this is another example of something that's lost the spot light but has been consolidating well

Contrary to CT opinion the market views Trump a risk to inflation resurgence and he will create ongoing volatility. Study 2016 to 2017, his last presidency and when he started throwing around tarrif policy's while also starting the current on-going cold war w/china

another ex. of PCE giving the green light

Memes moving the hardest. Likely bc consensus is that AI > memes & that most memes are dead . This just illustrates consensus positioning is overweight AI and underweight meme’s (esp ones with real communities)

- profit taking / taking the loss at the lows rotating to the former = reduced exposure

- targeted as shorts while in a reflexive momentum cycle creates even more momentum

Fact is memes have consolidated for a while vs. the other category. Toxic liquidity has been shaken out leaving mostly true believers having a grip on majority of supply while mercenary capital rotated sectors like AI.

Consolidation shed liquidity out of rotator hands into the believers hands which is what creates the “sendyness” of a coin.

Then bc momentum in the market is in the asset rotators are underweight and widely under-owned, they switch their positioning to chase momentum into an asset where most of the people left holding don’t plan on selling much higher (real believers) and create mini supply shocks. The repositioning causes more momentum and creates a reflexive cycle.

The ones that are the most “cleansed” and under-owned (coins that are leaders/not rando shitters) do the best and outperform the most (coded)

monster bids on eth

DXY ripping - if ur in a country with dollar denominated debt, pivot to crypto and US risk assets or u actually wont make it

this probably started today, not that AI won't do well at all but a clear vibe shift if we see this dispersion continue for a few sessions

at the minimum, the performance difference confirms where consensus is overweight (AI) vs. underweight (memes)

candle was bc job openings and ism data came in better than expected - "economy's doing better than we thougt, NUKE EVERYTHING" lol. On a real note tho its just the interest rate game again - pricing in more probability of higher for longer and pricing out probability for out more cuts. Either outcome isnt a big deal imo, but the big vol associated with the fx / rate swings is what creates the shakiness intra-day. This also somewhat confirms something i was thinking lately - that people have been levering up through the carry trade again over the last quarter or so. It's probably y things like crypto majors and semi's are once again rly sensitive to these big intra-day swings in dollar/rates

look at the correlation between btc/nvda and then the the dispersion micron's showing - if u were adding back on the carry trade to long crypto and semi's again, youre probably adding to nvda first at these prices before u move out the curve onto something like micron (i.e. micron isnt as sensitive to the shapr moves in dollar/rates bc models arent overwiehgt)

we just need fx and rate volatility to cool off then things will settle down a bit. I'm not sure if the data today is enough for big continuation on the vol side - doesnt mean i think majors / semi's ramp to turbo up only mode, just thinking that the aggressive sell will chill out and majors will base out and relax a bit --- for where most of us play (onchain) this is all we need

whats funny about CT and macro is that while Marco’s important, also plenty of ways to not rly need it at all and focus on "what u own" (just know the v big picture & keep in the back of ur head vs. hyperfocused on the details [most on CT - not all don’t @ me - are usually doing their analysis on macro as it pertains to price wrong anyways]).

There are coins that every smack down in the mkt it draws down to a Higher Low and every rip in the mkt it makes a Higher High even while the majors are in a range. Identifying those vs. googling what rrp is would to most on ct a favor