spx is only 18x FY26 eps estimates, inline with longterm avg's, its not at a premium. the multiple excluding mag7 is probably alot lower (like 16x - idk if true just a guage) giving room for flows to broaden and give an uplift

if mag7 contniues to stay elevated or grind up while there are alot more of the 493 companies that fits ^ that profile vs. a profile where uncertainty remains and downgraded estimates are warrented, then the indexes are likely going higher over the mid term

6050 hit, then we proceded to nuke across all markets due to conflict escalation in the middle east

If oil doesn't climb higher, making a new elevated floor then this move is likely short term in response to the escalations and won't actually have any material effect on inflation and therefor unlikely to play through to earnings on a broad basis

Buying geopolitical risk is the move the majority of the time, its the Hedge Fund playbook. Given their positioning tailwinds are still present in the market, dips likely get bought up by them as the headlines start to be repetitive and have a diminishing effect on vol (barring no huge spike in oil, like it running hot to $100 which would likely only be caused by severe escalation)

New target 6,150 on SPX.

look at that hourly candle, aggressive scooping

report that iran wants to end the hostilities, was in the chart

you can see the regime change wen the conflict esclations started. Pre gold line correlaiton more positive bc growth was the primary focus for markets. After the conflict, correlation turned negative bc inflation became the primary concern again vs. growth. this will change back eventually, but thats why the risk off before this fed meeting was alot more apparent vs. the last one

update

6,150 hit 🤝

no targets for now, lets see how we react to price discovery. Current price 6,160

transitioning to risk on?

HTF vrsn

seen another way that we care more about - nuke it pls