BGC Priv Journal
closed & replaced with Suncat as beta if TRX rly goes for another leg, suncat likely re-rates up and 6mil is not a bad spot to hold a lev position. Out at any signs of a break down in the TRX leg
closed. probably way to early but hard to chill leveraged long on such a pumped chart. TRX +38% -> swap to Suncat beta +51%, both within minutes, i'll take the gains no need to push it
AI and Meme's are starting to get bids again. Consensus expectation is for there to be a market wide flush, contraction in Total3/Others and BTC.D to rise
Most of this move in Total3/others was driven by Last Cycle/Dino alts while meme's for the most part have been sold off already. There's a chance that many of these alts experience a 50%+ drawdown while capital rotates back into meme's and some AI names (look at the CB listed meme's and AI like TAO for reference).
If this happened, Total3/Others could still contract as BTC.D rises from relative drawdown outperformance. The reason is because Meme's/AI (ex. Doge/Shib) are still a very small % of Total3 and Others. Much of what we've experience so far has been in a btc.d rising env while total3/others were stagnant and trending lower. Many of the alts that may experience a large drawdown are in the Top 20-50 coins, which is a big weight on crypto mkt cap. Additionally it's where excess liquidity is concentrated vs. much of that has been shed from large cap meme's (trenches will still need some time).
imagine ur on coinbase and either just got into crypto or are coming back for the first time and u just 5x'd ur money on ripple, xlm, link, etc. and its tanking 30-50%. Then on top movers see moodeng flying up 50% on the day while the alts are bloody. most likely u realize some gains on ur positions and pile into the runner. From there u get the trickle down of new incremental liquidity coming into the meme/ai area thats been primed and shed of excess/frothy money - if i was the cabal i'd try and send these new meme's during an alt nuke.
Ofc there is a chance everything pulls back more together as a whole, or a chance that its up only from here on out, however the above isn't rly consensus and there are signs of liquidity rotating to certain names and showing rotation vs. everything nuke is a real possibility. Much of this cycle has also not been everything up only but more rotational through area's of the market. If alts do get smacked across the board, that is also still a buying opportunity for good names
There is also a chance BTC.d continues to decline due to some macro factors, not sure if its the case but have a theory on it - https://x.com/BlueLightCapit1/status/1863695719892242838 - either way i think if btc.d does rise it'll be through relative outperformance vs. btc up only, i also think the btc.d top has been set and a rise would result in a lower high
Most of this move in Total3/others was driven by Last Cycle/Dino alts while meme's for the most part have been sold off already. There's a chance that many of these alts experience a 50%+ drawdown while capital rotates back into meme's and some AI names (look at the CB listed meme's and AI like TAO for reference).
If this happened, Total3/Others could still contract as BTC.D rises from relative drawdown outperformance. The reason is because Meme's/AI (ex. Doge/Shib) are still a very small % of Total3 and Others. Much of what we've experience so far has been in a btc.d rising env while total3/others were stagnant and trending lower. Many of the alts that may experience a large drawdown are in the Top 20-50 coins, which is a big weight on crypto mkt cap. Additionally it's where excess liquidity is concentrated vs. much of that has been shed from large cap meme's (trenches will still need some time).
imagine ur on coinbase and either just got into crypto or are coming back for the first time and u just 5x'd ur money on ripple, xlm, link, etc. and its tanking 30-50%. Then on top movers see moodeng flying up 50% on the day while the alts are bloody. most likely u realize some gains on ur positions and pile into the runner. From there u get the trickle down of new incremental liquidity coming into the meme/ai area thats been primed and shed of excess/frothy money - if i was the cabal i'd try and send these new meme's during an alt nuke.
Ofc there is a chance everything pulls back more together as a whole, or a chance that its up only from here on out, however the above isn't rly consensus and there are signs of liquidity rotating to certain names and showing rotation vs. everything nuke is a real possibility. Much of this cycle has also not been everything up only but more rotational through area's of the market. If alts do get smacked across the board, that is also still a buying opportunity for good names
There is also a chance BTC.d continues to decline due to some macro factors, not sure if its the case but have a theory on it - https://x.com/BlueLightCapit1/status/1863695719892242838 - either way i think if btc.d does rise it'll be through relative outperformance vs. btc up only, i also think the btc.d top has been set and a rise would result in a lower high
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BGC Priv Journal
AI and Meme's are starting to get bids again. Consensus expectation is for there to be a market wide flush, contraction in Total3/Others and BTC.D to rise Most of this move in Total3/others was driven by Last Cycle/Dino alts while meme's for the most part…
also if there even is a nuke, i dont expect one tommorow, we prob have some juice still in the tank for alts to run
BGC Priv Journal
AI and Meme's are starting to get bids again. Consensus expectation is for there to be a market wide flush, contraction in Total3/Others and BTC.D to rise Most of this move in Total3/others was driven by Last Cycle/Dino alts while meme's for the most part…
(older alts stalling and continued bids coming into large/mid caps on chain (or on-chain native stuff) & newer alts aka most of our bags. feels like it's time for that to shine and get a rotation. Many of them have been shed of rotationary liq and are primed to run
Quality is cheap rn and in not a bad place to bid and wait but i dont think they're going to do anything significant until the market makes a real move higher but rn is a good spot to accumulate. Example: HEHE - getting those vibes again (still somewhat relies on popcat). This is jsut one example, however many things are like this atm. i think we're about to re-run the playbook from a few months ago - quality meme's bottomed out and have had enough chaning of hands to ready them to leg again. Sol AI i think you have to rly be selective, the stuff from wave 1 that has communities, were leaders, and have gone through consolidation are looking bottomed and will likely outperform the more recent runners - sol AI play is likely wave 1 leaders and new runners, but the coins inbetween will likely underperform bc they havn't been "cleansed" enough. Could be wrong on all of this but thats the thesis as of now. Eth is much easier, there's literally less than 10 coins and will all rip lol
BGC Priv Journal
Quality is cheap rn and in not a bad place to bid and wait but i dont think they're going to do anything significant until the market makes a real move higher but rn is a good spot to accumulate. Example: HEHE - getting those vibes again (still somewhat relies…
this is another example of something that's lost the spot light but has been consolidating well
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BasedGod Cap
if we get over this we might be able to run
tldr on the fed - https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1869748295511257580
powels stance was unexpected + existing CPI fears (+ rates been signaling the fear rising over the last month) created a shock even though people de-risked ahead. lead to panic selling + rush for protection spiking vol (vix ramp) triggering systematic unwinds. last night was brutal, crypto having more risk-on/risk-off charachteristics bc of TradFi flows, got caught up in that unwind into relatively low volume / not much real activity throughout the night. probably y there was brutal sell pressure at any flicker of green. The overnight selloff esp happened bc more derisking occured after the fed meeting and throughout the night before PCE today fearing it would come in higher than expected
PCE coming in lower than expected today reduced the inflation fears and pretty obvious risk is being added back and protection is unwinding. is it over? idk, but rn we're probably seeing flows adding back positioning after derisking.
powels stance was unexpected + existing CPI fears (+ rates been signaling the fear rising over the last month) created a shock even though people de-risked ahead. lead to panic selling + rush for protection spiking vol (vix ramp) triggering systematic unwinds. last night was brutal, crypto having more risk-on/risk-off charachteristics bc of TradFi flows, got caught up in that unwind into relatively low volume / not much real activity throughout the night. probably y there was brutal sell pressure at any flicker of green. The overnight selloff esp happened bc more derisking occured after the fed meeting and throughout the night before PCE today fearing it would come in higher than expected
PCE coming in lower than expected today reduced the inflation fears and pretty obvious risk is being added back and protection is unwinding. is it over? idk, but rn we're probably seeing flows adding back positioning after derisking.
BGC Priv Journal
tldr on the fed - https://x.com/Globalflows/status/1869748295511257580 powels stance was unexpected + existing CPI fears (+ rates been signaling the fear rising over the last month) created a shock even though people de-risked ahead. lead to panic selling…
Contrary to CT opinion the market views Trump a risk to inflation resurgence and he will create ongoing volatility. Study 2016 to 2017, his last presidency and when he started throwing around tarrif policy's while also starting the current on-going cold war w/china
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