contrast, matic showed no strength, so it's probably the market telling u that spending time revisiting the eco is a waste of time/energy and it’s better to focus elsewhere
Rn it’s clear this has been just an accumulation period where Mini alt szn’s were giving clues to who the potential strong outperformers are
First Reactions of Approval before the SEC said account was hacked. Reactions were interesting:
- Bitcoin whicked up/down and ended flat. It's now declining after the SEC's follow up statement
- Eth & Eth beta ripped and still moving after SEC's follow up statement
- Bitcoin whicked up/down and ended flat. It's now declining after the SEC's follow up statement
- Eth & Eth beta ripped and still moving after SEC's follow up statement
Good Summary Post on Pendle Catalysts and exectution. Long time favorite + Equilibria/Penpie/Stake DAO constantly scooping supply to boost pool yields create a great ponzi flywheel for favorable supply/demand dynamicsfor the token. Can be some consolidation since it moved big for it's size, but EOD Pendle probably keeps winning Long Term
https://x.com/alpha_pls/status/1745376660529045876?s=20
https://x.com/alpha_pls/status/1745376660529045876?s=20
X (formerly Twitter)
Aylo (@alpha_pls) on X
When someone asked me who the biggest winner of 2023 was, @pendle_fi immediately sprung to mind.
They clearly found PMF in the bear, establishing yield trading in DeFi. They released their v2 and went from near zero TVL to $244M today.
These guys are…
They clearly found PMF in the bear, establishing yield trading in DeFi. They released their v2 and went from near zero TVL to $244M today.
These guys are…
Blur - Looks reallly really interesting here. I've struggled with midcurving
Rational thought: The token is useless gov token with 0 value
However,
Left curve in me: if OS launched a token last cycle what would that peak valuation have been?
Rational thought: The token is useless gov token with 0 value
However,
Left curve in me: if OS launched a token last cycle what would that peak valuation have been?
Interesting - similar base pattern with $BTRFLY and $TAO. Similar situation as well with most of the supply being staked causing supply shocks are demand comes in
BTRFLY's undervalued/underappreciated as is is with their recent release of pxETH and Dinero. Their Proof-of-Liquidity model is also extremely innovative, similar to berachain which makes sense bc a lot of the OG DeFi Heads big into butterfly are big into berachain chain as well
Berachain has a lot of upcoming catalysts Jan/Feb, they just released the testnet. Having a similar model and the two teams having close relationships (assuming they do), i'm sure is helping tie BTRFLY in as beta
BTRFLY's undervalued/underappreciated as is is with their recent release of pxETH and Dinero. Their Proof-of-Liquidity model is also extremely innovative, similar to berachain which makes sense bc a lot of the OG DeFi Heads big into butterfly are big into berachain chain as well
Berachain has a lot of upcoming catalysts Jan/Feb, they just released the testnet. Having a similar model and the two teams having close relationships (assuming they do), i'm sure is helping tie BTRFLY in as beta
Every morning for the last two weeks has been wonky/volatile for stocks which spills over to crypto. There has been a lot of rate cuts priced in that are to much to soon imho. Market open moves can be washed quick - crude up 3% off of yemen news was wiped by Euro close (1/12/2023)
Maybe the markets trying to adjust expectations to be more realistic especially after we had a larger than expected inflation print. One thing i noticed is when we're in a market where rates are the largest perceived risk you have NASDAQ lead to the upside/downside vs. when earnings are the top concern IWM (small caps) has been taking that role.
just a lot of intra-day volatility, there's also been a notable absence of news which can cause the market to over react to volatility as pundints try and explain every 2% up/down move. January is usually a burn month anyway since you have a lot of people repositioning for reasons outside market drivers
Also whenever there's uncertainty for positioning people just pile into MSFT, Meta, GOOG, AMZN, AAPL as a place to hide - behavior continuing could be easy to front run with calls as a hedge to when you think volatility is going to pick up (unlessthe volatility is related to earnings expectations)
Maybe the markets trying to adjust expectations to be more realistic especially after we had a larger than expected inflation print. One thing i noticed is when we're in a market where rates are the largest perceived risk you have NASDAQ lead to the upside/downside vs. when earnings are the top concern IWM (small caps) has been taking that role.
just a lot of intra-day volatility, there's also been a notable absence of news which can cause the market to over react to volatility as pundints try and explain every 2% up/down move. January is usually a burn month anyway since you have a lot of people repositioning for reasons outside market drivers
Also whenever there's uncertainty for positioning people just pile into MSFT, Meta, GOOG, AMZN, AAPL as a place to hide - behavior continuing could be easy to front run with calls as a hedge to when you think volatility is going to pick up (unlessthe volatility is related to earnings expectations)