axiom is actually pretty good (not ashamed) - https://axiom.trade/@bgc
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Seeing a lot of ppl flip bearish now that sol and btc dropped, but weren't bearish while on chain was getting gaped for over a month straight.
I think denominating in sol is very one sided at this point and a lot of the crowd that just flipped bearish are the same ppl that capitulated into sol later in 2024 when it was around these prices, meaning most of them round tripped or are underwater now. I can imagine that clouds their judgment and is why they're flipping bearish now vs being bullish just a few days ago before the drop in btc sol and some alts
The other Cohort that's been bearish onchain are mostly CEX participants that capitulated to participating here since alt/major volatility has been tame overall and almost no alts besides Sol and some dinos like XRP and HBAR did anything the entire cycle so far. This cohort are onchain tourists for the most part and chase momentum. Not that trend/momentum is a bad style, but its A Single style, not the end all be all. They're not good at asset selection during the consolidation / accumulation phase nor do they claim to be. If you're an onchain player trying to identify opportunities to accumulate this is also the last type of person you should be listening to if you're operating on timeframes longer than a few weeks. Especially don't pay attention to their opinion on memecoins when most of them can't differentiate something like SPX6900 from Libra. They play the trend game, not the asset selection game which are two different approaches to to the market
The other Cohort that's bearish, particularly on memecoins are mostly midcurvers - nothing rly to say here, its not even that they hate memecoins they just hate on whatever makes people money bc they can't make money. Easy to identify this crowd, most are still stuck thinking TIA is will ramp to ath soon. They also fell for AI and bought Zerebro at 700m thinking the binance listing was bullish. The other big claim they make is more coins = bad. Anyone actually participating understands 90% of these coins have a life cycle that's 1hr or less before going to 0, they're not diluting or creating dispersion in liquidity.
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Onchain gets mini liquidity cycles w/in the broader macro cycle and comes in waves. After each wave you get large drawdowns and consolidation, this is by design. You need the majority of assets to get wiped and liquidity to consolidate into quality, the market essentially votes for what resides in this basket. The first major wave was in 2023 on eth. During that wave there were 49 coins on my watchlist. From that wave there are barely 10 now. These 10 or so survivors of the first wave on eth have made macro higher highs within each consecutive wave that's come while the others are essentially sitting at 0. I don't doubt a lot of sol onchain is about to go through this same type of cleanse throughout a consolidation period which is a net-benefit longer term. One area i could see a lot of ppl may get burned is assuming low caps = higher return, it does not - also particularly talking about native sol coins here, esp ones that have been through multiple waves on sol (mark 90% of cat coins to 0, there will be like 1-3 max, if that). At this point in the cycle an asset has a higher mkt cap/valuation bc more liquidity has voted for it to. It's also where liquidity will flow first. There are outliers ofc, but you have to be good at identifying the few
I remain bullish, I do not think this cycle is over. Are we potentially going to go through consolidation coming out of this last wave? 100% possible but that doesn't equate to a cycle end. Long periods of nothingness are common, esp since i don't think volume will ramp meaningfully on pf anytime soon because of the recent events. Its a good time to hunt/identify assets to accumulate on sale, but selection is important. To think this cycle is over is to claim this time is different with the collective alt market not making a new high. Ofc this time could be different, but hard to make that base assumption
I think denominating in sol is very one sided at this point and a lot of the crowd that just flipped bearish are the same ppl that capitulated into sol later in 2024 when it was around these prices, meaning most of them round tripped or are underwater now. I can imagine that clouds their judgment and is why they're flipping bearish now vs being bullish just a few days ago before the drop in btc sol and some alts
The other Cohort that's been bearish onchain are mostly CEX participants that capitulated to participating here since alt/major volatility has been tame overall and almost no alts besides Sol and some dinos like XRP and HBAR did anything the entire cycle so far. This cohort are onchain tourists for the most part and chase momentum. Not that trend/momentum is a bad style, but its A Single style, not the end all be all. They're not good at asset selection during the consolidation / accumulation phase nor do they claim to be. If you're an onchain player trying to identify opportunities to accumulate this is also the last type of person you should be listening to if you're operating on timeframes longer than a few weeks. Especially don't pay attention to their opinion on memecoins when most of them can't differentiate something like SPX6900 from Libra. They play the trend game, not the asset selection game which are two different approaches to to the market
The other Cohort that's bearish, particularly on memecoins are mostly midcurvers - nothing rly to say here, its not even that they hate memecoins they just hate on whatever makes people money bc they can't make money. Easy to identify this crowd, most are still stuck thinking TIA is will ramp to ath soon. They also fell for AI and bought Zerebro at 700m thinking the binance listing was bullish. The other big claim they make is more coins = bad. Anyone actually participating understands 90% of these coins have a life cycle that's 1hr or less before going to 0, they're not diluting or creating dispersion in liquidity.
------------------------------------------------------
Onchain gets mini liquidity cycles w/in the broader macro cycle and comes in waves. After each wave you get large drawdowns and consolidation, this is by design. You need the majority of assets to get wiped and liquidity to consolidate into quality, the market essentially votes for what resides in this basket. The first major wave was in 2023 on eth. During that wave there were 49 coins on my watchlist. From that wave there are barely 10 now. These 10 or so survivors of the first wave on eth have made macro higher highs within each consecutive wave that's come while the others are essentially sitting at 0. I don't doubt a lot of sol onchain is about to go through this same type of cleanse throughout a consolidation period which is a net-benefit longer term. One area i could see a lot of ppl may get burned is assuming low caps = higher return, it does not - also particularly talking about native sol coins here, esp ones that have been through multiple waves on sol (mark 90% of cat coins to 0, there will be like 1-3 max, if that). At this point in the cycle an asset has a higher mkt cap/valuation bc more liquidity has voted for it to. It's also where liquidity will flow first. There are outliers ofc, but you have to be good at identifying the few
I remain bullish, I do not think this cycle is over. Are we potentially going to go through consolidation coming out of this last wave? 100% possible but that doesn't equate to a cycle end. Long periods of nothingness are common, esp since i don't think volume will ramp meaningfully on pf anytime soon because of the recent events. Its a good time to hunt/identify assets to accumulate on sale, but selection is important. To think this cycle is over is to claim this time is different with the collective alt market not making a new high. Ofc this time could be different, but hard to make that base assumption
❤8
example of waves. Joe is one of the coins i use to guage signal for eth and onchain divergences which is usually bullish the for the major (leverage getitng wiped on divergences vs. normal selling). idk why it identifies waves so well, mayb bc its one of the last surviving pure onchain no cex coins on eth thats survived multiple waves. tbh i have no idea y it lines up often, but look at the dates on joe and eth chart
👍5😱1
pretty wild - 20% jump in bearish sentiment (40% to 60%) week over week, 7th largest weekly reading ever
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BGC Priv Journal
pretty wild - 20% jump in bearish sentiment (40% to 60%) week over week, 7th largest weekly reading ever
Yep, risk was to the upside.
❤1
leaning top 2 vs. bottom case
idt we get the bottom case unless a new shock blindsides the mkt. Tariffs as is prob wont do it, most of that shock's been likely been absorbed. Most of the move was unwinding positioning from funds, esp foreign funds. They were all long the same stuff that comprises >30% of the index. Deepseek (for nvda, 8% of Q's) + Trump Policy blindsided ppl & made the growth scare come early. For now all incremental data has calmed ppl (growth can be an issue later but its not one now).
no matter what angle u choose to approach why we experienced the drawdown at that speed, all signs point to the action driving things down was unwinding overcrowded positioning. breadth throughout the drawdown was good, Risks r still here but if theres no big new shock, i think markets should calm for a bit (we'll have a better view after aprl 2)
there's more that can be said but that's the tldr
thread of interesting charts/data points - https://x.com/BlueLightCapit1/status/1902721495933071767
idt we get the bottom case unless a new shock blindsides the mkt. Tariffs as is prob wont do it, most of that shock's been likely been absorbed. Most of the move was unwinding positioning from funds, esp foreign funds. They were all long the same stuff that comprises >30% of the index. Deepseek (for nvda, 8% of Q's) + Trump Policy blindsided ppl & made the growth scare come early. For now all incremental data has calmed ppl (growth can be an issue later but its not one now).
no matter what angle u choose to approach why we experienced the drawdown at that speed, all signs point to the action driving things down was unwinding overcrowded positioning. breadth throughout the drawdown was good, Risks r still here but if theres no big new shock, i think markets should calm for a bit (we'll have a better view after aprl 2)
there's more that can be said but that's the tldr
thread of interesting charts/data points - https://x.com/BlueLightCapit1/status/1902721495933071767
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On semis specifically (esp nvda which is important bc super crowded and 8% of the Q's)
People are still unsure about CAPEX spend looking at the back half of the year, in addition to macro growth generally. Semi's are still an area where there's money to be unwound in, clear by MU's earnings reaction. From some questions on the call it’s also clear that ppl are skeptical on where semi's are at cyclically.
Semi's will probably be weak until 2Q25 earnings where ppl can have more visibility into 2H25 as well as 2026. 2Q25 Results could be a tailwind if the visibility is good, however bc of how crowded that area still is, ppl really skeptical on the earnings front bc its easy to get burned on a semiconductor growth story and get caught holding the bag when earnings drop off. Therefore even if it becomes a tailwind after 2Q25 bc of good guidance for the back half of this year, there's still time between now and then for the market to speculate over headline news while they're shaky on the sector. We don't want to see to a lot of news like we got from MSFT yesterday about them cutting some datacenter plans as people can over-extrapolate that headline and interoperate it as a meaningful amount of CAPEX will drop off leading to NVDA's earnings taking a big hit. Even if the news is not something that would effect NVDA and NVDA's supply chain in a big way, the market will likely the assume worst as their initial reaction (like they did to the MSFT news yesterday), since they are jittery over the lack of earnings visibility, so negative news between now and when they report 2Q25 earnings still poses a risk.
When thinking about the impact of this on the market indecies, particularly the Q's, flows to software can offset that weakness like we saw a bit of two days ago wen ppl were roating a bit out of euro/china back to US front running Arp 2 after Trump walked back some of the tarrif stuff. However, when both Software and Semi's go down in tandem like yesterday that’s when the index’s get iffy, esp the Q's.
People are still unsure about CAPEX spend looking at the back half of the year, in addition to macro growth generally. Semi's are still an area where there's money to be unwound in, clear by MU's earnings reaction. From some questions on the call it’s also clear that ppl are skeptical on where semi's are at cyclically.
Semi's will probably be weak until 2Q25 earnings where ppl can have more visibility into 2H25 as well as 2026. 2Q25 Results could be a tailwind if the visibility is good, however bc of how crowded that area still is, ppl really skeptical on the earnings front bc its easy to get burned on a semiconductor growth story and get caught holding the bag when earnings drop off. Therefore even if it becomes a tailwind after 2Q25 bc of good guidance for the back half of this year, there's still time between now and then for the market to speculate over headline news while they're shaky on the sector. We don't want to see to a lot of news like we got from MSFT yesterday about them cutting some datacenter plans as people can over-extrapolate that headline and interoperate it as a meaningful amount of CAPEX will drop off leading to NVDA's earnings taking a big hit. Even if the news is not something that would effect NVDA and NVDA's supply chain in a big way, the market will likely the assume worst as their initial reaction (like they did to the MSFT news yesterday), since they are jittery over the lack of earnings visibility, so negative news between now and when they report 2Q25 earnings still poses a risk.
When thinking about the impact of this on the market indecies, particularly the Q's, flows to software can offset that weakness like we saw a bit of two days ago wen ppl were roating a bit out of euro/china back to US front running Arp 2 after Trump walked back some of the tarrif stuff. However, when both Software and Semi's go down in tandem like yesterday that’s when the index’s get iffy, esp the Q's.
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BGC Priv Journal
On semis specifically (esp nvda which is important bc super crowded and 8% of the Q's) People are still unsure about CAPEX spend looking at the back half of the year, in addition to macro growth generally. Semi's are still an area where there's money to be…
if ur rly long like me (holding spot), OTM puts 3-6months out on NVDA itself or SMH (semi etf) or Q's generally, with $ ur willing to burn for protection is not a bad hedge idea. NFA ofc
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Forwarded from lvv | PUMPY
new type of scam.
don’t click on tokens web with cloudflare. Instead of confirming, you are agreeing to download file.
don’t be drained
don’t click on tokens web with cloudflare. Instead of confirming, you are agreeing to download file.
don’t be drained
👍5
both thoughts intresting reads, esp teh quoted tweet https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1906744903687712975