BGC Priv Journal
"Following the BOJ’s recent rate hike to 0.25% in July, there has been increased volatility in both the stock and currency markets. The central bank aims to assess the impact of this previous increase before making further adjustments, as abrupt changes could…
9/20 note
- the USD side of the risk equation should chill out post cuts
- the Yen side of the risk equation should chil out from BOJ meeting
- FX volatility for usd/jpy should start to reduce
this should help ease up sell pressure on risk assets (reduce the amount of deleveraging thats been going on from people getting squeezed by a falling dollar and rising yen). This is probably why the market responded so aggressively positive to the announcement.
Going to look to Semi's over the next week or so to see how its absorbed (one of the most impacted area's from all this so good signal). Overall, this is great news for the spot we're currently in.
- the USD side of the risk equation should chill out post cuts
- the Yen side of the risk equation should chil out from BOJ meeting
- FX volatility for usd/jpy should start to reduce
this should help ease up sell pressure on risk assets (reduce the amount of deleveraging thats been going on from people getting squeezed by a falling dollar and rising yen). This is probably why the market responded so aggressively positive to the announcement.
Going to look to Semi's over the next week or so to see how its absorbed (one of the most impacted area's from all this so good signal). Overall, this is great news for the spot we're currently in.
9/26 note
US cuts + BOJ pause already a positive to remove sell pressure from risk assets. Also what likely gave china the green light to China to ease and do stimulus - https://x.com/BlueLightCapit1/status/1838630469841117456
remember - https://x.com/BlueLightCapit1/status/1717010694866874873
Copper, semi's, oil to monitor - China's economy IS NOT doing hot (unlike US), want to see continued strength here. If there are signs showing the cuts were in response to something that can be extremely bad / they were forced to do them, the signs will probably present themselves across these first. For now, they're all showing continued strength on back of the tailwinds (CB cut + BOJ pause + China starting to ease)
Can Also monitor sudo china names like Nike to gauge consumer demand
Oil down a bit but supply based decline from opec hiking output vs. demand driven decline (supply based is ok).
US cuts + BOJ pause already a positive to remove sell pressure from risk assets. Also what likely gave china the green light to China to ease and do stimulus - https://x.com/BlueLightCapit1/status/1838630469841117456
remember - https://x.com/BlueLightCapit1/status/1717010694866874873
Copper, semi's, oil to monitor - China's economy IS NOT doing hot (unlike US), want to see continued strength here. If there are signs showing the cuts were in response to something that can be extremely bad / they were forced to do them, the signs will probably present themselves across these first. For now, they're all showing continued strength on back of the tailwinds (CB cut + BOJ pause + China starting to ease)
Can Also monitor sudo china names like Nike to gauge consumer demand
Oil down a bit but supply based decline from opec hiking output vs. demand driven decline (supply based is ok).
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BGC Priv Journal
9/26 note US cuts + BOJ pause already a positive to remove sell pressure from risk assets. Also what likely gave china the green light to China to ease and do stimulus - https://x.com/BlueLightCapit1/status/1838630469841117456 remember - https://x.com/B…
9/26 note cont.
FCX also looking good
imagine the smell if its a precuser. Not banking on it, but the room would smell like sht, many sideliners would be coping
After long periods of low vol/bleed, cant forget this is crypto. 30% 1hr candle moves on eth/btc/sol is not out of the ordinary when bull volatility picks up.
Even if bearish always good to be invested if u have a HTF bullish outlook on the cycle outlook.
- 25% Main's (BTC/ETH/SOL, L1 of choice)
- 25% alt/meme basket
- 25% stables
- 25% trading capital to generate cashfloow to buy more stuff but can also go to cash in seconds bringing u to 50% cash in a bad scenerio.
Thats not how i am allocated (im a degenerate and much more risk on), but if i was bearish at this point of the cycle thats what i would look to be allocated as.
100% stables rn with no exposure is likely not a good idea. You don't want to put in the effort all throughout the post having dip/summer chop to get sidelined for a leg up. Crypto moves fast.
FCX also looking good
imagine the smell if its a precuser. Not banking on it, but the room would smell like sht, many sideliners would be coping
After long periods of low vol/bleed, cant forget this is crypto. 30% 1hr candle moves on eth/btc/sol is not out of the ordinary when bull volatility picks up.
Even if bearish always good to be invested if u have a HTF bullish outlook on the cycle outlook.
- 25% Main's (BTC/ETH/SOL, L1 of choice)
- 25% alt/meme basket
- 25% stables
- 25% trading capital to generate cashfloow to buy more stuff but can also go to cash in seconds bringing u to 50% cash in a bad scenerio.
Thats not how i am allocated (im a degenerate and much more risk on), but if i was bearish at this point of the cycle thats what i would look to be allocated as.
100% stables rn with no exposure is likely not a good idea. You don't want to put in the effort all throughout the post having dip/summer chop to get sidelined for a leg up. Crypto moves fast.
❤1
zoomed out, btc looks rly good.
- First time with 2 monthly green candles since jan/feb
- Second monthly green opened above critical support
- Momentum lined up and rested on MA's before turning up
Chinese liquidity tap turned back on like Oct. 2023 which is when it broke out of it's macro bear range. Day by day is noise, zoomed out things look rly rly fkn good rn
- First time with 2 monthly green candles since jan/feb
- Second monthly green opened above critical support
- Momentum lined up and rested on MA's before turning up
Chinese liquidity tap turned back on like Oct. 2023 which is when it broke out of it's macro bear range. Day by day is noise, zoomed out things look rly rly fkn good rn
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Looking good so far
Despite head line econ numbers, NXPI and QCOM both have a lot of exposure to Chinese OEMs. For both, across mobile, auto, IoT, industrial (NXPI specific) y/y and sequential growth was down for all regions expect China which grew y/y and sequentially which is expected to continue looking towards Q4. Just 2 examples, but strength in chinese demand growth has been a common theme so far in 3Q'24.
Looking across crypto / copper/chinese equities and their inflections in trend, it all seems to point to liquidity filtering through from their easing.
Bullish situation in confluence with US fed policy shift and conclusion of the election cycle.
Despite head line econ numbers, NXPI and QCOM both have a lot of exposure to Chinese OEMs. For both, across mobile, auto, IoT, industrial (NXPI specific) y/y and sequential growth was down for all regions expect China which grew y/y and sequentially which is expected to continue looking towards Q4. Just 2 examples, but strength in chinese demand growth has been a common theme so far in 3Q'24.
Looking across crypto / copper/chinese equities and their inflections in trend, it all seems to point to liquidity filtering through from their easing.
Bullish situation in confluence with US fed policy shift and conclusion of the election cycle.
👍3❤2
Random - Bank's look bullish af, even regional's up 5-10x off the lows.
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