BGC Priv Journal
AI and Meme's are starting to get bids again. Consensus expectation is for there to be a market wide flush, contraction in Total3/Others and BTC.D to rise Most of this move in Total3/others was driven by Last Cycle/Dino alts while meme's for the most part…
also if there even is a nuke, i dont expect one tommorow, we prob have some juice still in the tank for alts to run
BGC Priv Journal
AI and Meme's are starting to get bids again. Consensus expectation is for there to be a market wide flush, contraction in Total3/Others and BTC.D to rise Most of this move in Total3/others was driven by Last Cycle/Dino alts while meme's for the most part…
(older alts stalling and continued bids coming into large/mid caps on chain (or on-chain native stuff) & newer alts aka most of our bags. feels like it's time for that to shine and get a rotation. Many of them have been shed of rotationary liq and are primed to run
Quality is cheap rn and in not a bad place to bid and wait but i dont think they're going to do anything significant until the market makes a real move higher but rn is a good spot to accumulate. Example: HEHE - getting those vibes again (still somewhat relies on popcat). This is jsut one example, however many things are like this atm. i think we're about to re-run the playbook from a few months ago - quality meme's bottomed out and have had enough chaning of hands to ready them to leg again. Sol AI i think you have to rly be selective, the stuff from wave 1 that has communities, were leaders, and have gone through consolidation are looking bottomed and will likely outperform the more recent runners - sol AI play is likely wave 1 leaders and new runners, but the coins inbetween will likely underperform bc they havn't been "cleansed" enough. Could be wrong on all of this but thats the thesis as of now. Eth is much easier, there's literally less than 10 coins and will all rip lol
BGC Priv Journal
Quality is cheap rn and in not a bad place to bid and wait but i dont think they're going to do anything significant until the market makes a real move higher but rn is a good spot to accumulate. Example: HEHE - getting those vibes again (still somewhat relies…
this is another example of something that's lost the spot light but has been consolidating well
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BasedGod Cap
if we get over this we might be able to run
tldr on the fed - https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1869748295511257580
powels stance was unexpected + existing CPI fears (+ rates been signaling the fear rising over the last month) created a shock even though people de-risked ahead. lead to panic selling + rush for protection spiking vol (vix ramp) triggering systematic unwinds. last night was brutal, crypto having more risk-on/risk-off charachteristics bc of TradFi flows, got caught up in that unwind into relatively low volume / not much real activity throughout the night. probably y there was brutal sell pressure at any flicker of green. The overnight selloff esp happened bc more derisking occured after the fed meeting and throughout the night before PCE today fearing it would come in higher than expected
PCE coming in lower than expected today reduced the inflation fears and pretty obvious risk is being added back and protection is unwinding. is it over? idk, but rn we're probably seeing flows adding back positioning after derisking.
powels stance was unexpected + existing CPI fears (+ rates been signaling the fear rising over the last month) created a shock even though people de-risked ahead. lead to panic selling + rush for protection spiking vol (vix ramp) triggering systematic unwinds. last night was brutal, crypto having more risk-on/risk-off charachteristics bc of TradFi flows, got caught up in that unwind into relatively low volume / not much real activity throughout the night. probably y there was brutal sell pressure at any flicker of green. The overnight selloff esp happened bc more derisking occured after the fed meeting and throughout the night before PCE today fearing it would come in higher than expected
PCE coming in lower than expected today reduced the inflation fears and pretty obvious risk is being added back and protection is unwinding. is it over? idk, but rn we're probably seeing flows adding back positioning after derisking.
BGC Priv Journal
tldr on the fed - https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1869748295511257580 powels stance was unexpected + existing CPI fears (+ rates been signaling the fear rising over the last month) created a shock even though people de-risked ahead. lead to panic selling…
Contrary to CT opinion the market views Trump a risk to inflation resurgence and he will create ongoing volatility. Study 2016 to 2017, his last presidency and when he started throwing around tarrif policy's while also starting the current on-going cold war w/china
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Memes moving the hardest. Likely bc consensus is that AI > memes & that most memes are dead . This just illustrates consensus positioning is overweight AI and underweight meme’s (esp ones with real communities)
- profit taking / taking the loss at the lows rotating to the former = reduced exposure
- targeted as shorts while in a reflexive momentum cycle creates even more momentum
Fact is memes have consolidated for a while vs. the other category. Toxic liquidity has been shaken out leaving mostly true believers having a grip on majority of supply while mercenary capital rotated sectors like AI.
Consolidation shed liquidity out of rotator hands into the believers hands which is what creates the “sendyness” of a coin.
Then bc momentum in the market is in the asset rotators are underweight and widely under-owned, they switch their positioning to chase momentum into an asset where most of the people left holding don’t plan on selling much higher (real believers) and create mini supply shocks. The repositioning causes more momentum and creates a reflexive cycle.
The ones that are the most “cleansed” and under-owned (coins that are leaders/not rando shitters) do the best and outperform the most (coded)
- profit taking / taking the loss at the lows rotating to the former = reduced exposure
- targeted as shorts while in a reflexive momentum cycle creates even more momentum
Fact is memes have consolidated for a while vs. the other category. Toxic liquidity has been shaken out leaving mostly true believers having a grip on majority of supply while mercenary capital rotated sectors like AI.
Consolidation shed liquidity out of rotator hands into the believers hands which is what creates the “sendyness” of a coin.
Then bc momentum in the market is in the asset rotators are underweight and widely under-owned, they switch their positioning to chase momentum into an asset where most of the people left holding don’t plan on selling much higher (real believers) and create mini supply shocks. The repositioning causes more momentum and creates a reflexive cycle.
The ones that are the most “cleansed” and under-owned (coins that are leaders/not rando shitters) do the best and outperform the most (coded)
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DXY ripping - if ur in a country with dollar denominated debt, pivot to crypto and US risk assets or u actually wont make it
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BGC Priv Journal
Memes moving the hardest. Likely bc consensus is that AI > memes & that most memes are dead . This just illustrates consensus positioning is overweight AI and underweight meme’s (esp ones with real communities) - profit taking / taking the loss at the lows…
this probably started today, not that AI won't do well at all but a clear vibe shift if we see this dispersion continue for a few sessions
at the minimum, the performance difference confirms where consensus is overweight (AI) vs. underweight (memes)
at the minimum, the performance difference confirms where consensus is overweight (AI) vs. underweight (memes)
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