BGC Priv Journal
i've been noticing, recently liike maybe for a week, asia hours is getting bullish again as if they're now in bid mode again. There also keeps being no synchrony. like when america's bullish asia's bearish and vice versa. when it lines up thats gonan be dope.…
part of it has to do with this, some thoughts i had from last quarter. funny enough now there r headlines on "ration to smaller caps now" (cnbc always so late)
further thought is, during this time QQQ's way outperformed BTC. Now that we have to think abut BTC within the context of institutional rotations / flow, why would they be "aping" etf's while semi's / tech outperforming (not so much pensions and FA's but more HF, LO type funds). that dislocation in order of flows prob also partly caused the decoupling and the correlation to weaken with Q's to the upside and crypto to the downside
further thought is, during this time QQQ's way outperformed BTC. Now that we have to think abut BTC within the context of institutional rotations / flow, why would they be "aping" etf's while semi's / tech outperforming (not so much pensions and FA's but more HF, LO type funds). that dislocation in order of flows prob also partly caused the decoupling and the correlation to weaken with Q's to the upside and crypto to the downside
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BGC Priv Journal
part of it has to do with this, some thoughts i had from last quarter. funny enough now there r headlines on "ration to smaller caps now" (cnbc always so late) further thought is, during this time QQQ's way outperformed BTC. Now that we have to think abut…
going back to the origional thought, i've been thinking part of this rotation to reduce big tech exposure and roll into more risky names like small cap value, reits, financials., might also include adding BTC and ETH as a tech replacement.
Crypto has now been decoupling to the upside. While there was clear rotation in trad markets, btc/eth were getting bid. im not bent on it yet, but interesting pattern that have been notcing. Something thinking about in the back of my head and keeping a eye on (usually subtle at first and grows).
Crypto has now been decoupling to the upside. While there was clear rotation in trad markets, btc/eth were getting bid. im not bent on it yet, but interesting pattern that have been notcing. Something thinking about in the back of my head and keeping a eye on (usually subtle at first and grows).
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Forwarded from Wen
When we hit 70k, someone launched a big sell as expected. Market makers provided liquidity and had to play hot potato until they can find demand. Some demand was found at 67k and 66.2k. This is likely the temporary bottom for BTC IMO given the 2nd wave downwards to find demand was much shorter and we should bounce back
The rejection looks bad bc of the distance down, but it's also bc we went up so fast so buyers were unwiling to chase. The more time we spend up here, the more dip buyers get impatient and move up their bids. Buyers of 66.2k should just be the first wave of demand (the more impatient dip buyers)
So taking that all in, was previously bullish BTC to touch 72k, but think im more bullish now
The rejection looks bad bc of the distance down, but it's also bc we went up so fast so buyers were unwiling to chase. The more time we spend up here, the more dip buyers get impatient and move up their bids. Buyers of 66.2k should just be the first wave of demand (the more impatient dip buyers)
So taking that all in, was previously bullish BTC to touch 72k, but think im more bullish now
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https://x.com/muststopmurad/status/1821895724029583448?s=46&t=NRlkQuAPWBELCvf54beFgA
I’m starting to think this dude is the biggest top signal and we need to srsly take his advice but the opposite- stop trying to find the next Wif and start hunting altcoins that are straight up down 90%+
I’m starting to think this dude is the biggest top signal and we need to srsly take his advice but the opposite- stop trying to find the next Wif and start hunting altcoins that are straight up down 90%+
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BGC Priv Journal
feel like there is no way this gap doesn't close one way or another to find equilibrium
ETH very tricky rn. Was doing that pattern where it looks like it's hanging off a cliff then as more people press short, buyers come in to push it higher. Another hint to not get trapped short during the Sunday scam action was onchain was getting spooked and underperforming while pepe, ondo, pendle (classic CEX eth beta) was outperforming. Smarter money typically operates in those larger coins vs. onchain is smaller $ and more retail/emotional. Those CEX coins also have underperformed onchain throughout the entire bounce so far, so to see that divergence of them getting a bid while onchain was lagging for the first time while eth "techincally" looked like shit, to me it was a sign to not get trapped short heading into monday open.
Also making a note not to react on high volume hours - market open/close. I think that selling in stocks at the open today is part of the unwind continuing but in a normal flowing manner vs. panic/forced selling. So extrapolating signal from open/close is probably wasted effort
Also making a note not to react on high volume hours - market open/close. I think that selling in stocks at the open today is part of the unwind continuing but in a normal flowing manner vs. panic/forced selling. So extrapolating signal from open/close is probably wasted effort
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BGC Priv Journal
https://cryptobriefing.com/boj-rate-decision-unchanged/
"Following the BOJ’s recent rate hike to 0.25% in July, there has been increased volatility in both the stock and currency markets. The central bank aims to assess the impact of this previous increase before making further adjustments, as abrupt changes could add more instability to the market.
The BoJ’s latest decision to hold rates steady comes against a backdrop of shifting monetary policies from the US central bank."
TLDR - Powel called Japan and was like Bro chilll hahahahahhahha
The BoJ’s latest decision to hold rates steady comes against a backdrop of shifting monetary policies from the US central bank."
TLDR - Powel called Japan and was like Bro chilll hahahahahhahha
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BGC Priv Journal
"Following the BOJ’s recent rate hike to 0.25% in July, there has been increased volatility in both the stock and currency markets. The central bank aims to assess the impact of this previous increase before making further adjustments, as abrupt changes could…
9/20 note
- the USD side of the risk equation should chill out post cuts
- the Yen side of the risk equation should chil out from BOJ meeting
- FX volatility for usd/jpy should start to reduce
this should help ease up sell pressure on risk assets (reduce the amount of deleveraging thats been going on from people getting squeezed by a falling dollar and rising yen). This is probably why the market responded so aggressively positive to the announcement.
Going to look to Semi's over the next week or so to see how its absorbed (one of the most impacted area's from all this so good signal). Overall, this is great news for the spot we're currently in.
- the USD side of the risk equation should chill out post cuts
- the Yen side of the risk equation should chil out from BOJ meeting
- FX volatility for usd/jpy should start to reduce
this should help ease up sell pressure on risk assets (reduce the amount of deleveraging thats been going on from people getting squeezed by a falling dollar and rising yen). This is probably why the market responded so aggressively positive to the announcement.
Going to look to Semi's over the next week or so to see how its absorbed (one of the most impacted area's from all this so good signal). Overall, this is great news for the spot we're currently in.
9/26 note
US cuts + BOJ pause already a positive to remove sell pressure from risk assets. Also what likely gave china the green light to China to ease and do stimulus - https://x.com/BlueLightCapit1/status/1838630469841117456
remember - https://x.com/BlueLightCapit1/status/1717010694866874873
Copper, semi's, oil to monitor - China's economy IS NOT doing hot (unlike US), want to see continued strength here. If there are signs showing the cuts were in response to something that can be extremely bad / they were forced to do them, the signs will probably present themselves across these first. For now, they're all showing continued strength on back of the tailwinds (CB cut + BOJ pause + China starting to ease)
Can Also monitor sudo china names like Nike to gauge consumer demand
Oil down a bit but supply based decline from opec hiking output vs. demand driven decline (supply based is ok).
US cuts + BOJ pause already a positive to remove sell pressure from risk assets. Also what likely gave china the green light to China to ease and do stimulus - https://x.com/BlueLightCapit1/status/1838630469841117456
remember - https://x.com/BlueLightCapit1/status/1717010694866874873
Copper, semi's, oil to monitor - China's economy IS NOT doing hot (unlike US), want to see continued strength here. If there are signs showing the cuts were in response to something that can be extremely bad / they were forced to do them, the signs will probably present themselves across these first. For now, they're all showing continued strength on back of the tailwinds (CB cut + BOJ pause + China starting to ease)
Can Also monitor sudo china names like Nike to gauge consumer demand
Oil down a bit but supply based decline from opec hiking output vs. demand driven decline (supply based is ok).
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BGC Priv Journal
9/26 note US cuts + BOJ pause already a positive to remove sell pressure from risk assets. Also what likely gave china the green light to China to ease and do stimulus - https://x.com/BlueLightCapit1/status/1838630469841117456 remember - https://x.com/B…
9/26 note cont.
FCX also looking good
imagine the smell if its a precuser. Not banking on it, but the room would smell like sht, many sideliners would be coping
After long periods of low vol/bleed, cant forget this is crypto. 30% 1hr candle moves on eth/btc/sol is not out of the ordinary when bull volatility picks up.
Even if bearish always good to be invested if u have a HTF bullish outlook on the cycle outlook.
- 25% Main's (BTC/ETH/SOL, L1 of choice)
- 25% alt/meme basket
- 25% stables
- 25% trading capital to generate cashfloow to buy more stuff but can also go to cash in seconds bringing u to 50% cash in a bad scenerio.
Thats not how i am allocated (im a degenerate and much more risk on), but if i was bearish at this point of the cycle thats what i would look to be allocated as.
100% stables rn with no exposure is likely not a good idea. You don't want to put in the effort all throughout the post having dip/summer chop to get sidelined for a leg up. Crypto moves fast.
FCX also looking good
imagine the smell if its a precuser. Not banking on it, but the room would smell like sht, many sideliners would be coping
After long periods of low vol/bleed, cant forget this is crypto. 30% 1hr candle moves on eth/btc/sol is not out of the ordinary when bull volatility picks up.
Even if bearish always good to be invested if u have a HTF bullish outlook on the cycle outlook.
- 25% Main's (BTC/ETH/SOL, L1 of choice)
- 25% alt/meme basket
- 25% stables
- 25% trading capital to generate cashfloow to buy more stuff but can also go to cash in seconds bringing u to 50% cash in a bad scenerio.
Thats not how i am allocated (im a degenerate and much more risk on), but if i was bearish at this point of the cycle thats what i would look to be allocated as.
100% stables rn with no exposure is likely not a good idea. You don't want to put in the effort all throughout the post having dip/summer chop to get sidelined for a leg up. Crypto moves fast.
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zoomed out, btc looks rly good.
- First time with 2 monthly green candles since jan/feb
- Second monthly green opened above critical support
- Momentum lined up and rested on MA's before turning up
Chinese liquidity tap turned back on like Oct. 2023 which is when it broke out of it's macro bear range. Day by day is noise, zoomed out things look rly rly fkn good rn
- First time with 2 monthly green candles since jan/feb
- Second monthly green opened above critical support
- Momentum lined up and rested on MA's before turning up
Chinese liquidity tap turned back on like Oct. 2023 which is when it broke out of it's macro bear range. Day by day is noise, zoomed out things look rly rly fkn good rn
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